Ukraine Increasingly Attacks Russian Units Before They Reach the Avdiivka Front

Russian advances on Avdiivka have become so predictable that Ukrainian forces are increasingly targeting them before they reach the front zero contact line. 

Though Russian commanders seem unfazed by record losses of men and materiel, loss estimates based on current levels suggest the Russians will run out of reserves within 90 days. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces are increasingly relying on infantry frontal assaults to compensate for a lack of adequately trained personnel and widespread equipment losses. The main Ukrainian tactic is to start destroying Russian assault units before they reach the front. Ukrainian destruction of Russian assault units has become routine because Russians do not try to use new routes, so Ukrainian drone operators and artillery have created death zones where Russian assault units get reduced while getting to the contact line. With the current level of losses, Russians should run out of reserves in less than 3 months.

On 11 November, there was a lot of news from the Avdiivka direction. Russian forces launched the third wave of the offensive operation.

This was not unexpected because Russians have relocated 2 new brigades for the next wave of attacks, which is around 8 thousand troops. Ukrainians did not just passively wait for the attackers but rather proactively tried to reduce Russian forces before they even reached the front.

The main Russian tactic right now is using overwhelming numbers to secure territorial gains. This way, even by losing 70% of the assault unit, Russians may still have enough troops to storm a position. Under such circumstances, the main Ukrainian tactic is to start destroying Russian assault units as early as possible.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainian fighters from the twenty-fourth brigade released a video showing how they detected and destroyed 3 armoured fighting vehicles that were meant to be used by the newly arrived Russian brigades.

Another video shows how Ukrainians destroyed a Russian artillery system, which is extremely important because it is the main method of suppressing the fire of Ukrainian defenders.

In order to ensure the freedom of use of drones, the Ukrainian Special Force hunted down Russian electronic warfare systems. The video shows the destruction of 2 such systems.

A Ukrainian fighter from the zero line reported that Ukrainian drones and artillery are very concentrated on the Krasnohorivka area and claimed that Russian equipment rarely gets past Krasnohorivka. Apart from firing regular shells, Ukrainian artillery fires RAAM shells for distant mining, and as can be seen from the footage, Russian tanks, and armoured fighting vehicles continue exploding on mines even by using the previously cleared routes.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Russian analysts reported that such situations are not uncommon and confirmed that distant mining of the previously cleared ground presents a huge threat to the Russian assault units. Ukrainian fighters from the thirty-first brigade released a video showing how they are targeting the immobilized vehicles and the troops that they carried to ensure that they will not see them in future attacks.

Another video shows how Ukrainian assault drone operators are targeting a Russian column that is trying to pass what has already become a graveyard. The last frames of the footage show that the armoured fighting vehicles carried a full assault squad.

A Ukrainian fighter from the zero line said that the destruction of assault units has already become a routine job because Russians do not even try to use new routes or even change them from time to time, so Ukrainian drone operators and artillery have created several death zones where Russian assault units get reduced while getting to the contact line.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Nonetheless, Russian forces managed to accumulate a critical amount of infantry in the tree lines along the railways and eventually launched an attack with the goal of establishing control over Stepove. Soon, Russian sources claimed that Russians managed to enter the settlement and that control over it is currently being contested. However, Russian success was not only short-lived but also very tiny.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

As it turned out, the Russian assault unit got decimated when trying to cross 100 meters to enter the first houses.

The remnants of the unit got scattered and tried to hide in the rubble and basements. Ukrainian fighters from the forty-seventh mechanized brigade released a video showing how one Bradly entered the outskirts to quickly clear it from the remnants of the Russian assault unit. A Ukrainian drone operator noticed that at least 5 Russian soldiers hid in the basement. Ukrainians sent there a couple of kamikaze drones, and the village was completely cleared.

So far, Russian attacks have been repelled, however, this was obviously not the last Russian attempt to enter the village. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun confirmed that Russian forces sharply increased the number and intensity of attacks, which corresponds to the conclusion of many analysts that the third wave of the offensive has started.

This was also immediately reflected in the number of losses, as over the past day, Russians had 1130 troops killed and wounded.

Even though this figure represents total losses from all fronts, as confirmed by Ukrainian commanders, up to 70% of that figure, which is almost 800 killed and wounded, come just from Avdiivka.

According to the latest information, Russians have created 40,000 troops as reserves just for the Avdiivka offensive operation, which has already been ongoing for one month. With the current level of losses, Russians should run out of reserves in less than 3 months.

Russian military bloggers have highlighted the difficulties Russia faces in relying on mass infantry assaults to overcome stalemates on the frontlines in Ukraine, ISW reported.

The Institute for the Study of War said in an article on 11 November, that some Russian milbloggers have emphasized that frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions in Donbas will not lead to broader breakthroughs. “There is no way to train enough Russian personnel for the intensive frontal assaults required for significant advances in Ukraine,” one milblogger said, according to the institute.

Other bloggers claimed Russia is seeing a “renaissance of infantry combat” due to losses of heavy weaponry like tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. However, one critical blogger called this a “negative reflection” of Russia’s equipment losses and poor coordination.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, Russian special forces units have also complained about being used in frontal assaults, which is not their intended role. The institute previously observed that Russia is increasingly relying on such tactics to compensate for inadequate training and heavy equipment losses.

ISW has previously observed that Russian forces are increasingly relying on such infantry-led frontal assaults, likely to compensate for a lack of adequately trained personnel and due to widespread equipment losses.

ISW also reported that the Russian General Staff appears to be relying heavily on frontal assaults as the predominant tactic in Ukraine as an important part of the Russian solution to the problems of “military parity” laid out by Zaluzhnyi’s essay on the issue of “positional warfare.”