Russia Now Has 'Minimal Offensive Capability' In Ukraine

There is a growing consensus that Russia's ability to conduct any sort of offensive operations is now considered 'minimal,' which is to say that the threat of such actions is significantly reduced.

While the Russians continue to defend in the Tokmak salient, the absence of an offensive Russian threat provides Ukrainian forces with considerable advantage in planning their own operations. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Russian forces are showing "only minimal capability on the offensive," as Russian commanders "struggle to orchestrate complex joint effects, to concentrate sufficient artillery ammunition, and to maintain high morale and offensive spirit." Ukrainian troops have "defeated" Russian c0ounterattacks attacks on recently liberated territory. The Russian military shows "extreme disillusionment" regarding "ill-conceived" advances, lack of artillery support and high losses.

Russian forces are struggling in their attempts to go on the offensive on two parts of the front in Ukraine, according to British defense officials.

With Ukraine's counteroffensive aimed at recapturing Russian-occupied territory nearly four months old, Russian troops have made their own "concerted effort" at counter attacks in the sectors in Orikhiv, (western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and Bakhmut (Donetsk oblast) the U.K. Ministry of Defense said on Monday.

But Ukrainian troops have "defeated" these Russian attacks and held recently liberated territory, the ministry said. It noted how the Russian military community shows "extreme disillusionment" regarding "ill-conceived" advances, lack of artillery support and high losses.

 

Russian forces are showing "only minimal capability on the offensive," the update said as Russian commanders "struggle to orchestrate complex joint effects, to concentrate sufficient artillery ammunition, and to maintain high morale and offensive spirit."

 

However, the update, which emphasizes Russian losses and Ukrainian gains, did note that Moscow's troops have been "capable of conducting stalwart defensive operations," over the last nine months.

 

Ukraine is trying to break through heavily fortified Russian defenses and while Russia has suffered huge losses, defending its positions is likely to be easier than trying to make advances as the conflict settles into a fight of attrition.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said on Sunday that elements of three Russian divisions—its 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 76th Air Assault Division, and 7th Air Assault Division—"are actively defending" against Ukrainian assaults around the Ukrainian salient in the Orikhiv area.

 

A Russian source claimed that the 7th and 76th airborne (VDV) divisions had "failed" to encircle the Ukrainian salient and that the 7th VDV Division's effectiveness had "significantly declined after a successful Ukrainian strike against the division headquarters on September 19."

The general leading Ukraine's counteroffensive along the southern front line, Aleksandr Tarnavsky, told CNN his forces had made a breakthrough in the town of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region, thought to be Ukraine's next major target.

The Telegram account of Russian milblogger VDV Za Teplinsky, named after Russian airborne forces commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, expressed panic at the prospect of significant Ukrainian advances in the Verbove area.

 

The ISW noted how the milblogger had warned on September 22 and 23 that Russia's 56th VDV Regiment was under "imminent threat" of encirclement following the reported Ukrainian advance into Verbove.

However, the think tank said that the milblogger "may be exaggerating the situation...to negatively portray the Russian military command and advocate for Teplinsky to have more control" over decision-making.