Wagner Group Accuses Russian Army of "Stealing Credit" for Soledar Battle

Analysts believe this is a precursor to Wagner and the Russian army fighting each other with weapons as well as words. JL

Thaisa Semenova reports in Kyiv Independent:

The Kremlin-backed Wagner mercenary group publicly accused Russia's Defense Ministry of stealing credit for what it claims to be a victory in the battle for the salt-mining town of Soledar. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, claimed that the group established control over the whole of Soledar. Three days later, the Russian Defense Ministry also claimed that Soledar fell to Moscow control, however, without mentioning Wagner (which) accused the ministry of "demotivating" the mercenaries and "stealing other people's merits." Ukraine denies the town was captured, saying the fierce battle is still ongoing.

What Happens When Your Face Is Deep-Faked Into An Ad?

It's happening more often, not with Photoshop - the usual popularly understood culprit - but with deepfake synthesization. And there are laws that offer victims redress - but the damages are so insignificant monetarily - that few people bother. JL

Amanda Florian reports in Wired:

While scrolling through Taobao, a Chinese marketplace owned by Alibaba, my friend came across an ad for a camping stove. It was like looking in a mirror - my long eyelashes and distinct jawline, my prominent nose, and long hands. I used TinEye, Google, Bing, Yandex, and others—to reverse-search the photo across international sites I found the photo reposted 74 times on marketplaces from Germany to Japan. The images were manipulated not with Photoshop but with deepfake synthesization tools. In 2020, China passed the Civil Code of the People’s Republic of China, which protects a person’s personality rights and portrait rights. “You can sue (but) it's small potatoes in terms of damages.”

Russia Is Transferring Troops From Belarus To Soledar As It Struggles To Advance

Despite repeated Kremlin assertions of victory, Russian forces are struggling around Soledar as they did at Bakhmut, causing the army to transfer forces there that were training elsewhere in Russia - and in Belarus - recently considered the possible locale of a second front against Ukraine. 

This news is significant as it suggests Russia recognizes it doesnt have the men or materiel to attack more broadly. JL 

Matthew Bigg and Megan Specia report in the New York Times:

Moscow’s forces struggle on in their bid to capture Soledar, a small salt-mining town in the east that has largely been reduced to rubble. Russia was moving troops trained in Belarus and Russia to the combat zone to focus on Donetsk and Luhansk. The battle over Soledar has become emblematic of Moscow’s labored and costly offensive in eastern Ukraine. After days of intense street fighting, uncertainty over which side controlled the town of Soledar in Donetsk Province remains, though there was no doubt about the devastation wrought. "The enemy is suffering great losses."

As the War In Ukraine Rages On, the West Prepares To Stay the Course

Despite its repeated failures in Ukraine, Putin refuses to give up. The western decision to supply Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons is a sign that this stubborn battle of wills has been acknowledged and that the existential threat to civilization Russia poses has to be met now. JL 

Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:

So far, Russia’s expectations of discord among Ukraine’s backers haven’t materialized. Europe has severed its dependence on Russian energy with limited pain and no political cataclysms. As all major Western economies grew in 2022 despite the disruptions, the consensus behind supplying weapons to Kyiv has only solidified. The U.S. and allies are also investing in new ammunition production lines, but these are unlikely to make a major difference until next year. "We should not underestimate Russia. I know Russia And it’s either them or us. There is nothing in between now anymore.”

Why Bakhmut Is Not A Strategic Position But Is Still Important To Ukraine

This is about how Russia fights wars: destroy everything in your path with artillery, rockets and tanks. Then claim the rubble as a sign of victory. 

While the decimation of Russian forces and equipment is important, the larger issue is that Russia is going to fight somewhere in Ukraine. Since they are obsessed with Bakhmut, believing it to be their best chance of "victory," Ukraine can limit damage to the rest of the country by keeping the Russian focus in one relatively insignificant place so that other parts of the country are spared the same treatment. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos :

In Soledar, Ukrainian forces on the western edge of the town are keeping Russian forces back from the important railway and highway just west of Soledar. Bakmut, Soledar, Bakmutske, Optyne, and every other town or village nearby has already been reduced to a rubble. Why would Ukraine want to repeat this disaster in another area if they can keep fighting at Bakhmut? Forget the “because Russian casualties are high” reasoning. Russian casualties will be high anywhere the battle moves. Feeding the meat grinder is just how Russia fights. Bakhmut is important because it’s a sacrifice to protect other towns, villages, and cities from suffering the same fate.

How Beaver Dams Help Protect Ukraine From Belarus Invasion

This is reminiscent of Ukrainians around Kyiv breaking dams to flood fields when Russia first invaded a year ago, which also helped foil the Russian attacks. 

This time, instead of breaking man-made dams, people are not destroying the beaver dams as usual. JL 

MSN reports:

The animals are unwittingly helping Kyiv by building dams that keep the ground marshy and impassable. This helps Ukraine by making it less likely that an attack could come via Belarus, which borders Ukraine not far north of the capital Kyiv. Defense forces there have been reassured by conditions on the ground, left impassable by miles of burst river banks, thick mud, and waterlogged fields. "When [the beavers] build their dams normally people destroy them, but they didn't this year because of the war, so now there is water everywhere."

Experts: Russian Attritional Soledar Tactics Will Accelerate Its Forces' Degradation

Not sounding like a great outcome win or lose. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Soledar is "not an operationally significant development and is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut." Russia has "over exaggerated" the importance of the salt-mining town of Soledar and its capture would amount at best to a "Pyrrhic" tactical victory, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). If Russia captures Soledar, (it) won't enable Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication into Bakhmut, "nor better position Russian forces to encircle the city." After committing "significant resources to a highly attritional tactical victory it will accelerate degraded Russian forces' likely culmination near Bakhmut."

How Ukraine's Utility Workers Blunted the Impact of Russian Missile, Drone Attacks

An experienced, dedicated workforce that recognizes the essential nature of their jobs has striven to keep as much power on as possible despite repeated Russian attacks. They are now aided by enhancements like artificial intelligence which can identify problems and where workarounds are possible. 

There efforts are perceived to have caused the Russian attacks to be labelled failures - and possibly led to this week's replacement of Russia's army commander. JL 

Hanna Arhirova reports in the Associated Press:

Against the odds and sometimes at the cost of their lives, they keep power flowing. They’re holding battered plants together with bravery, dedication, ingenuity and dwindling stocks of spare parts. Each additional watt of electricity they manage to wring into the power grid defies Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military’s efforts to weaponize winter by plunging Ukrainians into the cold and dark. Operators have armored vests and helmets to wear during missile attacks so they can stay at their posts. “The Russians bomb and we rebuild. We will restore as long as we have something to repair with."

Russia Is Returning Severely Wounded Soldiers To Fight In Ukraine

It is difficult to imagine that severely wounded soldiers ordered back to the frontlines - including those suffering from punctured lungs or heart attacks - being very effective. 

But if their only role is to serve as cannon fodder in order to locate Ukrainian positions or to set off land mines so better trained units can advance, then the behavior makes some sort of sense, however demented and immoral. JL

Joshua Zitser reports in Business Insider:

There are "an unacceptable number" of documented cases of commanders sidestepping military doctors and instead sending wounded soldiers straight from the hospital to the Ukraine frontline - (including) severely injured soldiers - without the approval of military doctors. Soldiers with shrapnel wounds were returned to fight, without the shrapnel being removed and two Russian soldiers with punctured lungs were sent into combat. There have also been cases of soldiers receiving treatment for ulcers, heart attacks, and strokes being sent back to Ukraine.

While Soledar Battle Remains Vicious, Ukraine May Be Entering Kreminna

While claims and counterclaims circulate about who controls what is left of Soledar, a suburb of a small city, Ukraine may have quietly advanced into Kreminna, a far more significant target, due to Russian redeployment of troops to Soledar, which became its target when Bakhmut proved unassailable after heavy losses. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

This morning Ukraine still controls a portion of Soledar, but fighting continues, and losses have been significant on both sides. Russia’s massive assault has gained them ground, though there (are) numerous videos of Russian soldiers being taken out by artillery, drones, or heavy machine guns.  Because it’s been so long since Russia had anything that even looked like a marginal victory (since July)  pro-Russian sources are trying to turn Soledar into “proof” of every claim of the Kremlin - as Ukrainian forces were advancing on Kreminna. Some reports indicate the Ukrainian military has entered Kreminna.

The Reason China's Latest Covid Wave Became So Severe

The abrupt cancellation of China's Zero Covid policy left the population even more vulnerable than before. Harsh restrictions allowed for little natural immunity. China, out of national pride, insisted that its people use domestically produced vaccines which were proven to be nowhere near as effective as the mRNA vaccines used in the west. 

Many elderly Chinese resisted vaccination due to China's long history of vaccine problems and are now especially vulnerable. This will have a cascading effect as China's relaxes its travel policy just as the winter new year begins during which as many as 2 billion may travel internally to visit older relatives, many of whom may be infected and contagious. The combination of inadequate vaccination and unregulated travel is likely to exacerbate the virus' spread. JL 

Lily Kuo reports in the Washington Post:

China is in the middle of what may be the world’s largest covid-19 outbreak after authorities abruptly loosened almost three years of strict pandemic restrictions in December following nationwide protests.  The sudden dismantling of China’s “zero covid” regime  has left the country’s health system unprepared and overwhelmed. The population was immunized with domestically made vaccines not as effective as mRNA vaccines.The policy left the Chinese population with little natural immunity to the virus. Many elderly residents - already skeptical of vaccines, which have had a troubled past in China - did not get vaccinated. Officials predict a second wave over the Lunar New Year holiday, when the total number of passenger trips is expected to reach 2.1 billion as travel is unleashed.

Military Analysts Report Russian Artillery, Missile, Drone Fire Down 75 Percent

Russia's ammunition shortage is affecting operations across the battle front, but perhaps especially at Bakhmut and Soledar. JL 

Natasha Bertrand and colleagues report in CNN:

Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%. The striking decline in artillery fire is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion. Questions about Russia’s stockpile of weapons have focused on precision-guided munitions, such as cruise and ballistic missiles. But dramatically reduced rates of artillery fire may indicate that the prolonged and brutal battle has had a significant effect on Russia’s supply of conventional weapons as well.

The Reason Crowd-Funded Technology Gives Ukraine A Battlefield Edge

The small suppliers and delivery networks are hard for Russia to monitor or stop and are effective because the army units they supply give them real time feedback on which equipment is most effective - from drones to encrypted radios to software for targeting. JL 

James Marson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Small-scale crowdfunded operations have been instrumental in helping Ukraine turn the tide against Russia. Hundreds function outside military procurement channels, delivering vital equipment to the front line, from encrypted radios to Starlink terminals. The commercially available equipment brought across the border from Poland with no paperwork has helped the army use Western weapons, as well as Soviet-era models, more effectively by providing data that helps aim their fire, conserving ammunition. The informal, decentralized networks are hard for authoritarian Russia to stop or replicate. Volunteers get instant feedback from the front on which makes and models work best.

Ukrainian Surgeons Remove Unexploded Grenade From Wounded Soldier's Chest

Not your run of the mill surgical procedure. JL 

Samantha Lock reports in The Guardian:

A Ukrainian soldier has had successful surgery to remove an unexploded grenade from his chest. Surgeons removed the weapon from just beneath the heart of the injured serviceman, while two sappers ensured the operation was conducted safely. The operation was carried out without using electrocoagulation — a common method to control bleeding during surgery — because “the grenade could detonate at any moment. ”The team of sappers neutralised the munition.

How Hackers Exploit the Vulnerabilities of Cars' Electronics, Remote Services

Automakers have followed tech companies' lead and made convenience the priority while relegating cybersecurity to afterthought status. 

But a growing number of 'relay attack' car thefts using telematics and other remote services - including wifi and Bluetooth - have created a security problem which could lead to higher rates of theft, accident - and insurance costs unless the companies take action. JL

Jonathan Gitlin reports in ars technica:

If you purchased a new car in the past few years, it contains an embedded modem to offer connected services. But these systems are a security nightmare. In 2015 researchers remotely disabled a Jeep Cherokee while it was being driven via the infotainment system. Since then, security flaws have been found in cars' Wi-Fi networks, NFC keys,  Bluetooth, and third-party telematics systems. Armed with a vehicle identification number, hackers were able to access the remote services for cars including unlocking the cars and starting engines. It was also possible to take over a user's account with a VIN. Digital license plates are also exploitable.

Soledar Battle Continues To Rage As Kremlin Undercuts Wagner Success Claims

The Russian defense ministry and the Wagner Group seem as interested in claiming credit and undermining each other as they are in actually capturing Soledar - which they have, so far, failed to do. JL 

Holly Ellyatt reports in CNBC:

There were confusing reports Wednesday as to whether Russian and Wagner Group forces had taken control of the town, after the head of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed his force had captured the town. The Kremlin said Wednesday, however, that reporters should await a statement from the Ministry of Defense on the status of Soledar. Later, the ministry said its own elite airborne units had surrounded Soledar. The update from the Russian Ministry of Defense was seen as a bid by the Russian military - which has been criticized by Prigozhin - to undermine the Wagner Group leader.

The Reason Putin Just Removed His First Successful Ukraine Invasion Commander

In General Surovikin, Putin had finally found the brutal, effective commander he desired to subdue Ukraine. 

Surovikin launched the missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, similar to those he used against Syrian civilians. But those attacks have failed, and Surovikin's competence evidently threatened Putin loyalists, giving them an opening. This is part of a larger internal battle between Kremlin military loyalists and Wagner's Prigozhin, who desires to head the entire Russian military - as well as eventually replace Putin. Putin understands that so is playing then all off against each other. Which is why he has replaced the relatively effective Surovikin - a Prigozhin ally - with Gerasimov, the incompetent responsible for the Ukraine invasion's failure to begin with. As a result, military leaders in Ukraine will be toasting this latest change. JL 

Will Vernon and Laura Gozzi report in the BBC, Anatoly Kurmanaev reports in the New York Times:

General Gerasimov re-replaces Sergei Surovikin who has overseen recent brutal attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The move is seen as a sign that Surovikin may have gained too much power. Putin remains focused on  maintaining the power balance among key allies, rather than correcting the military’s flaws. “They have taken someone who is competent and replaced him with someone who is incompetent, but who has shown that he is loyal.” Criticism of Russian commanders has created an opportunity for Wagner's Prigozhin who angling to replace Defense Minister Shoigu, a longtime Putin confidant.

Ukrainian Artillery Sinks Russian Warship On Dnipro River Near Kherson

Ukrainian targeting has been relentless all across the front, the point being to keep Russia guessing. JL 

Peter Suciu reports in 19fortyfive:

A Russian cutter was destroyed on the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast. The small military vessel was wrecked near Bilohrudyi Island after coming under fire from Ukrainian forces. “The vessel was hit with artillery.” It is unknown if any of the crew survived, or what type of artillery was employed but there is speculation it may have been targeted by a U.S.-made HIMARS. As of last fall, the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet had seen at least a dozen of its warships and military rivercraft sunk or badly damaged –15% of its total force.

Poland Is Delivering Leopard Tanks To Ukraine As UK, Finland Plan To Follow Suit

Days after several European countries floated their intention to potentially deliver modern main battle tanks to Ukraine, Poland has followed through and announced the delivery of a company of such tanks, generally ten to twelve. 

It is now expected that other countries will also contribute tanks, including the UK, Finland and Lithuania. JL 

The Kyiv Independent reports:

Polish President Andrzej Duda has announced the delivery of a company of modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. A tank company generally consists of ten to a dozen tanks. On Jan. 6, Finland announced that it would be ready to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine "if Europe starts giving" them. U.K Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has been given instructions to move “further and faster with our support for Ukraine including the provision of tanks.”

Russia Uses Convicts To Absorb Ukraine Fire: Those Refusing To Advance Are Shot

The Russian/Wagner troops at Bakhmut and Soledar have as much - or more - to fear from their own side as they do from the Ukrainians. JL

Jake Epstein and John Haltiwanger report in Business Insider:

Russia is using prisoners and freshly mobilized troops to absorb heavy Ukrainian fire along the war's front lines in order to clear the way for its better trained forces to take ground. Moscow's current tactic of "trading individuals for bullets" has been used on the battlefield throughout Russian history. "Those who disobey are eliminated and it's done publicly." There are "squadrons of liquidators" that deal with troops considered to be problematic. Many Russian prisoners sent to the front line by Wagner are drug addicts and "completely insane." Some "are fucked up and bulldoze their way through." These fighters "are very different from ordinary mercenaries." The higher up is killed if his team deserts.

Why Putin's Attempts To Divide West Over Ukraine Continue To Fail

He has zero credibility as anything other than a vicious, self-serving tyrant, which is not a good basis from which to offer any terms others might take seriously. JL

Max Fisher reports in the New York Times:

Putin dangled a 36-hour cease-fire that would have taken place this past weekend. But, in a pattern now familiar, Western and Ukrainian leaders rejected the proposal, calling it a cynical effort to create space for resupplying Russian forces. Western support has helped to turn what Mr. Putin expected to be a rapid Russian victory into a costly and uncertain slog. As if to underscore how little success Mr. Putin has found in opening cleavages within the West, on the same day that he announced this past weekend’s cease-fire, Washington and Berlin announced that they would supply Ukraine with armored fighting vehicles. “If Putin wanted peace, he would take his soldiers home and the war would be over.”

The Reason Russia's Soledar Attacks Seem Desperate Rather Than Strategic

The media are full of stories that Russia may finally be winning a victory for the first time since they invaded Ukraine. 

The implication, for some, is that Ukraine is therefore losing and should negotiate immediately. But those who remember last summer's battles around Severodonetsk, which also seemed hopeless for Ukraine, set the stage for its dramatic successes in Kharkiv and Kherson. Wagner's Prigozhin is desperate to deliver any kind of advance, no matter how insignificant. Ukraine remains focused on the more strategic goal of weakening Russia's forces and regaining captured territory as it has so dramatically done since the first days of the invasion. The calculus of how many dead and wounded Ukrainians are worth even more dead and wounded Russians is the question facing the Ukrainian military as they decide whether to continue holding or fall back to prepared positions. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Soledar does not appear to be in imminent danger of falling to Russia, though the situation is “difficult” and Wagner released geolocated footage of soldiers in the city’s center (though bullets fly nearby, proving the situation remains fluid). (But) Ukraine is pushing toward Svatove and Kreminna in the north. Ukraine’s efforts have a strategic goal: If they can break through at Svatove, they can push east toward Starobilsk and cut off Russia’s entire northern supply line. If Ukraine attacks toward Melitopol, it would cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and cut Russia’s forces in two.

Why Venture Capital Firms Are Getting Burned By Holding Stocks Longer

The 2021 bull market proved hypnotic even for the most experienced VCs. Many changed their strategy of exiting after an IPO in hopes of hanging on a while longer and capturing excess returns. Instead, the collapse of the markets in 2022 has left many with significant losses. 

The lesson is that markets always revert to the mean and the illusory lure of grabbing short term gains all too often remains just that - illusory. JL 

Berber Jin reports in the Wall Street Journal:

During the recent bull market, venture-capital investors that typically exit a stock after taking it public held on to shares in the hope of maximizing returns. Seeing the sharp rise of stocks like Zoom Technologies Inc. after their public listings, they decided to hold on to shares in the hopes of capturing those gains in the supercharged public market. Instead, the sharp selloff in technology stocks in 2022 has dealt a punishing blow to that strategy. Some of the splashiest startup stocks from 2021 plunged, making it unlikely those investors will recover the value of their earlier positions anytime soon, if at all. These losses further mar a dismal year for VCs (due to) a slowdown in startups and public listings.

Russian Troops Attacking Soledar Over the Bodies of Own Dead and Wounded

Russia is prepared to lose as many men as it takes just so it can say it won at least one insignificant battle over the past year. 

Ukraine is hoping to bleed Russian forces dry in order to then launch another counteroffensive. JL 

Peter Beaumont reports in The Guardian:

Russian forces, led by Wagner troops, have taken heavy losses in the fighting around Bakhmut. “The enemy is advancing literally on the bodies of their own soldiers and is massively using artillery, rocket launchers and mortars, hitting their own troops.” With the low ridges to the west dominated by Ukraine’s artillery, secondary lines of defence already in place should Bakhmut fall, and substantial Ukrainian reinforcements already deployed in depth, most analysts believe Moscow will continue to struggle with its offensive. “Soledar is covered with corpses of the invaders. This is what madness looks like.”

As UK Offers Tanks To Ukraine, France and Poland Push Germany To Join In Doing Same

NATO seems determined now to provide Ukraine with heavy main battle tanks. Germany remains reluctant but it seems increasingly likely that some sort of agreement to do so will be reached this winter - and possibly within weeks. JL

Hans Von Der Burchard and colleagues report in Politico:

France and Poland are pushing the EU’s biggest economy to equip Kyiv with its powerful Leopard 2 tank, while Britain is reportedly considering sending about a dozen of its Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. If Britain did so, this would make it significantly harder for Berlin to hide behind its current argument that it does not want to act alone in sending heavy weaponry. Paris is turning the screws on Germany in the hope of extracting an agreement from Berlin to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on January 22.

The Reason Microsoft Plans To Invest $10 Billion In OpenAI-ChatGPT

ChatGPT bolsters Microsoft's cloud business and puts it in the forefront of commercially applicable AI development. So, a strategic win-win. JL 

Liz Hoffman and Reed Albergotti report in Semafor:

The funding, which would also include other venture firms, would value OpenAI, the firm behind ChatGPT, at $29 billion, including the new investment. The $29 billion is a big valuation for OpenAI, a company that hasn’t yet figured out its business model, and $10 billion is a big price tag for Microsoft’s shareholders. Beyond the financial risks and rewards for Microsoft, the bigger prize is that it gets to work alongside OpenAI in developing the technology on Microsoft Cloud, which instantly puts Microsoft at the forefront of what could be the most important consumer technology over the next decade.

Defense Contractors Developing Technologies To Help Ukraine Shoot Down Drones

Ukraine and NATO want the counterdrone technologies to be as cheap, effective - and made from commercially available parts - as the Iranian drones themselves. And that goal seems within reach. JL 

Daniella Cheslow reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian troops have shot down the majority of the drones fired by Russia using a mix of surface-to-air missiles, air-to-air missiles, antiaircraft guns and man-portable air defense systems known as manpads. Several counterdrone technologies are in development. Some strike the drone itself; others detonate near a drone and “explode out like a shotgun blast. ”The Vampire, an acronym for Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment, uses high-definition sensors to track threats—including drones—then intercepts them with laser-guided munitions. The system is designed to fit in the bed of a commercial pickup.

Why Russian Bombs and Blackouts Have Failed To Cripple Kyiv

Residents of Kyiv view trying to maintain a normal existence despite the missile attacks and power outages as an act of defiance. 

They are determined that their behavior serve as a constant defiant rebuke to Putin and Russa. JL 

Siobhan O'Grady and Anastacia Galouchka report in the Washington Post:

As Kyiv settles into its first winter since Russia invaded last February, residents are coping with the harsh realities of the grinding war: a constant threat of airstrikes, regular power outages, fears of nuclear attack. They are also carrying on. Dance studios and nail salons are open operating with battery-powered lights. Cafes and restaurants, often running on generators, are packed. The resilience of Kyiv residents is proof that Putin has failed in his plan to make life unbearable. “That’s how it has to be. This is our last winter like this. Next year we will be free.”

The Strategic Rationale For Ukraine's Attritional Battle Against Russia At Bakhmut

The bloodletting in Bakhmut and Soledar is setting the stage for the next Ukrainian offensives as similar battles last summer did for its Kharkiv and Kherson victories in the fall. JL 

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

The battle in Bakhmut has been fought in two phases: for the first 100 days the Russian regular army was involved, and from then the Wagner Group, has been the bloodier one, as the Russians have assaulted the city using brigades made up of the convicts. Many of these units were essentially throwaway soldiers. Ukraine persists in the city’s defense because “their losses are important for us." Last summer, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk vindicated attritional fighting. They weakened the Russian Army enough for two Ukrainian counterattacks to succeed in Kharkiv in the north and Kherson in the south, delivering two of the most embarrassing defeats of the war to Putin

Ukrainian Forces Capture Intact Russian S-300 Air Defense Missile System

Apparently it was trundling down a Ukrainian road on which it shouldnt have been driving. 

The capture adds to Ukraine's air defense capabilities - and detracts from Russia's - at a critical time. JL 

Peter Suciu reports in 19fortyfive:

The launcher was captured fully intact by Ukrainian forces shortly after the New Year. It would apparently be the first time Kyiv’s forces have captured one of Moscow’s air defense systems. The S-300 was designed for the air defense of military bases and large industrial and administrative facilities, as well as against enemy aircraft. A number have been modified by Russia to perform surface-to-surface strikes, and the S-300 has been among the missiles used to target Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure.

Ukraine's Dnieper River Water Level Has Dropped, Raising Russian Fear of Ukrainian Attack

Ukraine used selective flooding to stop the Russians around Kyiv last February and March so it is not unreasonable to think they might use intentional water level drops to facilitate offensives now, especially as the normal freeze is later than usual this year. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukrainian troops could take advantage of a sharp dip in the Dnieper River's water levels to cross the current front line at Zaporizhzhia and "start action anywhere" on this southern line of fighting. The river, which can be as wide as 10 miles, constitutes a natural obstacle between the  two countries' forces.  Kyiv's forces (may have) engineered the drop in water levels through the closing of hydraulic locks at various points along the Dnieper. Manipulating the water levels of the Dnieper River is not an idea unfamiliar to both sides.

When Will Ukrainians Forces Launch Their Next Offensive"

Ukraine will launch its next set of attacks when they determine they have destroyed enough Russian equipment and troops to assure an offensive a reasonable chance of success. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Ukrainian decision on when to move forward will come when they determine that the Russian forces facing them in terms of soldiers, and equipment that can be maintained and supplied, has reached a low enough level that an offensive has a reasonable (chance of) success. For over a century raw numbers of soldiers has not been decisive. Modern industrial war requires top equipment and well-trained soldiers far more than masses of poor conscripts. We can see that in the Russian experience so far. Putin’s second army, formed since the conscription in September, has performed worse than the professional force. They have died in huge numbers and achieved only small gains.

The Reason Thousands of Former Russian Ethnics Are Fighting For Ukraine

Thousand of ethnic minorities who are Russian citizens - including Chechen, Georgians, Belarussians, Tatars, Kyrkiz, Azerbaijanis and Chinese Uyghurs - have volunteered to serve in units of the Ukrainian army against Russia. 

They are motivated by a history of bigotry, abuse and deportation exacerbated under Putin but that goes back to Stalin's crimes against their people. JL 

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

Ukraine has welcomed thousands of volunteers, many of them, refugees from Russia or  from surrounding nations, like Georgia, that have a history of opposition to Putin. Several Chechen units have joined Ukraine. Fighters from Belarus have formed a regiment thousands strong. Other come from the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as from ethnic minorities (like) Tatars and Turkic-speaking groups. Most of are motivated by historical grievances of dispossession and suppression by Moscow. Chechens and Tatars were among many decimated by forcible deportations under Stalin in the 1940s. Their knowledge of Russia and hatred of Moscow, has made them good operators for Kyiv.

Bakhmut and Soledar Continue To Hold, Contrary To Expectations - Again

As usual, early reports of Ukrainian difficulties tend to be exaggerated by Russian bloggers, whose reports are picked up by sympathetic western media. 

Both Bakhmut and its northern suburb of Soledar are holding, even as Russia again doubles down on fruitless assaults that only deplete its human and ammunition resources. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Even Russian sources have backed off claims of broken Ukrainian lines in the key suburb northeast of Bakhmut. Soledar has its salt mine. Like the Azovastal steel factory in Mariupol, the salt mine has a network of underground facilities that facilitate the storage of armaments, the ability of Ukrainian defenders to barricade themselves, and to move around under potential Russian occupiers. It helps that Russia has apparently run out of armor, and is relegated to sending out small squads of cannon fodder, in broad daylight, to advance on Ukrainian defensive positions without any artillery or air support.

Why Smart Leaders Recognize AI-Optimized Workflows Aren't Always Best

AI is really good at optimizing for efficiency. But as most successful leaders recognize, that is but one variable among many for which leadership teams need to account. And as the experience of the past several years have taught with regard to supply chains, automated AI efficiency can become detrimental to strategic goal achievement when it is not capable of  calibrating the impact of other, frequently intangible, factors essential to organizational performance. 

Forward-thinking leadership understand that AI-generated processes can be beneficial but human oversight remains crucial for outcome-oriented optimization. JL

Vitaly Alexandrov reports in Venture Beat:

Workflow and process inefficiencies can cost 40% of a company’s annual revenue. (But) AI lacks the human ability to look beyond optimizing for business efficiency. That means it has no capacity for “human” variables like workers’ preferences. The limitations of AI scheduling can lead to unbalanced shifts or unhappy workers, culminating in AI “help” getting in the way of smooth workflows. The flaw in AI algorithms is a lack of “human parameters.” As soon as you add nuance, emotion or general intelligence, as with scheduling tasks, humans need to have the final say to balance optimized workflows with employee satisfaction and long-term company growth.

How the Citizens of Sumy, Ukraine Kept Russian Forces Out of Their City

50% of life is just showing up. And if you're willing to fight, in addition, before long your opponent becomes discouraged and afraid. JL

Isobel Koshiw reports in The Guardian:

Sumy’s residents were left, confused and in shock, to defend the city on their own as Russian forces rolled towards them. The Sumy self-defence forces, which formed on the first day of the invasion, managed to hold the city for six weeks, despite being encircled. “Everyone started working for the victory. Friends from the university were bringing us boxes of molotov cocktails. Grandmothers texting us the locations of the Russians. Because of this, the city was able to withstand the invasion.” Though there were only a few thousand civilians with rifles, a few dozen anti-tank weapons and no armed vehicles or heavy weaponry, by mid-March the Russians were scared to enter the city.

Among Ukrainian Troops In Bakhmut, Anger and Determination

Bakhmut is the distillation of modern industrial war: just give us enough ammunition to obliterate the enemy and lets get this over with once and for all. JL 

Illia Ponomarenko reports in the Kyiv Independent:

The grueling Battle of Bakhmut has lasted five months, but Russian forces, despite insane pressure and massive losses, have not yet managed to capture the city. Attempts to isolate the Bakhmut garrison from the north (via Soledar) and the south (via Kurdiumivka) have had limited results. The infantry of Bakhmut — sick, tired, full of bitter resentment - repel at least three major attacks every single day. "The Russians roll on, and on, and on. They never stop throwing their scum at us. We don’t give a fuck if that’s Wagner or anyone else, we’ll keep fighting.”

Despite 5 Years of Hype, Why 5G Was Invisible At CES

Because this is tech. Everyone's moved on to 6G. JL 

Allison Johnson reports in The Verge:

When it wasn’t being overshadowed by covid resurgences, CES, for the past few years, has partially functioned as a big 5G pep rally. But as cars, smart home standards, and so many screens took center stage at this year’s show, 5G took a back seat. For starters, we’re all sick of hearing about it. More than the above, the time has passed where wireless CEOs feel they need to sell 5G to the public (and their shareholders). It’s not a niche new service anymore; it’s the default option. Basically every new phone sold on their shelves is 5G compatible, and mid-band 5G finally exists on all major carriers in large parts of the US.

In Ukrainian Workshops, the Quest To Build the Perfect Drone-Dropped Grenade

Lethal innovation based on creativity and experimentation. JL 

Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Natalia Yermak report in the New York Times:

How do you create a grenade that weighs next to nothing but can be dropped from a drone and destroy a 40-ton Russian tank? Ukrainian troops are trying to raise drones’ effectiveness by using them to deliver what they consider the perfect grenade. The challenge is building that grenade. “We are dropping everything that we can find.” The main thing to consider “is the weight of a grenade that the drone can move.” (They) modify weapons to work in ways that they were not originally built. "If you have a drone for $3,000 and a grenade for $200, and you destroy a tank that costs $3 million, it’s very interesting.”

The Ukraine War Has Forced NATO To Improve Its Logistics To Great Effect

The EU and NATO have begun coordinating so that the delivery of crucial military materiel to Ukraine - and eventually for potential European defense is not hampered by rules, regulations, designs and bureaucratic hurdles drafted in an era of peace. 

The result has been an unprecedented logistical triumph as the west supplies Ukraine with the equipment it needs to fight Russia. But all recognize that this is the requirement for a safe future. JL 

Daniel Michaels reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The EU invests billions of euros annually in transportation but has rarely made military mobility a concern. EU funding (now)  aligns with needs identified by NATO. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses across European militaries, (including) the difficulty of transporting military equipment across the continent. Arming Kyiv’s forces and buttressing defenses in NATO members nearest to Russia, have required lots of ad hoc workarounds to logistical hurdles so designs for civilian road, rail and maritime infrastructure include military needs.

Why Russian Casualties In Ukraine Threaten Putin Less Than Retreat

The Russian people appear inured to casualties, as they were in WWII. But they need a sense of hope that the sacrifices lead to victory, not to loss of territory and growing futility. And it is that which Putin has been unable to prevent, so far - and which may ultimately be his undoing. JL

Lawrence Freedman reports in Comment Is Freed:

Russia is stuck with a form of warfare that depends on artillery barrages and indifference to casualties which limits its options. The underlying trends of this war favor Ukraine. It is learning to cope with the repeated Russian attacks on its critical infrastructure, while getting bolder in its attacks on Russian territory. The West are offering support for future land offensives. Here lies the biggest danger for Putin - more retreats rather than more casualties. The risk for Putin remains less dissatisfaction with the death toll but that the military effort into this war continues to yield little, so that sacrifices become sullied by a sense of futility.