As Ukraine's Avdiivka Slaughter Grows, They Open 2nd Cross Dnipro Bridgehead

Ukrainian forces are beating the Russians on four fronts - Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Tokmak and now a second cross-Dnipro bridgehead south of Kherson. 

The implication is that Ukraine is picking its battles strategically to adaptively offset Russian operations, limiting their effectiveness and whittling down their capabilities on all fronts. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian losses reached 1400 soldiers, 175 tanks and armored vehicles in one day, and 65% of these losses came from two 5 km segments of the front near Avdiivka. The losses are 50% higher than during the first day of the offensive. Russian forces (did not) support ground operations with airstrikes because over the last 11 days Russians incurred 5 confirmed fighter jets losses and 2 more unconfirmed. After penetrating Russian defenses across the Dnipro, Ukraine created a second bridgehead undermining their defensive operation near Tokmak and offensive near Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have been able to adequately supply and reinforce the groups conducting these operations.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that total Russian losses reached almost 1400 soldiers and 175 tanks and armored fighting vehicles in one day, and 65% of these losses came from two 5 km segments of the front near Avdiivka. The losses are almost 50% higher than during the first day of the offensive, which may come as a surprise because yesterday’s attack was not even as intense.

However, looking deeper into the question, such losses become unsurprising. The reason why the second wave of the Russian offensive was even more self-destructive is twofold.

First of all, there was no element of surprise. And even though Ukrainian Intelligence did know in advance about the coming Russian attack on Avdiivka, this is not the same as soldiers on the ground knowing what exactly they are going to see and how exactly to deal with it. So, Ukrainian soldiers were more prepared and understood what to do to rebuff the Russian attack more efficiently.

Secondly, this time, Russian forces failed to support their ground operations with airstrikes to the same extent because over the last 11 days Russians incurred 5 confirmed fighter jets losses and 2 more unconfirmed, meaning not only that Russians have fewer jets but also that Ukrainians adjusted and are ready to intercept them en masse. 

The main goal of yesterday’s attack once again became taking Terikon, which is a 25-meter-tall artificial mountain. The main idea is that once Russian forces establish control over the heights, they will be able to control the whole region and advance in all directions. And theoretically, this makes sense because Terrikon is extremely wide and has a lot of firing positions. However, practically, this would imply storming a 25-meter-tall wall under the constant fire of Ukrainians. 

In the aftermath of the storming operation, some Russian sources reported that they achieved success and established control over the trees in front of Terrikon. Simultaneously, Russian forces launched an assault across the fields in the direction of Stepove. Geolocated footage reveals that Russians increased the sizes of their assault units by more than 50%, hoping that enough of them would survive during the crossing to take the Ukrainian positions. The video shows at least 14 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, which carry up to 100 soldiers. The infantry was dropped around 150 meters from Ukrainian trenches because Russians wanted to get their vehicles back. After that, some of the vehicles managed to escape, while the infantry got stuck in the field.

The infantry was lying on the ground because of non-stop machine gun fire, and it took just several artillery shots at the crowd to eliminate the whole assault unit. And this was just one assault.

Ukrainian reconnaissance teams reported that they were sending one attack after another. Ukrainians were using all types of weapons to prevent Russian tanks from getting close. Sometimes, Russian assault units were destroyed just several meters in front of the trenches. 

As one Ukrainian soldier said, Russians received such a powerful rebuff yesterday that they conducted almost no assaults today. A Russian soldier also commented about the situation and said that it’s high time the Russian Command reconsidered its approach of sending one battalion after another to hell, thinking that maybe this time they manage to entrench.

The situation in Avdiivka is so bad for Russians that the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin visited the main military Headquarters in Rostov-on-Don to personally talk with the Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The specifics of the discussion were not disclosed, however, some sources speculated that Russians expected to take Avdiivka by today. Putin also sent his regards to the commanders, so the fate and career of these commanders responsible for the onslaught may be at risk.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also had a special meeting with high commanders, and the main topic of the discussion was also Avdiivka. The Chief-in-Command Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who recently visited the front line, reported on the ongoing successful defensive operation in Avdiivka. So far, everything is under control.

After penetrating Russian defenses across Dnipro in Poima and Pishchanivka, Ukrainians decided to expand the scale of their operation by creating a second bridgehead – and this operation turned out to be even more successful than the previous one.

Ukraine’s first landing operation across Dnipro in the south and the second in the north.

But first of all, before conducting this second landing operation on Krynky, a lot of fights took place around the first Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the river. After losing two villages, Russian forces received an order to eliminate the bridgehead at all costs and started attacking Poima and Pishchanivka. Ukrainian fighters were looking for the moving forces and destroying them on the approach. One of the videos shows the destruction of a truck fully loaded with ammunition for the Russian assault units. Another video shows how Ukrainian drone operators hunted down a car that was pulling a mortar system closer to Poima.

Nonetheless, the clashes eventually took place, and Russian sources reported that Russians returned control over the villages. However, today, some Russian sources reported that the fighting in Pishchanivka is still ongoing. So far, the situation around these two villages is not fully clear, however, what is certain is that Ukrainians had enough time to entrench themselves in the residential areas of more islands, just like they did near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian sources reported that despite continuous airstrikes, Ukrainians maintain a permanent presence. This is not surprising because Ukrainians have secured a continuous 20 km line of residential areas on the islands along the Dnipro River, which allows them to conduct rotation, evacuation, and supply forces with ammunition significantly easier.

The Dnipro islands are controlled by Ukrainian troops

While Russian forces were fighting near Pishchanivka, Ukrainians attacked Krynky, 15 km to the north-east. Ukrainian fighters recently released footage purported to show how two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups crossed the Dnipro River and started slowly moving toward the settlement. Later, Russian sources reported that Ukrainians overwhelmed the Russian troops in the area, gained a foothold in the village, and are fighting to take full control of Krynky.

It seems like the Ukrainian commanders also took lessons from the first landing operation several days ago because the assault units used a slightly different tactic. Instead of focusing on taking control of the settlement and waiting there to meet the Russian counterattack, Ukrainians moved further out of the village and, according to Russian sources, advanced by almost two kilometers south and entrenched in the tree lines. This was a very clever move because it gave more room for maneuvering and, more importantly, created a buffer zone necessary to safely conduct rotation, evacuation, and transfer new forces and light equipment across the Dnipro River to support positions on the east bank.

Ukrainian troops expanded their second bridgehead beyond the village, while the situation in the frist bridgehead is unclear.

When Russian forces conducted a counterattack, they struggled to advance deeper into the settlement because of the Ukrainian positions in the tree lines. It seems like, at some point, the counterattack became too costly, and Russians started mostly relying on aviation. Despite Russian resistance, Ukrainians managed to hold the bridgehead and continue their operations.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed the situation and concluded that Ukrainian forces have been able to adequately supply and reinforce the groups conducting these operations. Moreover, Russian sources reported that their ability to use aviation effectively decreased due to unfavorable weather conditions. Given the lack of manpower and the means to compensate for the lack of manpower in this region, Ukrainians may have plenty of opportunities for advancement.

Even though many Russian sources have been raising the alarm about the imminent massive landing operation and a sudden counteroffensive in the Kherson region, some military analysts claimed that a milder objective of Ukrainian forces here may be to force Russians to move here as many troops as possible, thereby undermining their defensive operation near Tokmak or offensive operation near Avdiivka. However, if Russians refuse to increase the number of forces to protect the river’s eastern bank, then a massive landing operation may become a possibility.