The Strategic Reason Ukraine Will Continue To Attack Russian Forces in Crimea

Eastern Ukraine is a wasteland of ruined cities filled with smoking rubble and obliterated industrial plants. It will take years to restore before it can generate any sort of economic value. 

Rural southern Ukraine is farmland that can be reconstituted once demined. But the one area of immediate strategic importance to Russia is occupied Crimea, where Russian airfields, naval facilities and logistics hubs constitute an essential military asset. Ukraine has already proven its vulnerability to long range missile and drone attack as well as commando raids. So it will continue to degrade Russia militarily and economically there in the short term, thus aiding Ukraine's war aims. JL 

General Ben Hodges, former Commander, US Army Europe, retired, reports in the BBC:

Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine. The most strategically important part of Ukraine occupied by Russia is Crimea, which is the "decisive terrain". Ukraine will keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, air force bases and logistics base at Dzankoy. They have proven the concept. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. War is a test of will, and of logistics. Russian logistics is fragile and under continuous pressure from Ukraine.

Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.

But Ukraine will not stop. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops. More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve.

 

I do, however, anticipate that early in the new year the US will rediscover its strategic backbone and pass the aid package that was delayed in Congress in December.

Therefore, I anticipate Ukraine will do the following in the coming months as it prepares to regain the initiative:reconstitute units which have been worn down from months of fighting, which will be necessary for a renewed offensive

• improve the recruiting system within Ukraine to maximise available manpower

• increase production of ammunition and weapons

• improve its ability to operate against strong Russian electronic warfare capabilities - jamming, intercepting, locating.

By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defense

 

The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia is Crimea, which is what we call the "decisive terrain".

Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.

They have already proven the concept. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.

The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.

But the Russian soldiers are in worse shape. War is a test of will, and a test of logistics. The Russian logistics system is fragile and under continuous pressure from Ukraine.