Why Ukraine Could Escalate Attacks On Russia With European But No US Aid

The US has been a significant provider of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. But collectively, European countries have actually given more to Ukraine than has the US, in large measure because they better understand the threat Russian poses. 

Should Russian-influenced Republicans in the US Congress prevent additional US aid in the short term, Ukraine would be freer to launch attacks on lightly defended Russian border areas as well as assets deeper inside the country as they have demonstrated they have the capacity to do. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The EU has started to accept and adjust to the reality that the US cannot be trusted to maintain its position as the single largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine. There were a number of promising signs that they - sooner than expected - (will) fill the void. Through October, US aid ($43.9 billion) to Ukraine was less than the $44 billion given by Germany, Britain, Norway, Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden and the EU institutionally. If the US goes home and leaves Europe to its own resources, the Ukrainians could escalate. The border between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, is lightly defended. And the Russian army remains a deeply flawed organization that takes massive casualties for minimal gains.

This was a weekend when in a number of small (and one large) way European states and the EU started to accept and adjust to the reality that the US cannot be trusted to maintain its position as the single largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine. Europe still has a long way to go before it is anywhere close to where it needs to be, but there were a number of promising signs that (finally) they might sooner than expected have to try and fill the void left by a dithering USA. Of course, even if this realization is happening, any major change wont happen in time to affect the battlefield for a while, which means if the US does stop aid to Ukraine now (still very much an open question) then some drastic steps would have to be taken to keep Ukraine supported in 2024.

Supporters of Ukraine membership of the EU is Brussels. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/12/europeans-open-to-ukraine-joining-eu-survey-shows-before-key-summit

Europe has already given more than the USA.

The relative growth of European military aid for Ukraine vis a vis the USA has been something that has been happening for a while. Here is the graph of the situation by the end of October 2023, and at this point US aid ($43.9 billion) to Ukraine was actually less than $44 billion given by the eight largest European contributors (Germany, Britain, Norway, Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden and the EU institutionally).

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There is still alot of disparity amongst European contributors (France not being in the top seven for Europe is rather shocking) but overall it was an indication that Europe collectively had already given more than many understood.

When it came to combined economic and military aid to Ukraine, btw, the Europeans had been far more generous than the USA. The EU institutionally has alone given/pledged more than the USA, which means that overall European support for Ukraine is more than double that of the USA.

In % of GDP terms, by the way, the differential is the most stark. By that measure every EU state and Norway and the UK has given a greater share of their national wealth than the USA to help Ukraine. Indeed the difference is significant.

Source: https://x.com/EHunterChristie/status/1734903836110700669?s=20

So, the argument that Europeans have not been doing their share is wrong—certain states have made massive commitments to Ukraine (the Baltics, Nordics, Poland and the Netherlands stand out). Btw, British people who boast of British aid need to understand that the British contribution to Ukraine is far less relatively, because EU states contribute directly and through the EU while the UK only contributes directly. Its not to downgrade UK support—but the UK could/should do far more.

The last week

Now, some European states seem to understand that the US might indeed stop the aid it is giving now. The House adjourned for the holidays, leaving aid for Ukraine in 2024 very much in limbo. There is still a significant chance that a bill will be approved (the deal is there—more money for border security and in exchange the Ukrainian aid is ok’d), but with this House of Representatives—I would never say anything is definite.

Even if aid is eventually approved, however, the US has shown itself to be far more unreliable that many Europeans had assumed. There had been a realization for a few months, that the election of Trump in November 2024 could lead to a cut-off of US support for Ukraine (probably would), however I dont think anyone expected it before the end of 2023. That possibility is what Europe is faced with now.

It seems to have led to an acceleration in different efforts, from a range of states and the EU. For example

• A new Norwegian package of mixed military and economic aid, with a particular aim to get Ukraine through this winter.1

• A new Danish pledge of more than $1 billion in military aid.2 This includes ammunition, UAVs and Tanks. Denmark is also one of the countries that has been more important in getting F-16s to Ukraine.

• Estonia not only pledged a new $80 million in military aid to Ukraine, the country’s leadership has pledged to send aid worth .25% of the GDP of Estonia to Ukraine every year for the next four years.3

• Germany delivered a second Patriot anti-air defense system to Ukraine, as well as a mix of other weaponry and ammunition.4

• Finland announced plans (and the Finns normally fulfill their pledges) to invest enough to double their production of ammunition, including 155mm shells—many of which will be earmarked for Ukraine.5

• The new Polish government led by Donald Tusk seems poised to aid Ukraine even more. No specific aid package was announced (the government just took office) but Tusk spoke of the need for full ‘mobilization’ of Ukraine’s supporters. Signs are the new Polish government will be even more supportive of Ukraine than the outgoing one.6

The on top of this, the EU took a step that would have been highly unlikely before February 24, 2022—it announced that Ukraine (and Moldova and Georgia) was now formally invited to start the accession process to full membership.7 Now, Ukrainian membership of the EU is a tangible and expected outcome of this catastrophe.

At the same time the EU plan for an additional 50 billion euros in aid for Ukraine was proposed and then held up by the Hungarian government of pro-Putin sympathizers. This latest pro-dictator actions by Hungary should be surmounted in the short term—but the EU does need a way to make sure the aid get there going forward.8

Assuming the 50 billion gets there, in just the last week European states have promised Ukraine more financial support than US has given in military aid since February 24, 2022. Its a hopeful sign—but it of course is no replacement for US military aid. If the US does cut aid now, Europe will be left having to scramble mightily to keep Ukraine supplied to fight, even with much reduced capabilities, in 2024.

Keeping Ukraine in the Fight in 2024

If the US does cut off aid now, as I talked about last week, Europe would have to drop all niceties and find a way to keep Ukraine in the fight for the year, while making plans to improve the situation in 2025.

Weekend Update #58

PHILLIPS P. OBRIEN

·

DEC 9

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Those who say that Ukraine would automatically lose, dont know what they are talking about. This war has shown that moving forward is still very very difficult to do for both sides. The Russians have lost vehicles in large numbers and Europe, even though it has spent far less than the USA over the last few decades, has a great deal that it could give. Certainly in the area of fighting, Ukraine would be hard pressed, would have to go on a hard defensive, minimize casualties and try to exact a high toll on the Russians when the latter moved forward. With far more limited 155 ammunition, the ability to slow Russian advances and attrit Russian forces would fall more heavily back to the hand-helds or UAVs. Europe could and has provided significant aid in this area.

And the Russian army remains what it is—a deeply flawed organization that takes massive casualties for minimal gains. Indeed, almost the entire Russian military that crossed the border on February 24, 2022 has been wiped out, according to US intelligence.

Some 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, nearly 90 percent of its pre-war force, a congressional source said Tuesday.

The Russian military has also lost some 2,200 of the 3,500 tanks it had before the start of the conflict, the source said, citing a declassified US intelligence assessment shared with Congress.9

What has come since seems to be trained in a less efficient and more rushed manner. The idea that it would be able to pull off combined arms/maneuver warfare, is questionable. It would certainly have the firepower advantage without US aid, and could probably move forward (slowly) where it concentrated mass. However, the idea that Ukraine would be steamrollered by a fast moving Russian military that could go streaking down the roads, seem doubtful.

If the US also pulls out, there is every reason to expect that Ukraine and its stronger European supporters, would press forward and do things that so far they have not because the US has been a serious brake on operations. Yes, the US has provided Ukraine with a great deal of weaponry, but its been weaponry of very limited range, and moreover with huge strings attached about how it can be used (only in Ukraine—and really only in parts of Ukraine—the US has been reluctant to give Ukraine weapons that can be used in Crimea).

If the US goes home and leaves Europe to its own resources, the Ukrainians could escalate in certain ways. The entire border between Ukraine and Russia proper and Belarus, is actually very lightly defended as the Russians have been given the great benefit of being able to concentrate almost all their army in Ukraine itself. Ukraine would be free now to try and cross that border in strength (remember how weak Russian internal defenses were when Wagner marched on Moscow)? And the relatively undefended border between Ukraine and Belarus/Russia is considerably longer than the line now being fought over in Ukraine now. Its stretches for over 1000 kilometres (see between the two black marks on the map.

So the US pulling out could actually lead to as escalation. It would take Ukraine’s European supporters to basically open the taps and give Ukraine everything they could—but dont assume it would mean Ukrainian defeat. It could even lead to the broadening of the war, as Ukraine would have no reason to hold back and allow Russia the massive advantage its had so far of leaving its border undefended. We have so far aided Ukraine in a way that helped Russia in a number of ways—that would be over.