Russia's Avdiivka Offensive Has Reportedly Failed

Military observers and analysts are saying Russia's attempted offensive around Avdiivka has failed due to unsustainable losses of men and equipment.

That Russia attempted its largest counterattack of the year at a relatively insignificant town suggests that was all they are capable of at this juncture and that it will fall back on defensive operations which it is better suited to conduct. JL 

Ukraine Pravda reports:

Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka failed on 13 October. Ongoing offensive operations faced setbacks around the city. The Russian military is limiting the discussion of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka. They are trying to adapt to previous information shocks and control narratives that emerge around the operations. Russian soldiers stated that worn-out barrels reduce the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have continued counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Tokmak.

Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast failed on 13 October.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts said that the Kremlin is trying to present its offensive operations around Avdiivka and other local actions as seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocation footage released on 12 and 13 October showed that troops had advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5 kilometres north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian sources have also published contradictory reports about the Russians having taken control of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, although the ISW has found no evidence that Russian forces were in control of the plant at the time of publication.

The Ukrainian military reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing to repel Russian attacks around Avdiivka.

A Russian military blogger noted that Ukrainian forces are using minefields to slow down Russian advances on the Avdiivka front.

A Russian volunteer soldier stated that worn-out barrels reduce the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka. The ISW has previously observed complaints about Russian artillery from Russian sources.

The Russian volunteer soldier said that Russian forces could "squeeze the [Ukrainian] perimeter" by seizing less fortified Ukrainian territory near Avdiivka, but expressed concern that Russian generals would misinterpret these limited advances and attempt to accelerate their offensive on Avdiivka. He also noted that such a misinterpretation could lead to Russian troops "pounding on concrete" fortifications until they run out of assets.

Moreover, military analysts believe that the Russian military command is limiting the discussion of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the information space. They are likely trying to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives that emerge in the Russian information space around the operations.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 October:

• Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on 13 October reportedly faced setbacks around the city.

• The Russian military command appears to be restricting discussion of the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the Russian information space.

• The Kremlin is likely attempting to frame Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other localised efforts as Russian forces seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 13 October.