Ukraine Foiled Russia's Avdiivka Attacks As It "Ran Out Of Troops"

Ukraine's drone, artillery and fortified infantry at Avdiivka thwarted Russia's attacks because the ferocity of their defense - including the accuracy of their targeting - literally caused the Russians "to run out of troops." JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

The second wave of the Russian Avdiivka attacks ended as they ran out of troops. In the first 2 waves of the offensive, Russians managed to pass 2 tree lines at the cost of 200 pieces of equipment and around 10000 soldiers. This presents a window for Ukrainians to counterattack and improve their defences. The Ukrainians are constantly conducting counterattacks and are not allowing Russians to entrench. if Ukrainians manage to maintain such a high cost for each field crossed, this offensive will fail like Vuhledar.

Russian forces continued conducting their offensive operation with the goal of taking Avdiivka into a pocket. The main focus of their offensive effort became the northern part of the region. After Russian forces entered the Terrikon, they tried to leverage these tactical heights to penetrate defences along the northern edge of the town.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

The main goal was to establish control over the chemical plant; this way, Russians could completely cut off all supply roads to the settlement.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

The Terrikon did not help much in this endeavour. The first reason why Russians struggled to develop the bridgehead lies in the fact that the roads to Terrikon are under total fire control. As you can see, the entrances are located mostly from the Ukrainian side, so getting troops on top of the heap is extremely difficult for Russians.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Secondly, those Russians who manage to get on top suffer from the drone attacks from the fighters of the one-hundred-tenth Mechanized Brigade, for which they became quite notorious. In fact, Russian military analysts claimed that the devastating effects of the Ukrainian drone strikes are amplified by a severe shortage of electronic warfare complexes in this direction.

Moreover, establishing fire control over Ukrainian positions is difficult because the captured Ukrainian machine gun positions and fortifications are obviously located on the other side of the mount. And establishing new positions is challenging because of the shape of the heap, which would expose Russians to fire from the chemical plant.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

That is why Russians attacked along the tree lines without the fire support from above. A Ukrainian soldier filmed a video several weeks ago of the view of the chemical plant from Terrikon. As you can see, the chemical plant is quite tall and stands above the mount. Ukrainian fighters defending the chemical plant recently released a video showing how they are carrying a machine gun to eliminate the newly arrived batch.

So far, Ukrainians have managed to stabilize the situation in this region, as Russians realised that the prospects of taking the chemical plant are currently non-existent and shifted their focus away.

Nonetheless, the loss of Terrikon was not without consequences for the Ukrainian defence. As mentioned previously, Terrikon allowed Ukrainians to exert significant control over the fields near Krasnohorivka, as all tanks and armoured fighting vehicles were in direct view of the ATGM crews.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

The loss of Terrikon, therefore, undermined the Ukrainian’s defence along the tree lines. Russian forces understood it and increased the number of attacks across the fields.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces in the Avdiivka area lose more than half a thousand troops per day. Ukrainian fighters from the forty-seventh Mechanized Brigade operating along the railways reported that the numbers were overwhelming. Another fighter said that even though 80 out of 100 Russian soldiers are killed on the approach, the remaining 20 that do get to the Ukrainian positions present a huge threat.

As a result, over the last 2 weeks, Russian forces managed to establish control over the railway station and the main Ukrainian strong point located at the intersection of the tree lines.

Screenshot from the Reporting From Ukraine video.

Combat footage from the region shows that Ukrainians are constantly conducting counterattacks and are not allowing Russians to entrench along the whole tree line.

The latest updates suggest that the second wave of the Russian attacks ended as they ran out of troops. This presents a small window for Ukrainians to counterattack and improve their defences because Russians will definitely launch the third wave of attacks.

According to Ukrainian Intelligence, Russians have relocated 2 new brigades for the offensive in this region. Ukrainian reconnaissance teams are already working on detecting the relocations of the new groups and conducting strikes on Russian forces’ concentrations in coordination with HIMARS crews.

In the first 2 waves of the offensive, Russians managed to pass 2 tree lines at the cost of 200 pieces of equipment and around 10000 soldiers. Some sources say that Russians allocated 40000 soldiers as reserves for the offensive operation in Avdiivka.

So if Ukrainians manage to maintain such a high cost for each field crossed, then this offensive may fail, just like in Vuhledar.