A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 2, 2023

Ukraine's Cross-Dnipro Troops Have Been Reinforced, Expanded Their Bridgehead

Despite reports of increased Russian bombardment of the Ukrainian troops on the Dnipro east bank bridgehead, the impact has been negligible because of poor coordination between Russian units at the front and artillery or air force units further back.

The Ukrainians used recent poor weather to transfer more troops and supplies to the bridgehead which has widened and deepened, preparing the way for the next phase of the offensive. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Weather conditions enabled Ukrainian forces on the east bank of the Dnipro to rotate forces, while shipping supplies and ammunition more easily. The Ukrainians have successfully transferred additional units to the eastern bank. They advanced southwest of Krynky and established a foothold in a nearby forest, preparing to launch the next phase of the offensive. Captured conversations from Russian soldiers said communication between detachments and branches is virtually non-existent. Russian strikes are not based on reconnaissance collected by Russian drone operators, while Ukrainians HIMARS target Russian command centers, force concentrations, and air defenses.

Ukrainian forces leverage adverse weather for tactical advantages in Kherson Oblast, conducting HIMARS raids and troop rotations, posing threats to Russian command centers, and exposing communication weaknesses.

Today, there are a lot of interesting developments in the Kherson region.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Here, Ukrainian forces secured new positions in the forest, transferred additional reinforcements, and launched an extensive HIMARS raid intending to destroy Russian command centers, forces concentrations, and a lot of air defense systems.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Last time, I told you that the weather conditions had deteriorated, significantly affecting the ongoing operations along the river. The bad weather presented the biggest challenges to the reconnaissance teams, both Russian and Ukrainian. However, the limited visibility also gave a lot of opportunities, especially for Ukrainians, because they could conduct rotation of forces and ship supplies of ammunition much more easily.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

In fact, Russian sources reported that over the last few days, Ukrainians have successfully transferred additional units to the eastern bank of the river and that up to 400 Ukrainian personnel are now operating near Krynky.

Moreover, today, some Russian sources admitted that Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Krynky and established a foothold in a nearby forest area. Russian analysts started raising the alarm that Ukrainians used the time wisely and were fully prepared to launch the next phase of the offensive operation.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Recently, the weather improved, and the Russian Air Force resumed their airstrikes on the region. Russian sources reported that Russians used FAB-250 bombs to target potential Ukrainian positions.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Interestingly, Russian soldiers on the ground expressed their pessimism about the effectiveness of the strikes because they said that the communication between different detachments and especially branches of the military is virtually non-existent, and the strikes do not happen based on the reconnaissance collected by the Russian drone operators. In part, this explains how Ukrainians managed to cross the river and hold the ground so successfully.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

It seems like the scale of the offensive operation is going to increase even more because the moment the weather improved, Ukrainians started targeting Russian command centers, forces concentration, and air defense systems relentlessly.

Ukrainian fighters from the thirty-fifth brigade recently released footage showing HIMARS strikes in Korsunka. The video features multiple strikes, and, according to the fighters, they destroyed several houses that Russians used as barracks for soldiers and at least one warehouse with equipment, which could be seen from the rising fire.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Another video shows how the Ukrainian Special Force identified a Russian command and control vehicle near Nova Maiachka. The immediate HIMARS strike destroyed the vehicle together with the Russian commanders.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainian forces also struck a building in occupied Yuvileine during a Russian occupation law enforcement meeting. Russian sources reported that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike killed four occupation police and injured 18 others.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainians also focused their attention on the Russian air defense systems. Since Ukrainians are actively using drones in the Kherson region, the destruction of air defense systems is indispensable for ensuring freedom of movement. The first strike happened near Novoselivske. Here, the HIMARS crews destroyed an air defense rocket launcher Buk-M2.

Several days prior, Ukrainians also identified and destroyed an even better version of the system, more precisely, an air defense rocket launcher Buk-M3.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Several days ago, Ukrainians also published a video of the training of the marines. The marines were learning how to ford the river in large numbers with heavy equipment.


And we saw that Ukrainians have already transferred at least one armored fighting vehicle to Krynky, so it is possible that Ukrainians are looking for the moment when Russian forces are in the weakest and most disorganized position to launch an attack.

Overall, Ukrainians used the bad weather to their advantage and brought in fresh troops to the bridgehead. The moment the weather reasonably improved, Ukrainians conducted a series of devastating strikes on the Russian force concentrations, command centers, and air defense to undermine the Russian defensive capabilities. So, very soon, we may see a lot of interesting developments in the region.

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