The Strategic Implications of Russia's Avdiivka Offensive Defeat

Moscow believed that having largely stopped the Ukrainian momentum in the south, it could release troops held in reserve for an offensive in the east. But they miscalculated. 

Those troops from the Russian operational reserve and much of their equipment have now been largely annihilated, weakening Russian forces in the both the east and the south. JL

Ian Lovett reports in the Wall Street Journal:

In deploying so many resources around Avdiivka, Moscow  calculated that its troops withstood the Ukrainian threat in the south and that additional manpower—which had been held in reserve—can be deployed in an offensive. (But) the Russian assault on Avdiivka was every bit as disastrous as the one in February. The Russians lost 2,000 troops—with 800 killed—last Tuesday, the first day of the assault, while Ukrainian drones and artillery took out dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles. Russian assaults around Avdiivka have now decreased.

With Ukraine’s monthslong southern counteroffensive making slow progress, Russia last week launched a large-scale assault of its own with a narrower aim: the small eastern city of Avdiivka.

By most accounts, it didn’t go well.

Ukraine’s military said it destroyed dozens of Russian tanks and other armored vehicles and killed hundreds of Russian troops while losing little territory. Video released by Ukrainian officials showed the damage, with artillery and bomblets dropped from drones crashing into one Russian vehicle after another, leaving them smoking on the road.

The assault may mark an inflection point in the conflict. Moscow is trying to retake the offensive, confident that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity for a breakthrough in the south, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a war analysis firm with a focus on Ukraine.

But in the 20th month of the war, it isn’t clear that either side is able to significantly move the front line, which hasn’t shifted much in nearly a year.

“Ukraine had the initiative during the summer,” Muzyka said. “Now, the initiative is slowly shifting. It will most likely be the Russians on the offensive.”

The heavy Russian losses stand as a testament to how difficult both sides have found it to make progress this year against enemies who are heavily dug in behind dense minefields covered by artillery.

Since the start of the summer, Kyiv has thrown thousands of troops toward the Russian lines in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, hoping to cut through to the Sea of Azov and sever supply lines to Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Initially, Ukrainian troops pushed forward in armored columns of their own, using tanks and other Western armored vehicles, which newly formed brigades trained on during the spring.

After losing some of those vehicles in June, however, Ukrainian forces reset, and instead began advancing on foot in smaller groups. Using this strategy, the Ukrainians managed to pierce the main line of Russian defenses in August, but have struggled since then to expand that gap into a major breach that would allow them to advance further south.

In deploying so many resources around Avdiivka, Moscow appears to have calculated that its troops have withstood the Ukrainian threat in the south and that additional manpower—which had previously been held in reserve—can be deployed in an offensive.

The small industrial city of Avdiivka has been a top Russian target for nearly a decade, since Moscow covertly sent its military to install separatist rulers in Ukraine’s east. Located just a few miles outside the Russian-occupied regional capital of Donetsk, Kyiv’s hold on Avdiivka allows Ukrainian forces to threaten logistics and transportation hubs in the region.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February last year, Russian forces had closed in on Avdiivka on three sides and flattened much of it with artillery and airstrikes. Yet, they had been unable to take—or encircle—the city itself, where Ukraine has built up fortifications since the initial conflict.

Then last week, several Russian battalions launched an assault on Avdiivka from several directions in columns of armored vehicles supported by air power and artillery, according to Ukrainian military officials.

They have seized several Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Avdiivka, but are still far from what appears to be their aim of cutting the city off. Their progress has slowed after the initial push, and they have lost at least three dozen armored vehicles, according to open-source intelligence analysts, who comb through battlefield videos and satellite images to gauge and verify changes at the front.

The advance on Avdiivka marked the first time the Russians have employed large armored columns since February when Ukraine wiped out a Russian column advancing into the village of Vuhledar.

Col. Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskiy, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said the Russian assault on Avdiivka was every bit as disastrous as the one in February. The Russians lost 2,000 troops—with 800 killed—last Tuesday, the first day of the assault, he said, while Ukrainian drones and artillery took out dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles. Russian assaults around Avdiivka have also decreased since early last week, he said, but added that the Russians maintained air superiority in the area.

“The enemy is using regular army units, most likely the units that were pulled up as reserves,” Dmytrashkivskiy said.

The Russian Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to a request for comment about the assault on Avdiivka.

Last week, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was finished and Russia was now on the offensive. But when asked about Avdiivka on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his forces were conducting “active defense” along the whole front line.

“Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka,” the Institute of the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote on Sunday. “Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel.”