New Ukrainian Advances South of Bakhmut Weaken Russians At Avdiivka

Using the adaptability that has been their hallmark, Ukrainian forces identified a weakness in Russian deployments at Horlivka, 20 km south of Bakhmut and have advanced, gaining significant ground in an area held by Russia since 2014.

Horlivka is only 30km north of Avdiivka, so this not only improves Ukraine's general position in Donetsk but pressures Russia's repeated failed attempts to attack Avdiivka. JL  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The most interesting action of the past two days may be happening just west of Horlivka, 20 kilometers south of Bakhmut. This is along the road to a major city occupied by Russia; in an area Russia has held since 2014. Ukrainian forces have crossed Russia’s defensive lines in the area and are still advancing. Avdiivka is less than 30 kilometers south of Horlivka. For the last several days, Russia was again gathering forces for a major strike. During this relative lull in Russian attacks, Ukraine has made some counterattacks near the town of Stepove, pushing Russian forces back near the rail lineAn unseasonable cold front passed across southern and eastern Ukraine this week, bringing within it wet snow, cold rain, freezing temperatures, and the definitive return of everyone’s least favorite combatant, General Mud. From the Dnipro River on the west, through the trenches of Zaporizhzhia, right into the struggle for Avdiivka, it seems as if every message from soldiers on both sides is the same: It’s cold, wet, and miserable.

More clement weather is expected to return to southern Ukraine in the next few days, but the beginning of bezdorizhzhia (“mud season”) would seem to spell the end for any large movements until the ground freezes up in midwinter. Then again, it’s not as if there was much of anything that could be considered a large movement underway. The gains and losses of both sides over the last few months have largely been measured in meters, as Ukraine’s summer offensive never found a point where they could make a serious breakthrough.

As the conflict tumbles toward winter, Ukraine and Russia are engaged at numerous points along the eastern front from Bakhmut down to Avdiivka, and there are hints that long-held positions may be shifting. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to pick up ground in the west as more troops are ferried across the Dnipro, but it remains unclear whether this can be turned into a serious front without some armor. And a bridge.

For weeks, it’s been clear that there had been no move to either repair one of the existing bridges across the Dnipro or create a pontoon bridge to bring Ukrainian forces across at a critical point. It was clear because regularly updated satellite imagery showed absolutely nothing in the way of new construction anywhere from the river’s mouth to well past the bend at Korsunka. That’s less clear this week because there are no new images to study. Instead, everything in the area has been socked in by clouds, leaving the last clear images ten days old. Which might be the best thing for Ukraine.

At the moment, neither Deep State nor Andrew Perpetua is showing any big changes on their map, but there is a lot of chatter on Telegram indicating that additional Ukrainian forces have been moved into position, with Ukrainian patrols moving freely in the area around Krynky.

In the words of this Russian soldier: “Everything is happening in the most f**ked up way. Nothing is clear and it’s all bad.”

I have to say, I love his attitude. And I certainly hope his claims that Ukraine is better equipped and commanded are true.

The most interesting action of the past two days isn’t in Kherson; it may be happening just west of the city of Horlivka, just east of the Ukrainian stronghold at Toretsk, about 20 kilometers south of Bakhmut.

Horlivka area

That area of brighter blue represents a Ukrainian advance. That area may look small (about 1 square kilometer), but its location is critical. This is not just along the road to a major city occupied by Russia; it’s in an area Russia has held since 2014. There are claims that Ukrainian forces have crossed Russia’s defensive lines in the area and are still advancing.

Spoil hills in Horlivka area

A slightly closer look at the disputed area on satellite shows something that’s become familiar from the fighting down at Avdiivka—hills created from mine waste. These heaps of spoil or overburden are steep and rutted, but they also show more vegetation than those at Avdiivka. Either they are older, or there has been some slight attempt at reclamation in this area.

That vegetation could make these hills more stable and better suited for defensive positions than the big, bare waste heap at Avdiivka. They also happen to be particularly steep on the western approach, and while that has made them more difficult for Ukrainian forces to climb, it also means they provide good shelter against Russian artillery arcing in from the east. And that artillery is arcing in. Check out the first map above. Every one of those little red and white bullseyes represents a known Russian artillery strike.

It’s uncertain just how many troops either Russia or Ukraine has in the Horlivka area. There are some reports from Ukraine indicating that their forces are prepared to advance down the highway right into the city. However, these statements are more intended for a Russian audience and likely reflect the real intention of this attack: drawing heat away from Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is less than 30 kilometers south of the attack point at Horlivka. For the last several days, there has been word that Russia was again gathering forces around the area, preparing for a major strike. During this relative lull in Russian attacks, Ukraine has made some counterattacks near the town of Stepove, pushing Russian forces back near the rail line, but they haven’t been able to roll back all of Russia’s previous advances.

Here’s another video of a Russian soldier in the area north of Avdiivka. WARNING: If you click through on this one, know that this guy is not kidding about what he says. “Everything is covered in corpses. Everything. The majority are ours … We’re getting properly f**ked.”

The first two such strikes at Avdiivka were repelled with horrible losses on the Russian side. However, over the past two weeks, Russia has managed to push forward on three sides of Avdiivka, and there are expectations that this time they might carry the location.

If not, and the loss of thousands of troops buys them only a few hundred meters, Russia can always back off and do it again. Russia, it seems, is not running out of Russians and is not concerned about wasting the ones it has. As the man said, everything is already covered in corpses.

The Ukrainian advance west of Horlivka may be more concerned about making some of the Russian forces gathering around Avdiivka think twice about facing south and leaving the center of the line exposed. Or maybe Ukraine is seriously going to drive into a major city held by Russia for just under a decade.

Vladimir Putin has been looking for a signal that the situation isn’t deadlocked in Ukraine. Driving into Horlivka would certainly deliver that message loud and clear.

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This is more fronts than I knew existed, but the good news is that Russia failed on all of them.