Russia Has Lost Half Its Combat Effectiveness, Will Need 5-10 Years To Recover

Russia's greatest loss has been of elite, experienced personnel like paratroopers and tank operators who take years to train. JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

After 21 months of all-out war, "the Russian military has been badly weakened." The many months of attritional warfare have exacted a high cost on Russia and the conflict has torn apart much of Russia's military strength. "Russia has lost half the combat effectiveness of its army." Many of Russia's most experienced, elite crews, particularly tank operators, were killed in the opening weeks of war. It would take somewhere between five and 10 years for Russia to rebuild the modern capabilities of its armed forces. Ukraine has been upgraded and replenished by its Western supporters.

Russia's military is "badly weakened" from the grueling war in Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said, as Russian and Ukrainian troops face another second winter of fighting.

After 21 months of all-out war, "the Russian military has been badly weakened," Austin said during an address at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday.

The many months of attritional warfare has exacted a high cost on both Russia and Ukraine, but Western analysts and governments have suggested the conflict has torn apart much of Russia's military strength."Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army," Admiral Tony Radakin, the head of the U.K.'s armed forces, said in early July.

In early May, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, said it would take somewhere between five and 10 years for Russia to rebuild the modern capabilities of its armed forces.

 

"The reorganization that the Russian military took in the early 2000s meant that they would be better, faster, smaller, if you will, from what they were in the Soviet era," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"That army largely is gone, and they are relying on reserves and reserve equipment; older Soviet era kinds of kit," he said. "It is going to take them a while to build back to
more advanced kit."

"It will take years for the Russians to build back up their ground forces," agreed Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, at the same Senate hearing. Russia has "really significantly degraded" its ground forces, but still has a powerful strategic force, she added.

 

"Despite his isolation, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin believes that he can outlast the Ukrainians," Austin said on Saturday. "But he is wrong."

Western analysts and officials have long said that the Kremlin leader expected Russian forces to sweep through Ukraine and take the capital, Kyiv, within a matter of days.

 

"Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by August 2022," the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank said in November.

Russian materiel losses were substantial in this initial push from February 2022. Many of Russia's most experienced and elite crews, particularly tank operators, were killed in the opening weeks of all-out war.

 

And although Ukraine has lost a significant number of fighters and equipment, it has also had its stocks upgraded and replenished by its Western supporters.

 

"The United States and our allies and partners have worked to get many key weapons systems—including HIMARS, and Patriots, and Abrams tanks, and more—into the hands of trained Ukrainian operators," Austin said.

The U.S. has sent 39 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine, adding to Kyiv's ability to strike Russian targets, with the Patriot air-defense systems Ukraine now in operation to help shield Ukraine's skies.

But Western aid cannot change the tougher weather conditions Ukrainian fighters are facing, pitted against dug-in Russian troops in the south and east of the country.

 

"Poor weather conditions continue to slow the pace of Ukrainian and Russian combat operations across the entire front line, but have not completely halted them," the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War said on Saturday.