Ukraine Air Defense Success Causing Reduced Russian Plane, Glide Bomb Attacks

After Ukrainian air defenses shot down five Russian warplanes in two days, the Russians have significantly reduced its number of flights, which has also decreased the number of Russian glide bomb attacks. 

This is an important tactical - and, potentially, strategic, victory for Ukraine as it seeks to offset Russia's advantage in weapons. JL 

Joseph Trevithick reports in The Drive:

Russian airstrikes, especially those involving glide bombs, have dwindled after a spate of recent losses. Just in the past week, Ukraine's Air Force has claimed to have shot down five Russian combat jets, four Su-34 Fullbacks and a Su-30SM Flanker. A shift in focus and asset deployment on the part of Ukrainian air defenders has disrupted Russian air operations. "Ukraine is now able to intercept and destroy the overwhelming majority of incoming ordnance."

Russian airstrikes, especially those involving glide bombs, have dwindled after a spate of recent losses, according to Ukrainian authorities. Just in the past week, Ukraine's Air Force has claimed to have shot down five Russian combat jets, four Su-34 Fullbacks and a Su-30SM Flanker, over eastern and southern regions of the country and the western end of the Black Sea. Though all of these claims remain unconfirmed, The War Zone had previously highlighted evidence of a shift in focus and asset deployment on the part of Ukrainian air defenders and noted that it could lead to exactly this kind of disruption in Russian air operations.

Ukrainian Air Force Col. Yuri Ignat, the service's top spokesperson, said that Russian air operations had notably decreased, particularly over the southern Kherson region, following the spate of claimed shootdowns, in a recent interview. Lt. Col. Volodymyr Fityo, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Army, separately said there had been a drop in Russian aerial activity in the skies over and around the cities of Kupiansk and Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine recently.

On December 22, Ukraine's Air Force said it had downed a trio of Su-34s along areas of the southern frontlines, which includes Kherson. The Ukrainian Air Force subsequently announced the destruction of another Su-34 in the skies near the occupied city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine and the downing of the Su-30SM over the western Black Sea. The service stated both of those shootdowns occured on December 24, but said initially that more information was needed to determine if the Su-30SM had actually been knocked out.

 

The War Zone has not been able to independently verify any of these shootdowns and, at the time of writing, the Russian government does not appear to have confirmed or denied any of these claimed losses. The Russian-language Fighter channel on Telegram, which has strong ties to Russia's Air Force, said that there were losses on December 22, but denied that the Su-34 and Su-30SM were destroyed on Christmas Eve.

It's also unclear what weapons may have been used to shoot down any of these Russian aircraft, but there has been speculation that U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile systems may have been employed. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Ignat did tout longer-range Western-supplied air defense capabilities, which includes Patriot, in his interview about the recent losses and their apparent impacts.

"The enemy realizes that our systems, including the long-range ones provided by our partners, can be deployed to other areas, not just where the Russian Su-34s were downed. We can undertake such operations on different fronts; the issue is getting more of these systems," Ignat said. "We are looking forward to the assistance that has already been announced, including the supply of additional Patriot, Iris-T systems, etc."

A separate press release today from the U.K. Ministry of Defense highlighted recent successes by Ukrainian air defenders and lauded the country's work in bolstering its ability to defend against Russian aircraft, missiles, and drones.

"While Ukraine was highly vulnerable to attack from Russian aircraft, drones, and missiles in the early months of the invasion – with support from the UK and our allies, its Armed Forces are now able to intercept and destroy the overwhelming majority of incoming ordnance – protecting their civilian population and vital infrastructure," U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in a statement included in the release.

 

The War Zone had already noted at the beginning of December that there appeared to be a shift in Ukrainian air defense tactics, techniques, and procedures following an unusual claimed shootdown of a Russian Su-24M Fencer swing-wing combat jet over the Black Sea. Ukraine's Air Force had also shot down another Su-34, as well as an Su-35 Flanker-E fighter and three Mi-8/Mi-17 Hip-series helicopters, all in one day as they flew in Russian airspace with Patriots back in May.

The claims about the recent Su-34 and Su-30SM losses only reinforce the prior assessments. This all also appears to be particularly tied to countering Russia's steadily increasing use of 'dumb' bombs (and now cluster munitions) with stand-off glide bomb kits this year, which you can read more about here. Those weapons, which have maximum ranges of a few dozen miles, have given Russian pilots an additional way to attack targets while staying further away from hostile air defenses and have become a major tactical issue for Ukrainian forces.