Russia Suffered "Complete Annihilation" of 5 Battalions In Failed Avdiivka Assault

The enormous scale of Russian losses continues to defy every tenet of modern warfare leadership. 

The Ukrainians are taking advantages of Russia's blind obstinacy - and fear of the Kremlin. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Losing at least 211 vehicles and 13,000 soldiers killed and wounded amounts to the “complete annihilation of five battalions. This represents significant losses considering the achieved results.” The vehicle toll “surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle, making it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses.” It’s getting harder for the Kremlin to equip new brigades as its losses deepen. Monthly losses of BMP fighting vehicles exceeded 100 before Avdiivka; now they’re higher. “After sustaining heavy losses, it's unclear whether Russians are  capable of success. “To enter operational space and advance would require combat-ready troops (in) multiple brigades.”

The Russian army has lost at least 211 armored vehicles trying, and so far failing, to surround and cut off the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, just northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk city in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight scrutinized satellite imagery and verified all 211 wrecked and abandoned vehicles. Its tally aligns with a U.S. intelligence assessment, which concluded the Russians have lost 220 vehicles around Avdiivka—and 13,000 people, too.

Most of the losses occurred in the first month of the Avdiivka battle starting in early October. After a few weeks, desperate Russian commanders switched up their tactics, and sent in the infantry on foot.

The vehicle toll “surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle,” Frontelligence reported, “making it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses.”

Losing at least 211 vehicles and 13,000 soldiers killed and wounded amounts to the “complete annihilation of five battalions,” according to Frontelligence. “This represents significant losses in both equipment and personnel, considering the achieved results.”

The roughly dozen regiments and brigades the Kremlin has staged around Avdiivka have advanced a mile or so north and south of the city but haven’t made inroads into the city itself—or cut off its main supply lines.

This could change. The Russians made another big push toward Avdiivka on Tuesday and advanced a few hundred yards into an industrial park southeast of the city. They also escalated their around-the-clock drone attacks on the roads into Avdiivka.

But the math is brutal for the Russians, and helps to explain why the front line in Russia’s 22-month wider war on Ukraine mostly has frozen in place in the aftermath of Ukraine’s disappointing summer counteroffensive. Neither army can advance very far, very fast across dense minefields and pre-sighted artillery and drone kill-zones.

“After sustaining heavy losses, it remains unclear whether Russians will be capable of exploiting their success, even if Avdiivka will be eventually occupied by them,” Frontelligence concluded. “To enter operational space and advance further, they would require combat-ready troops consisting of multiple brigades.”

But it’s getting harder for the Kremlin to equip new brigades as its losses deepen. The Russians have lost thousands of tanks and fighting vehicles in Ukraine. Average monthly losses of the main BMP fighting vehicles exceeded a hundred before the attack on Avdiivka; now they’re higher.

But Russia’s main BMP factory, Kurganmashzavod, produces just a few hundred new BMPs a year. And reserve stocks of older BMPs are running low, too. One analysis of satellite imagery found just 586 old BMPs left at the sprawling 769th Storage Base in Ulan-Ude, more than half of which seem to be beyond repair.