Russia's "Active Defense" of Avdiivka Claim Reveals Failure of Offensive Efforts

Russia's claims of 'active defense' at Avdiivka is being interpreted as an admission of failure to conduct successful offensive operations there, as well as at most other sectors of the Ukrainian front. 

This suggests the Russians are no longer confident of their military's ability to make operationally significant advances and that they are content to limit Ukrainian gains as a war fighting strategy, which is especially revealing of failure as Ukraine is not attempting any offense in the eastern part of the country. JL

Olha Hlushchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

The "defensive" framing by the Russian command of offensive actions around Avdiivka, as well as other places in eastern Ukraine, shows it is not confident in the ability of the Russian military to transform tactical achievements into operationally significant successes. Russia is talking about the "active defence" of Avdiivka to hide "the lack of any major Russian progress." Active defence" allows the Russian military to claim success as long as Russian forces do not allow Ukrainian forces to make significant gains, which achievable, since Ukraine is not conducting offensive operations in the area.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have stated that the Russian military leadership is talking about the "active defence" of Avdiivka to hide "the lack of any major Russian progress around Avdivka" and to explain the inability of the Russians to "translate tactical gains into operationally significant advances."

Source: ISW

Details: Analysts note that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is continuing to distort the characterisation of Russian offensive actions in Ukraine as part of "active defence" to lower expectations of the Russian military's ability to achieve operationally important goals.

Shoigu said on 1 December during a conference call with the Russian military leadership that Russian troops were conducting "active defence" in Ukraine and were seizing more advantageous positions on every operational front.

Experts say that the Russian minister noted those brigades that are likely to be operating in areas where Russian troops are conducting offensive operations in the east of Ukraine, rather than defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Shoigu and Putin have previously referred to Russian offensive operations to capture Avdiivka as "active defence" after the first Russian mechanised offensive failed to achieve significant tactical gains in early October 2023.

Since the beginning of October 2023, Russian forces have launched two subsequent large-scale offensives to capture Avdiivka and are continuing to attack the town at a high rate using exhausted infantry.

The review emphasises: "Russian officials’ characterisation of these offensives as being part of an ‘active defence’ are intentionally misleading."

Ukrainian forces have never conducted large-scale offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Avdiivka has been a known static Ukrainian defensive position since 2014.

Despite this, the Russian leadership continues to present the operations falsely around Avdiivka as "active defence", which likely explains the lack of any significant Russian progress around Avdiivka, despite more than two months of large-scale Russian attacks.

Experts say that the Russian military command would have to pursue a clearly defined operational goal if it recognised the operations to capture Avdiivka as an offensive.

This means that "active defence" allows the Russian military leadership to claim success as long as Russian forces do not allow Ukrainian forces to make significant gains, which is an entirely achievable goal, given that Ukrainian forces are not conducting and have never conducted counteroffensive operations in the area.

The "defensive" framing by the Russian command of offensive actions around Avdiivka, as well as local offensive operations in other places in eastern Ukraine, shows that it is not confident in the ability of the Russian military to transform tactical achievements into operationally significant successes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is concerned about declining Russian support for the war ahead of the 2024 presidential election, so he has likely decided to downplay the extent of Russian operations to the Russian public.

"The increasing disconnect between heavy Russian losses in these offensive efforts and the Russian command’s framing of these operations may nevertheless fuel discontent in the wider Russian information space," the review concludes.