A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 17, 2023

Ukraine's Advances In Bakhmut Prevent Russian Reinforcement In South

The Ukrainian strategy of attacking at various sectors of the front appears to be working to prevent Russia from redeploying units from one area to another, both because they are afraid the Ukrainians will attack wherever they reduce troop strength.

But this is also working because the Russians do not have enough troops or logistical capabilities to make it work effectively, especially as the Ukrainians attack their road and rail transport with longer range munitions. JL

Olena Goncharova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts have effectively immobilized elite Russian units within the Bakhmut area, preventing their large-scale relocation to the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast defensive front. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations compel the Russian command to prioritize specific front sectors and conduct lateral redeployments. These operations have engaged elite Russian units, including the 98th Air Assault Division, the 83rd Air Assault Brigade, the 11th Air Assault Brigade, the 31st Air Assault Brigade, the 106th Air Assault Division, and the 364th Special Force Brigade. These formations have not yet bolstered the defense in Zaporizhzhia, due to Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut.

Russian volunteer battalions "Storm Ossetia" and "Alania" which are operating in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, shared a photo on Sept. 16, allegedly depicting a small unit from the Russian 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade stationed in Nesteryanka, some 57 kilometers southeast from Zaporizhzhia and near the current Ukrainian breach.

Elements of the 83rd Brigade had previously been deployed to counter Ukrainian offensives around Klishchiivka in late June and were observed in combat in late August, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update. Some elements of the 83rd Brigade were reportedly still active in the Bakhmut area as of Sept. 11, suggesting Russia's concern regarding Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations would compel the Russian command to prioritize specific front sectors and conduct lateral redeployments. These operations have engaged elite Russian units, including the 98th Air Assault Division, the 83rd Air Assault Brigade, the 11th Air Assault Brigade, the 31st Air Assault Brigade, the 106th Air Assault Division, and the 364th Special Force Brigade.

These formations, however, have not yet been redirected to bolster the defense in Zaporizhzhia, partly due to ongoing Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut.

Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts have effectively immobilized these elite Russian units within the Bakhmut area, preventing their large-scale relocation to the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast defensive front

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