As Ukraine Solidifies Gains, New Strategic Options Emerge For Next Line of Attack

Ukraine's success in breaching Russian lines south of Robotyne and before Tokmak appears to confirm that as the Ukrainians' next objective. Or does it?

The Ukrainians have been clever about disguising their tactics and strategy. Attacking Tokmak head-on might yet  work as Russian forces face further depletion and the Ukrainians continue to make headway, but as the following article explains, there are alternative routes south which also hold advantages, especially as Russia reinforces the already heavily defended Tokmak sector. The larger implication is that ongoing success gives Ukraine more options. JL 

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

There is a current assumption that Ukraine will make a bee-line towards Tokmak.  (But), Ukraine can achieve many of the same objectives without needing to take Tokmak. Tokmak is at a crossroads including the H-30 highway which runs to Berdiansk.  It is also on the only E/W rail line across Southern Ukraine. So it is a worthy objective. Attacking along the fortifications instead of in to them will negate much of their value.  It will also expand the active frontage that doesn’t have kilometers of mines in front of it spreading the Russians out again.  And it does so while increasing Ukraine’s ability to better supply thrusts south.

The Current situation around Tokmak. White lines are railroads.

There is a current assumption that Ukraine will be making a bee-line towards Tokmak.  While that is certainly a strong possibility, Ukraine can achieve many of the same objectives without needing to directly take Tokmak.  Tokmak is at a crossroads including the H-30 highway which runs from Vasylivka to Berdiansk.  It is also on the only E/W rail line across Southern Ukraine.  That E/W rail line is critical to Russia, particularly when it comes to long distance troop movement.  So it is a worthy objective and Ukraine currently seems to be headed directly for it.

However, there are other possibilities for Ukraine to consider.  Taking Tokmak will be a hit to Russia, but not of much use to Ukraine without capturing the H-30 or connecting a railroad.  And with railroads, the Deep State map is slightly deficient (even though it is excellent in so many ways).  There are rail lines heading north out of Polohy and north out of Vasylivka.  Near Vasylivka was one of Ukraine’s early attempt to break the line this summer, and for good reason.  If you look at the Apple Satellite Map below I’ve pointed out the railroad that ran along the reservoir prior to it being drained.

Yellow arrows point to the railroad.

 Feel free to zoom in on Apple Maps to satisfy yourself it is actually there (or was when the satellites took the picture).  I’ve taken the liberty to draw in the missing rail lines on the map below.  Though they are hard to see in the Ukraine controlled area due to poor contrast.

I’ve drawn in white lines in the approximate location of the railway.

If Ukraine could take these rail lines they would control N/S rail lines on either side of Tokmak.  While Tokmak hurts Russia but doesn’t help Ukraine much, Ukraine taking either or both rail lines would greatly strengthen their position logistically.  Getting far enough south on either line also serves the same goal of cutting the E/W line that getting Tokmak would serve.

Sharp people will notice my drawn blue lines are much longer than a direct path to Tokmak, so would it be worth it to Ukraine?  Well, that depends.  At the moment Russia is pouring as many troops into the Tokmak area that they can manage to pull from elsewhere.  So long as Ukraine can make progress moving directly south, then Tokmak is a fine objective to keep driving towards.  But if the Russians manage to make it impractical for Ukraine to continue straight to Tokmak, then the above plan may be more important.  Particularly when we remember that Tokmak isn’t the final objective.  Cutting the full land bridge is, including that highway running from Melitopol to Berdiansk.  Taking Tokmak cuts the rail line and takes out an important Russian supply hub.  But it doesn’t stop goods out of Berdiansk or up from Crimea (on its own).  It also doesn’t directly help Ukraine get further south.  While it’s possible to keep supplying through Robotyne and the current salient along T-04-08 road there, it’s not the same as a full rail line bringing in supplies.  And at some point Ukraine needs to widen the salient anyway to not risk it being cut off.

Ukraine attacking along the fortifications instead of in to them will negate much of the value of the fortifications.  It will also expand the active frontage that doesn’t have kilometers of mines in front of it spreading the Russians out again.  And it does so while increasing Ukraine’s ability to better supply thrusts south.

There is always the chance that Ukraine will not need to use this plan, particularly if the Russians run out of reserves and start to break.  I just wanted to point out that Ukraine has options and possible goals other than Tokmak.