Russian Officers Offer Bleak Assessment Of Moscow's Ukraine Prospects

Russian officers are admitting publicly that their prospects in Ukraine are bleak. 

They see no diminution of Ukraine's capabilities, despite negative reports in the western press - and they reveal that Russian troops are unable to break Ukrainian defenses, while Ukraine's advances remain opportunistically successful. JL  

Isabel van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Russian military officers have offered a bleak overview of Moscow's prospects in the war in Ukraine, bemoaning a lack of strategy."We have not formulated medium-term [war] goals. We do not understand what plans our military command has."  They don't see Moscow advancing past Ukrainian defenses any time soon and pushed back against claims Kyiv is running out of resources. "I don't see the prerequisites for any collapse of [Ukraine], I have not heard of any shortage on any sector of the front." Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks have Russia struggling to resupply its own weapons and equipment. And Ukraine is successfully repelling Russia's offensive on Avdiivka. "They are completely holding back our offensive on Avdiivka."

Russian military officers have offered a bleak overview of Moscow's prospects in the ongoing war in Ukraine, bemoaning a lack of strategy from leadership.

The officers spoke with Russian media outlet RTVI after Apti Alaudinov, Russia's special forces commander, said that Moscow would achieve "very serious results" in Ukraine by the spring of 2024. He added that there has already been a turning point in the conflict for Russia; that Ukraine is running out of resources; and that the winter weather has always been an ally for Russian troops. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry for comment via email.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv cannot afford any stalemate in the 21-month-old war. "If we want to end the war, we must end it. End with respect so that the whole world knows that whoever came, captured, and killed, is responsible," he told reporters last week.

Two weeks earlier, General Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, told British weekly newspaper The Economist that the war had "reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate."

 

Military officer Roman Saponkov told the news outlet in an interview published on Thursday that he doesn't see Moscow being able to advance past Ukrainian defenses any time soon. He also pushed back against Alaudinov's claims that Kyiv is running out of resources.

 

"I don't yet see the prerequisites for any major offensive or collapse of [Ukraine's] front," said Saponkov, adding that Ukraine is so far successfully repelling Russia's offensive on the Donetsk town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.

"They are completely holding back our offensive on Avdiivka," Saponkov said, referring to the region that has been described as the gateway to the city of Donetsk, and where clashes have been intensifying since October.

 

"In summer, they generally had a complete unlimited supply of shells. And now, in principle, I have not heard of any shortage on any sector of the front," Saponkov said of Ukraine's artillery stockpile. He added that Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks have meant that Russia is struggling to resupply its own weapons and equipment.

Russian military officer Alexey Zhivov criticized a lack of strategy from the top leadership in the war, saying commanders are not communicating basic information, such as where in Ukraine troops are expected to focus in the war in the near future.

"We have not even formulated any medium-term [war] goals," said Zhivov. "Based on the fact that we do not understand what plans our military command has, we cannot say where we will break through in the spring."

 

Zhivov added that Russia has been unable to advance in Ukraine as it did in the early stages of the war. The Russians are unlikely to do so unless there is a clear strategy communicated by the military leadership, and unless they have the manpower to carry out such offensives.

In the early days of the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to achieve his initial goal. This was to take over all of Ukraine quickly, setting up the fall of his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky's administration, and installing a puppet administration loyal to Moscow.

 

Putin's forces launched a brutal assault on the southeastern strategic port city of Mariupol. This is on the Azov Sea that forms part of a land corridor from the eastern Donbas region. The Russians seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in March 2022.

 

"Have you noticed that we haven't carried out such large-scale offensive movements as in the first weeks of the [war] for a long time? When entire armies covered regions with huge pincers, bypassed cities, and so on," Zhivov asked.

"[Back] then we worked according to a certain scenario, which was worked out by the [Russian] General Staff and approved, where, plus or minus, everyone knew their place and time, where and when to go," the military officer added.