With Its Recent Attacks, Ukraine Has Effectively Opened "A Crimean Front"

This is a significant strategic development with military and economic implications. 

Ukraine is making it more difficult for Russia to resupply its troops from Crimea and, simultaneously, is making life in Crimea, for the Russians and their sympathizers, less tenable. This ultimately threatens the very premise of Russia's war against Ukraine and proxy war against NATO. JL

Peter Dickinson reports in The Atlantic Council:

In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has carried out a number of strategically significant attacks across the Crimean peninsula. These operations enable Ukraine to threaten the supply lines of the Russian army in southern Ukraine, while also making it increasingly difficult for the Russian navy to maintain a presence in the northwestern Black Sea. The steady depletion of Russia’s air defenses on the Crimean peninsula may be an indication of Ukraine’s future intentions. There can be little doubt that Ukraine is aiming to make Crimea untenable for the Russian military.

More than three months since the start of Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have only managed to liberate a tiny portion of the territory currently under Russian occupation. However, the success or failure of the campaign cannot be measured in square kilometers alone. Beyond the front lines, the Ukrainian military is steadily reducing Russia’s ability to wage war and is methodically creating the conditions for future advances. This progress is nowhere more evident than in Crimea.

In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has carried out a number of strategically significant attacks across the Crimean peninsula, which has been under Russian occupation since early 2014 and has served as a key logistics hub for current invasion. These operations are enabling Ukraine to threaten the supply lines of the Russian army in southern Ukraine, while also making it increasingly difficult for the Russian navy to maintain a presence in the northwestern Black Sea.

Employing a combination of Ukrainian-produced drones, Western-supplied cruise missiles, and commando raids, Ukraine has struck a series of high value targets in Crimea including Russian air defense systems, communications outposts, transport hubs, airfields, and ammunition stores. A number of strikes have reportedly targeted senior Russian officers. The growing frequency of these Ukrainian offensive operations in Crimea has made a mockery of earlier Russian attempts to claim that any attacks on the occupied peninsula represented a “red line” for the Kremlin.

 

Some of Ukraine’s recent attacks on the Crimean front have been spectacular enough to garner international headlines. In mid-September, Ukraine struck a warship and submarine while they underwent repair works in the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s home port of Sevastopol. According to an intelligence update by Britain’s Ministry of Defense, the Minsk landing ship was “almost certainly functionally destroyed” in the attack, while the Kilo class Rostov-on-Don submarine “likely suffered catastrophic damage.” Furthermore, the task of removing wreckage from the dry docks in Sevastopol will likely take months, creating major challenges for fleet maintenance.

Ukraine went even further on September 22, launching an audacious daylight attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the heart of Sevastopol. This resulted in a number of direct hits that caused serious damage to the symbolically important building. Ukraine’s success was a major embarrassment for Putin, exposing the ineffectiveness of Russia’s air defenses and underlining the vulnerability of the Black Sea Fleet. In a sure sign of Moscow’s extreme displeasure, the Kremlin-controlled Russian state media initially ignored the humiliating attack entirely.

The steady depletion of Russia’s air defenses on the Crimean peninsula in recent months may be an indication of Ukraine’s future intentions. With the skies over occupied Crimea increasingly undefended, Ukraine will likely seek to expand attacks on Crimean transport and munitions hubs that are critically important for the Russian war effort in southern Ukraine. This could deprive Russian forces of resupply at a critical moment in the fighting along the front lines in Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

While the situation for Russia’s occupation forces in Crimea is not yet critical, the outlook is far from promising. Reports following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent White House meeting with US President Joe Biden indicate that the United States is now preparing to supply Ukraine with ATACMS cruise missiles for the first time, though the exact range is yet to be announced. The delivery of ATACMS missiles would enable the Ukrainian military to strike targets throughout Crimea. Ukraine is also developing powerful new underwater drones that will significantly increase the threat to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. At this point, there can be little doubt that Ukraine is ultimately aiming to make Crimea untenable for the Russian military.