Pentagon Terms Ukrainian Breach of 2nd Russian Defense Line "Considerable"

The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency rarely gives public briefings, but in a statement this week, its chief termed Ukraine's breach of the second Russian defensive line south of Robotyne "considerable" and that it has contributed to increased US optimism about the prospects of the counteroffensive's success. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

In a rare on-the-record statement, a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) official says Ukraine’s “breakthrough on that second defensive belt” near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast “is actually pretty considerable.” Ukraine’s recent successes are “significant” and give its forces a “realistic possibility” of breaking the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year. “Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Verbove, expanding their salient.

Ukraine continues to expand the salient it has created in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, pushing closer toward the small town of Verbove, the Institute for the Study of War says in its latest assessment.

“Geolocated footage posted Sept. 7 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Verbove and appear to be expanding their salient to the north of the settlement,” ISW reported.

The movement more than three months into the counteroffensive is significant in that it shows Ukrainian troops have crossed at least the first of three Russian defensive lines and are at or near the second line.

 

"The Ukrainians are gradually gaining ground and it proves the importance of our support and also our ability and willingness to continue the support, because this is heavy fighting, difficult fighting, but they have been able to breach the defensive lines of the Russian forces and they are moving forward," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday. 

Though the counteroffensive’s progress has been heavily criticized in the West and even noted by Ukrainian officials, the ISW assessment also lines up with a more optimistic view painted recently by a U.S. intelligence official.

In a rare on-the-record statement, a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) official says Ukraine’s “breakthrough on that second defensive belt” near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast “is actually pretty considerable.”

“Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic,” Trent Maul, the DIA’s director of analysis, told The Economist in an exclusive story published Wednesday.

As The Economist explains, Maul’s agency is tasked with trying to answer questions like: Can Ukraine breach the second defensive line and the third one behind it before artillery ammunition becomes harder to find and winter weather sets in making any progress more difficult?

To answer that, the DIA will look for signs that Russia can keep providing its front-line units with artillery and maintain leadership at the unit level.

Past analyses, he admitted, have not been spot on.

Maul conceded that American and Ukrainian officials failed to appreciate the depth of Russia’s defenses and how difficult it would be for Ukraine to “smash through” them with armor. Despite a report by the Guardian newspaper that 80% of Russia’s effort went into building its first and second lines, Maul warned that the bulk of Russia’s reinforcements remain at the third.

The DIA will also be monitoring Ukraine’s ammunition stockpiles as well as the weather, which will become wetter in the autumn, adding thick, oozing mud to any maneuver calculus.

Maul offered The Economist a less gloomy take on Ukraine’s chances of success than some unnamed Biden administration officials, one of whom estimated that Ukraine has about six to seven weeks of combat left before its counteroffensive culminates.

Ukraine’s recent successes are “significant” and give its forces a “realistic possibility” of breaking the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year, the publication reported, adding that Maul’s comment was “intel-speak for 40-50% probability.

Still, Maul did offer a caveat.

Limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this “very difficult.”

For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry hasn't outright denied that Ukraine has advanced to its defensive lines. Instead, it claimed on its Telegram channel Thursday that "units of the Russian grouping of troops, aviation and artillery, have repelled 14 [Armed Forces of Ukraine] attacks close to Verbove and Robotyne."

The coming weeks will show the level of progress Ukraine is really making in its drive toward cities like Tokmak and Melitopol as it seeks to either reach Crimea or cut off the so-called land bridge through Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

But as Maul, the DIA official told The Economist, attention is already turning to next year.

Even without a breakthrough this year, the DIA is moderately confident that if Ukraine can widen the salient around Robotyne, hold its positions and keep ammo flowing in, it will be well placed for a fresh push in 2024, he said.

The Latest

The Pentagon is pushing back on Russian complaints that depleted uranium (DU) tank rounds being given to Ukraine for use in soon-to-arrive Abrams main battle tanks pose grave health risks.

 

In response to the announcement yesterday that the U.S. was providing an unspecified number of these rounds, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov on Thursday said they increase cancer rates in areas they’ve been used in the past.

Hours later, Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon spokesperson, countered that assertion, saying several studies have indicated that there are no health concerns from the armor-piercing rounds. A by-product of fuel produced for nuclear reactors that has greatly reduced radioactivity, DU is an incredibly dense metal. DU munitions on impact become a semi-molten projectile that burn through armor, with any fragments (also known as spall) that break off inside causing extreme damage to the interior and its occupants.

The video below offers a general overview of how the dart-like armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) round, works.

And, while Singh said the Pentagon hopes those rounds will arrive in Ukraine at about the same time the promised Abrams tanks, similar DU munitions have already been promised by the U.K. for use in the Challenger 2 tanks it donated to Ukraine. You can read more about those rounds and how they work in our story here.

The DU rounds were included in one of two tranches of aid to Ukraine the Pentagon has announced over the past two days.

On Thursday the DoD announced an aid package, valued up to $600 million, through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) that contracts out for items as opposed to taking them out of existing U.S. stocks.

The capabilities in the package include:

• Equipment to sustain and integrate Ukraine's air defense systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 105mm artillery rounds;
• Electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare equipment;
• Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing;
• Mine clearing equipment; and
• Support and equipment for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.

EASTERN UKRAINE , UKRAINE - JULY 1: Kuzia, the commander of the unit, shows the rockets on HIMARS vehicle in Eastern Ukraine on July 1, 2022. (Photo by Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

 

Singh declined to offer any details about what kinds of electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare equipment that package will include.

That package follows one announced Wednesday, valued at up to $175 million, which included the DU rounds. That items will be delivered via the 46th Presidential Drawdown Authority package, which provides items from existing stocks.

In addition to the DU rounds, the capabilities in this package include:

• Equipment to support Ukraine's air defense systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• 81mm mortars systems and rounds; 
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition; 
• Tactical air navigation systems; 
• Tactical secure communications systems and support equipment;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

The Javelins anti-armor systems provided to Ukraine have been so helpful that it resulted in the creation of St. Javelin to honor it. (Photo by Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

 

Speaking of Javelins, Poland may one day produce the weapons locally under newly signed contracts.

According to Defense News, “Poland’s state-run defense group PGZ has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Javelin Joint Venture (JJV), a partnership between Lockheed Martin and RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, to jointly produce Javelin anti-tank weapons.”

“Together with PGZ, we are exploring a number of opportunities to leverage the resident skills and expertise of Polish industry for Javelin co-production,” Andy Amaro, the president of the JJV and RTX’s Javelin program director, was quoted in a statement.

The team-up with U.S. industry players will allow the partners “to evaluate the possibility to set up a final assembly plant and produce components in Poland,” PGZ said in its statement, the publication reported.

In addition, JJV representatives submitted an offer to the Polish group to have parts of Javelin weapons produced at PGZ’s subsidiary Mesko, according to the statement.

A drone attack caused an explosion near Russia’s military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don on Thursday.

Social media videos geolocated by CNN showed the attack in the vicinity of the military base. In a Telegram post earlier, Rostov regional governor Vasily Golubev said one person was injured and several cars were damaged after Russian air defenses intercepted two drones over the city.

An “emergency mode” was enacted around the crash site and 99 residents were offered alternative temporary accommodation, Golubev said, adding that no one was killed in the incident.

 

"Facades were damaged and windows of three buildings were broken, several cars were damaged. Only one person sought medical help, with incised leg wounds, he refused hospitalization," Golubev claimed.

Ukrainian officials did not make any immediate comment.

Rostov-on-Don is in southern Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border. It was briefly occupied by Wagner troops during the private military group’s brief rebellion against the Kremlin earlier this year.

There was also an unconfirmed Ukrainian drone attack on a major Russian microelectronics plant in Bryansk Oblast.

"A powerful explosion rocked Kremny El plant in Bryansk (western Russia), Russian media reported," according to the Ukrainian Euromaidan Press media outlet.

The governor of the Bryansk region, Aleksander Bogomaz, confirmed on his Telegram channel that there was an attack on an industrial facility there.

A Ukrainian drone attack "was made on an industrial facility in the city of Bryansk," he wrote. "As a result, the administrative building caught fire. There were no casualties. Fire brigades, operational and emergency services are on the scene."

Bogomaz did not specify which facility was hit.

Kremny EL is "the second largest producer of microelectronics in the Russian federation," according to the Ukrainian Defense Express media outlet.