Ukrainian Forces Push Russians Out of Positions Around Avdiivka

The significance of this report is that Avdiivka was the focus of Russian attacks for much of the winter. 

That the Russians may be retreating suggests that they are not capable of defending the entirety of their defensive front and are being forced back in areas they are unable to reinforce as Ukraine identifies points of weakness. JL

David Brennan reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine's armed forces have ejected Russian troops from positions close to the strategic town of Avdiivka, northeast of Donetsk which has been occupied since 2014. In the opening months of 2023 it was almost entirely surrounded in Russia's winter offensive. Kyiv's push to the south has garnered significant attention in recent weeks, particularly after reports of gains in the Robotyne and Orikhiv raised Ukrainian hopes of a breakthrough of Russian defensive lines. Success on this axis might facilitate a Ukrainian advance towards the occupied city of Melitopol and, eventually, the Sea of Azov coastline.

Ukraine's armed forces claim to have ejected Russian troops from positions close to the strategic town of Avdiivka, a settlement on the northeastern edge of the occupied city of Donetsk which has been at the center of Russia's war on its neighbor since 2014.

Pavlo Kovalchuk, a spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on Wednesday that Kyiv's forces had secured fresh gains around Avdiivka, which in the opening months of 2023 was almost entirely surrounded in Russia's winter offensive.

"Ukrainian troops knocked the Russians out of positions near Avdiivka," Kovalchuk said, according to the Military Media Center Telegram channel. "During the conduct of offensive assault operations by the Defense Forces, the enemy was forced to withdraw from their positions in the area south of Avdiivka," the spokesperson added.

Unconfirmed battlefield maps shared by pro-Ukrainian Twitter accounts indicated a small but significant potential Ukrainian success to the south of Avdiivka.

 

The Institute for the Study of War, however, noted that Ukrainian attacks around Avdiivka on Tuesday did not win Kyiv any new territory.

"Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and did not advance on August 1," the think tank wrote in its Tuesday night bulletin. The Russian Defense Ministry, it said, claimed that to have "repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Sieverne," some four miles west of Avdiivka and Marinka, just southwest of Donetsk City.

Moscow's forces also launched their own local attacks, according to the ISW: "Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and did not advance on August 1."

"The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Marinka, and Pobieda," to the southwest of Donetsk, the ISW said. "A Russian milblogger also reported unsuccessful Russian ground attacks near Marinka and Pobieda."

This Institute for the Study of War map shows Ukrainian battlefield advances in Donetsk Oblast as of August 1, 2023. Ukrainian sources have claimed small advances around the eastern city of Avdiivka.INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR

The ISW did report limited Ukrainian advances on August 1 in the northeastern Kreminna direction, where Kyiv's forces are responding to a fresh push by Russian troops seemingly intended to distract attention and resources for the main Ukrainian counteroffensive effort in the south.

Kyiv's units also progressed around the devastated Donetsk Oblast city of Bakhmut, where for several weeks Ukrainian forces have been trying to outflank the Russian units holding what remains of the city.

 

"Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue advancing in the Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces are unsuccessfully defending against Ukrainian attacks.," the ISW noted.

"Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces changed tactics and are now operating smaller assault groups on the Andriivka-Klishchiivka line," it added. "Another Russian milblogger noted that the situation in Bakhmut 'is suspiciously quiet' and that there is almost no movement on the ground."

Kyiv's push to the south has garnered significant attention in recent weeks, particularly after reports of gains in the Robotyne and Orikhiv raised Ukrainian hopes of a breakthrough of Russian defensive lines in the area. Success on this axis might facilitate a Ukrainian advance towards the occupied city of Melitopol and, eventually, the Sea of Azov coastline.

 

The ISW reported no confirmed military advances on the southern front on August 1, and noted varied Russian claims of unsuccessful Ukrainian attacks near the villages of Staromaiorske and Robotyne.

"The lack of consensus in the Russian information space as to the size of this purported Ukrainian attack near Robotyne suggests that Ukrainian forces are most likely continuing to conduct limited attacks in this area," the ISW wrote.

Prospects of a Ukrainian breakthrough in the south appear to have dimmed after last week's reported success. The battlefield picture has reverted back to one of slow, small, costly Ukrainian advances and unsuccessful Russian counterattacks, akin to the broader character of Kyiv's long-awaited counteroffensive since it began in early June.

Ukraine now has 150,000 troops—among them Western-trained brigades—committed to the counteroffensive on three axes of attack, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed Pentagon official. Kyiv still has troops in reserve as it seeks weak spots to exploit in the Russian lines.