A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 23, 2023

Ukraine's Counterattacks At Avdiivka Reverse Russian Advances

Ukraine continues to employ a counterpunching strategy along the front lines, and has found it successful tactic for disrupting and reversing Russian plans to attack. This has been especially true at Bakhmut, Kupiansk and now Avdiivka. 

The result is that the much anticipated third offensive at Avdiivka has been repeatedly delayed by opportune  anticipatory Ukrainian attacks. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces took advantage of the decreased intensity of Russian attacks due to regrouping and conducted a successful counterattack. The Russians lacked forces on the contact line, and it was obvious that the central part before Steptove was understaffed and weak. Ukrainians launched a mechanized assault, firing from Bradley to suppress enemy fire and conducted a successful assault with infantry storming Russian positions. As a result, the remnants of the Russian forces were eliminated, and Ukrainians established control over the railroad position. The Russians had to put on hold their plans to attack

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Avdiivka direction.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Here, Ukrainian forces took advantage of the decreased intensity of Russian attacks due to regrouping and conducted a successful counterattack.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Over the last several weeks, the main vector of the Russian attack was toward Stepove. Russian forces made dozens of attempts to cross the rails and establish control over the village, however, Ukrainian fighters from the forty-seventh brigade held the region tightly, and the furthest Russians managed to advance was just the first 3 houses on the outskirts, located less than 250 meters from the Russian positions in the tree lines.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Russians realized that they did not have enough leverage to apply the necessary pressure on the Ukrainian defense to move forward, which is why they developed a new plan. The main idea was to expand control over the tree lines along the railways and capture the fields northwest of Krasnohorivka. The reason behind changing their focus to this particular region was twofold. First of all, by establishing control over additional dense tree belts, Russians would acquire more convenient positions for accumulating forces. Secondly, after accumulating even more forces than previously, Russians would be able to attack Stepove not from 2 but from 3 sides, undermining the stability of the Ukrainian defense.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Soon, Russian forces launched their attacks and started clearing the tree lines in the fields. Ukrainian fighters from the Thirty-first Mechanized Brigade released combat footage showing how they were attacking Russians in the trenches right in front of the railways. This was the railway line north of Krasnohovika, so the video confirms that Russians managed to reach it.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainians understood that the next logical step would be to attack the dense tree belts north of Stepove. Simultaneously, Ukrainians noticed a decrease in the overall intensity of attacks. So, even though the fights in this particular area were tough, there were much fewer attacks down the contact line because Russians were regrouping in preparation to deploy fresh units for the new wave of attacks.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainians understood that Russians lacked forces on the contact line, and given significant usage of forces in the northern part, it was obvious that the central part was understaffed and weak.

So, instead of counterattacking the Russians, where they concentrated their troops, the Ukrainians attacked them right in front of Stepove.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainian fighters from the forty-seventh brigade, who are responsible for this region, showed artillery preparation with cluster shells.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

After that, the Ukrainians unleashed their kamikaze drones to eliminate the survivors. As you can see, some of the trench networks are in the open with no shelters, leaving Russians no chance to hide from drone attacks. Many of them just ran away from desperation, understanding that Ukrainians would take full advantage of their helpless situation.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

After artillery and drone preparation was completed, Ukrainians launched a mechanized assault. Ukrainian opened fire from Bradley to suppress enemy fire and conducted a successful landing. The infantry quickly moved to the tree line and started storming Russian positions. As a result, the remnants of the Russian forces were eliminated, and Ukrainians established control over the rails. Another video shows how Ukrainians are collecting guns and other equipment from the fallen Russian soldiers. The tree belts were eventually completely cleared, and Ukrainians started moving further.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The successful Ukrainian counterattack took an important section of the front line, without which Russians cannot attack Stepove. Moreover, due to the fragility of their situation, Russians had to put on hold their plans to attack the northern section of the front line. Ukrainians are expecting a Russian counterattack and are already preparing additional trenches and fortifications to face the attackers.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

If Russians linger with the counterattack for too long, and Ukrainians manage to recapture the main strongpoint in the region located on the intersection of tree lines, then Ukrainians will completely negate Russian tactical gains that they tried to achieve for more than one month.

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