Ukraine Makes Strategic Gains At Robotyne, Urozhaine, Trans-Dnipro Fronts

Significant advances on three crucial - and interlocking - fronts suggest that Russian forces may be beginning to buckle under the weight of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukrainian forces have established their first foothold in Robotyne. Robotyne’s liberation breaks the first of three Russian defensive lines on the path to strategic Tokmak, a key logistical hub, (and) would put Tokmak in range of Ukrainian tube artillery. Ukraine now has a foothold in Urozhaine. This is the approach toward Mariupol with a single major defensive line. Across the Dnipro, Ukraine is becoming more aggressive in pushing south into that contested delta. A Ukrainian established presence in this area would be a direct threat to Russia’s Crimean supply lines and Melitopol’s western flank.

Southeast of Kherson, on the other side of the Dnipro, Ukrainian forces staged a surprise attack on the town of Kozachi Laheri. While some sources described this as a “raid,” others claimed the fighting had been ongoing for 1-2 days. While Russian propagandists are making sure people know that Russia still retains control of the settlement, there is plenty of geolocated evidence of heavy fighting.

Ukraine still has significant logistical difficulties in moving forces, equipment, and supplies across the Dnipro, but it is becoming more aggressive in pushing south into that contested delta marshland. A Ukrainian established presence in this area would be a direct threat to Russia’s Crimean supply lines and Melitopol’s western flank.

Arrow points in the direction of Kozachi Laheri. Russia can’t afford to let Ukraine establish a stable beachhead on this side of the Dnipro, south of Kherson city

So now Russia has to decide—is this a serious enough threat to its flanks that it needs to send its own reinforcements to handle the situation? It’s certainly not as big a situation as the fighting around Kupyansk, but without a proper Russian response, it can certainly blossom into one.

Meanwhile, at the main front, Ukrainian forces have, at reportedly high cost, established their first foothold in Robotyne. That area is a hornet’s nest of Russian defenses:

Robotyne is just part of the difficult journey toward’s Tokmak

It’s been slow, grueling work, but Ukraine has advanced on both the town’s flanks, mostly marked here as contested gray area.

Not only would Robotyne’s liberation break the first of three Russian defensive lines on the path to strategic Tokmak, a key logistical hub for the area much as Kupyansk was, but it would put Tokmak in range of Ukrainian tube artillery, further messing with Russia’s logistics along this critical part of the front. Currently, Ukraine needs to use scarce and precious GMLRS rocket artillery to hit those targets.

On another part of this front, Ukraine now has a foothold in Urozhaine. This is the approach toward Mariupol with a single major defensive line. All those Ukrainian armored units, they’re waiting for the opening through these minefield-infested defenses before romping in the backfield. At least that’s the obvious hope.