Ukrainian Forces Are Pushing Closer To Tokmak As Russian Rush Troops To Front

As the Ukrainians advance on at least two axes - Verbove and Novoprokopivka - the Russians are rushing whatever forces they have left to try to stem the assault. 

Tokmak is only 12 miles from the current Ukrainian advance. JL 

David Brennan reports in Newsweek, image Roman Pilipey, AFP via Getty:

Recent Ukrainian gains around the Zaporizhzhia settlement of Verbove have raised hopes that the long-awaited breakthrough may soon materialize. Ukrainian infantry and armored units are pushing into the bulge developing in Russian defensive lines in Verbove, 11 miles southeast of Orikhiv, where recent reports indicate significant Russian losses and the possibility of a sustained Ukrainian breakthrough. Russian reinforcements are being rushed to the Tokmak area as Ukrainian forces gain ground. The deployment suggests "the Russian command has not manned the multi-echeloned defense in southern Ukraine in depth." Most Russian forces in the area appear to be deployed "to frontline areas."

Ukraine's counterattacking forces are still edging forwards on the southern Zaporizhzhia front, hoping to exploit gaps wrought in Russian defensive lines to achieve a significant breakthrough towards the strategic target of Tokmak—prompting Moscow to deploy reinforcements.

Recent Ukrainian gains around the Zaporizhzhia settlement of Verbove have raised hopes that the long-awaited breakthrough may soon materialize, after more than three months of a slow and costly push towards Russia's so-called "Surovikin Line" of fortifications stretching across occupied southern Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Tuesday that the "tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations" in the area. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

The think tank cited reports among Russian Telegram milbloggers suggesting that Kyiv's troops had reached the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka, around 8 miles south of Orikhiv, the town from which Ukraine's southern drive began in June.

This map published by the Institute for the Study of War on September 26, 2023 shows Ukrainian gains on the southern Zaporizhzhia front. Kyiv's forces are pushing south of Orikhiv in the hope of breaking through to the strategic targets of Tokmak and Melitopol.INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI'S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Meanwhile, Ukrainian infantry and armored units are still thought to be pushing into the bulge developing in Russian defensive lines in Verbove, 11 miles southeast of Orikhiv, where recent battlefield reports indicate significant Russian losses and the possibility of a sustained Ukrainian breakthrough.

 

The regional strategic prize is the town of Tokmak, around 12 miles from the current front line and serving as a key railway, command, and logistics hub for defending Russian forces. The town is ringed with newly built defensive networks in preparation for a possible Ukrainian breakthrough to the north.

The ISW suggested that Russian reinforcements are being rushed to the Tokmak area as Ukrainian forces gain ground. Among the units thought to be in the area are elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment.

The ISW said the deployment of such groups as far back as Tokmak itself suggests that "the Russian command has not manned the multi-echeloned defense in southern Ukraine in depth." Most Russian forces in the area, the bulletin said, appear to be deployed "to immediate frontline areas."

"The deployment of the 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments as far back as Tokmak suggests that elements of the same Russian formations and units defending at forward positions are holding positions, likely in smaller numbers, in subsequent defensive layers," ISW wrote

 

"It is possible that unobserved elements of other Russian units and formations hold positions at rear defensive positions, although the current Russian manpower commitment to holding positions on the frontline indicates that this is unlikely."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly tasked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with defeating Ukraine's counteroffensive by early October. Russian soldiers continue small, localized counterattacks in response to Ukrainian gains, and have put up a resolute defense despite systemic problems within the army structure and severe losses

 

The ISW has repeatedly noted the apparent lack of Russian reserves in southern Ukraine, and the lack of rotation of frontline units despite the intense nature of the fighting and the heavy losses among those groups involved.

Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's Tavriia operational-strategic group fighting in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, on Wednesday promised imminent "good news," adding: "Our soldiers are steadily advancing and defeating the Russians."

On Saturday, CNN published an interview with Tarnavskyi in which the commander predicted a significant breakthrough "after [the liberation of] Tokmak."

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