The Reason Russia's Failed Assault At Avdiivka Is So Damaging To Moscow

Russia's offensive around Avdiivka, in Ukraine's east, is increasingly being termed a failure, even by Russian sources. The reason it is so damaging to the Russian military is that it weakens their ability to do what they do best - defend their occupied territory from prepared positions. 

The loss of troops, armor and artillery makes it more easier for Ukrainian troops to attack - and more difficult for the Russians to support their front line units. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

More info keeps emerging from Avdiivka, Russia’s biggest disaster of the year. "After the first penetrations, Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the breakthrough, including artillery, and Russian penetrations during the first hours were stopped." (Based on) what has been visually confirmed, losing over 50 pieces of armor around Avdiivka is devastating to Russia. "Now the advance of Russian troops has dropped to Bakhmut pace." Ukraine reinforced the town in less than half a day and is (already) launching counterattacks. 
More info keeps emerging from Avdiivka, easily Russia’s biggest disaster of the year.

Ukriane’s claims over the last week, since the start of Russia’s Avdiivka assault, have been downright gaudy: 

October 15: 8 tanks, 25 armored combat vehicles, 33 artillery

October 14: 9 tanks, 24 ACV, 26 artillery

October 13: 26 tanks, 49 ACV, 44 artillery 

October 12: 42 tanks, 44 ACV, 32 artillery

October 11: 34 tanks, 91 ACV, 18 artillery 

Open source intelligence analysts have visually confirmed far fewer of these, and of course, not all of these kills are from Avdiivka alone. Combat is raging across the entire front line. Yet on a typical day, Ukraine reports 5-10 armored vehicles kills of all types. This hasn’t been an armor-centric war in a long time. The huge claims coincide with Russia’s Avdiika assault. 

But even what has been visually confirmed, over 50 pieces of armor around Avdiivka, is simply devastating to Russia. Anything above that is gravy. 

A Russian war blogger breaks it down from their side:

How did the Russian command distinguish itself there? In order:

1. The enemy was outplayed with the concentration of troops, the attack was so sudden that on the first day all observers noted very weak artillery fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Ukrainians themselves admit to losing ground early in the attack, clearly it wasn’t expected. 

2.  Thorough reconnaissance - for example, a number of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the preparation of the offensive, strikes were carried out on the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were successful, and this did not lead to the discovery of the plans of the Russian command.

it’s not easy to conceal an attack involving hundreds of vehicles and their logistical train, especially with Ukraine’s access to both satellite intelligence, and all the drones. So yes, this was objectively a major Russian accomplishment and Ukrainian failure.

The stuff about killing a bunch of Ukrainian commanders … it’s the sort of bullshit fluff they insert into every report to soften the blow of their criticisms. If Russia had taken out a major Ukrainian command post, we’d be seeing the video on 24-7 loop. And it’s unnecessary. Catching Ukraine by surprise was impressive enough. 

3. To speed up the breakthrough of Russian units through the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reserves of high-precision weapons, including LMURs [helicopter-launched missiles], were created, and the interaction of ground units with helicopters was worked out. Also, to accelerate the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense lines, Russian troops are massively using incendiary ammunition, with all the ensuing consequences for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

That is, we are dealing with a pre-prepared attack, carefully planned, for which reserves of material and technical equipment were created, including high-precision weapons, a set of reconnaissance activities were carried out, offensive groups of ground forces were covertly prepared for advance, and a serious detachment of strike aviation forces was allocated.

And what? After the first penetrations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the place of the breakthrough, including artillery, and our penetrations during the first hours were stopped. Now the advance of Russian troops has dropped to Bakhmut pace—tens of meters per day at best, the enemy is launching counterattacks.

I’ve noted repeatedly the last few days, and over the course of the entire war, that Ukraine enjoys a massive advantage with its internal lines of communication. 

The distance from Orikhiv, north of the big Ukrainian advance around Robotyne, to Prokovsk, 60 kilometers (37 miles) west of Avdiivka, is just 120 kilometers (75 miles). Units can cover that distance in 2-3 hours. Add another 2-3 hours to fuel up, replenish supplies, and deploy to Adviika, and Ukraine has just reinforced the town in less than half a day. 

The result? As this war blogger’s report notes, “our penetrations during the first hours were stopped.”