Ukraine Expects Its Pilots To Be Flying F-16s In Combat This Winter

As Ukrainian pilots begin training to fly F-16s in a number of NATO countries, including the US, initial assessments now suggest they could be ready to use the jets in combat far sooner than was originally predicted. 

While the F-16s will not be a silver bullet, especially given Russia's sophisticated air defense capabilities, the F-16s could provide Ukraine with additional support for its degradation of Russian defenses. JL 

Gordon Lubold and Nancy Youssef report in the Wall Street Journal:

Kyiv’s military leaders say they could have Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s in combat as early as this winter, a more optimistic timeline than previous estimates, and one that could give Ukrainian forces a significant new capability. Based on initial assessments, Ukrainian officials now believe Ukrainian fighter pilots could be ready to go as early as February. The U.S. could train experienced, English-proficient Ukrainian pilots in five months. “They need to fly a plane, they don’t need to be able to read Shakespeare.”

Kyiv’s military leaders say they could have Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s in combat as early as this winter, a more optimistic timeline than previous estimates, and one that could give Ukrainian forces a significant new capability for next year’s fight. 

Based on initial assessments, Ukrainian officials now believe that with American training expected to begin this month or next, a handful of Ukrainian fighter pilots could be ready to go as early as February, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said. The U.S. could train experienced, English-proficient Ukrainian pilots in as little as five months, a group of likely fewer than 10 pilots for now, according to Ukrainian assessments.  

Neither Russia nor Ukraine has achieved air superiority because each side has enough surface-to-air missiles to thwart the other’s jets. The addition of the American F-16s, older but relatively sophisticated jet fighters, could give the Ukrainians more effective capability to fight Russian jets and attack targets on the ground.

This, some experts and officials believe, could ultimately bring the Ukrainians closer to the kind of combat that is a mainstay of U.S. military strategy, which integrates infantry, armor, artillery and air power to destroy Russian air and ground-based defenses, penetrate several defensive lines and reclaim territory. 

U.S. officials, meanwhile, have been more conservative in their timeline of getting the F-16s ready for combat. They stress the large maintenance and logistical force needed to keep the advanced jets in the fight in addition to the training burden. Even experienced pilots trained on MiG-29s must learn the Western equipment, including weapons and communications systems. U.S. officials have said Ukrainians wouldn’t be ready to fly F-16s in combat until at least mid-2024, and possibly much later. 

“To get proficient in the F-16, that’s not going to happen overnight,” Gen. James Hecker, the top Air Force commander in Europe, told reporters last month. To get “a couple squadrons of F-16s, and to get their readiness high enough, and their proficiency high enough…could be four or five years down the road.”

Throughout its war with Russia, Ukraine has requested advanced weaponry from the U.S. and Western allies, but often has been told certain capabilities are inappropriate or unnecessary for the fight. In many cases, such as with Abrams tanks, Stinger shoulder-launched antiaircraft missiles, and cluster munitions, the U.S. ultimately provided the weapons.

Dozens of Ukrainian pilots are set to begin English-language training at the Defense Language Institute English Language Center at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio within weeks. Pilots who already speak English will go directly to flight training at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Ariz., home of the 162nd Wing, a U.S. defense official said.

Kyiv has been asking for F-16 jet fighters and training for its pilots to fly them since last year. U.S. officials had earlier rebuffed the request, in part because they didn’t think the jets would have a decisive impact while Ukraine is pursuing a counteroffensive against dug-in Russian positions.

Under pressure from Ukraine and Western allies, the U.S. agreed in August to allow Denmark and the Netherlands to train Ukrainian pilots, and about eight have begun there. But those two countries’ capacity is limited, so the U.S. agreed last month to train Ukrainian pilots in the U.S. too. Greece and Romania have also agreed to train F-16 pilots.

U.S. officials have said giving costly F-16s to Ukraine could elbow out immediate critical military needs such as air-defense missiles and artillery ammunition.

Some officials see the accelerated timetable as realistic.

Ben Hodges, a retired commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said officials are overly concerned with the Ukrainians’ English proficiency. He cited a conversation with a senior Air Force official who had estimated to him in private that the flight training could be completed in as little as three months, two months faster than even the Ukrainians believe it could occur.

“They need to fly a plane, they don’t need to be able to read Shakespeare,” he said. 

U.S. defense officials said that training is only one of many obstacles preventing the F-16s from entering the war.

Ukrainian pilots currently are flying Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoi jets to attack Russian ground targets and defend Ukraine’s airspace. It is unclear how many experienced pilots Kyiv is willing to take away from the battlefield to train in Europe and the U.S. 

An F-16 requires roughly 16 hours of maintenance for every hour in the air, and U.S. officials have warned that finding and training maintenance crews—who also will need to speak English—could be more challenging than preparing the pilots.

A smaller American squadron consists of roughly a dozen jets, 60 pilots and more than 100 people working to maintain the aircraft.

In August, Ukraine’s then-defense minister predicted that F-16s could enter the fight by spring. 

“F-16 aircraft will become part of the air defense,” said Oleksiy Reznikov, whom Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently dismissed from his post. “We can strengthen our capabilities in the skies to protect the airspace—that is, our cities. This would be a big breakthrough for us. Very big.”

In addition to helping Ukraine drive out Russian forces, the U.S. and its NATO allies aim to better integrate Ukraine’s military into the West. While the F-16s might not have an immediate battlefield effect, they will have a long-term impact on Ukraine’s security, said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. 

“It’s an important step in Ukraine’s transition to employing Western-produced aircraft, and the ease of integration will enable their Air Force to use Western weapons provided more effectively,” he said.

Still, in the shorter term, Ukrainian and U.S. officials concede the F-16s will be insufficient to dominate the air war given Russia’s formidable air defenses. Said Hecker, the top Air Force commander in Europe: “It’s not going to be the silver bullet.”