But just as importantly, Ukraine is thinking and acting strategically by interrupting Russia's supply chains, reducing its ability to generate foreign currency and hindering its ability to supply its troops at the front. JL
Lauren Jackson and colleagues report in the New York Times:
A fire that erupted on Friday at the freight port in the southern city of Novorossiysk disrupted one of Russia’s most important trade sites for exporting oil and grain. “The counteroffensive is thought of too linearly as progress reclaiming territory. Just as important to the counteroffensive is Ukraine’s ability to cut Russia’s supply chain and attack Russia in deep positions. That’s what is happening in the Black Sea.” Kyiv now has an agile weapon: a fleet of sea drones. They are forcing Russia to develop defenses against them, devoting more resources to protecting ships, ports and bridges from attacks that threaten its economy and its ability to resupply troops.
Ukrainian forces have been fighting a brutal counteroffensive for the past two months, struggling to break through on land. Yet they have made progress on another front: the Black Sea, a vital shipping route for both sides of the war.
A fire that erupted on Friday at the freight port in the southern city of Novorossiysk disrupted one of Russia’s most important trade sites for exporting oil and grain. It was not immediately clear what caused the blaze.
Here is a look at the Black Sea port and its significance for Moscow:
What is Novorossiysk?
The Novorossiysk commercial seaport is one of Russia’s largest by volume and among the biggest in Europe — a major node in the export of Russian grain, oil, and other products to countries around the world.
It has been a hub of international commerce for Russia since the 19th century and the city was also the site of the first Pepsi factory in Russia, opened in the Soviet Union in the early 1970s during the Cold War détente.
Before his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia allocated significant resources to the construction of the naval base at Novorossiysk, turning the port into one of the country’s main naval hubs for the Black Sea.
How important is Novorossiysk for Russia’s economy?
The port is a significant export hub for grain, given its proximity to Russia’s biggest grain-producing regions and its location on the Black Sea, which allows for easy exports to Africa, Asia and South America, in addition to Europe.
At a summit with African leaders last month in St. Petersburg, Russia, Mr. Putin promised free grain to a number of African nations — grain that probably would be exported from Russia via Novorossiysk.
What does the fire mean for Russia?
The Russian authorities did not say what caused the blaze on Friday, only that wooden shipping pallets had caught fire and that a 1,300-square-meter area of the port was affected.
But the blaze comes amid heightened tensions in the Black Sea and just weeks after a Ukrainian maritime drone hit a Russian warship in Novorossiysk.
That attack — and the subsequent pause in maritime traffic at the port — prompted wheat futures to rise at the time, an indication of Novorossiysk’s importance to the global grain trade. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates an oil terminal at Novorossiysk, said Friday that the terminal was “operating normally” after the blaze, according to the Russian state news agency Tass.
Last month, Russia withdrew from a deal that had allowed ships to safely export grain from Ukraine across the Black Sea. Within days, Moscow bombarded Ukrainian ports and threatened foreign cargo ships.
Ukraine responded by sending a new class of sea drones to attack Russian ships and infrastructure hundreds of miles away. Ukraine is hoping the drones will keep Russia from controlling the sea and, ultimately, allow shipments to resume. Yesterday, a civilian cargo ship sailed safely through Ukrainian waters in the Black Sea for the first time since the deal collapsed.
“The counteroffensive is often thought of too linearly as progress reclaiming territory,” said our colleague Marc Santora, who covers the war from Ukraine. “Just as important to the counteroffensive is Ukraine’s ability to cut Russia’s supply chain and attack Russia in deep positions. And that’s what is happening in the Black Sea.”
Today’s newsletter explains how the Black Sea became a hot spot and what it means for Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
A battleground, again
Even before invading, Russia sought to be the dominant force in the Black Sea, which is bordered primarily by Russia, Ukraine and three NATO countries. Upon invading, Russia decimated Ukraine’s much smaller navy and blockaded its ports.
While Ukraine fought back with missiles, sinking a major Russian ship, Moscow’s warships were mostly able to sail with impunity, launching missiles at Ukrainian towns and cities.
After both sides agreed to keep shipping routes across the water open in an international deal, an uneasy status quo held for nearly a year. Ukraine was able to export grain, propping up its economy and the global food supply, and Russia mostly refrained from attacking ports.
But the deal was shaky. Russia complained that the terms favored Ukraine — which had kept launching small-scale attacks against the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula on the Black Sea — while international sanctions hurt the Russian economy. After repeated threats, Russia quit the agreement last month. The deal’s collapse drove up global grain prices and reopened the Black Sea as a major battleground.
“During the period when the corridor was opened for grain, the Black Sea faded a bit from international attention,” Marc said. “The closing of that corridor not only threatens global food supplies but ushered in a new, turbulent phase in the battle at sea.”
Russia has made it clear it wants to keep its economic stranglehold on Ukrainian exports. But unlike in the beginning of the war, Kyiv now has an agile weapon to fight back: an expanded fleet of sea drones.
Similar to unstaffed aerial drones, the small vessels, often no longer than 18 feet, can travel hundreds of miles to strike or surveil targets. They are fast and stealthy and do not require Ukrainian sailors to risk their lives. “The most common ones are sort of like unmanned speedboats that are packed with explosives,” Marc said.
Ukraine first used sea drones in a large-scale attack in October, striking Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol. (These graphics from Reuters explain the attack). After, Ukraine developed its fleet of more sophisticated craft — drones that could carry more explosives on board. This month, Ukrainian sea drones struck both a Russian warship near a naval port and a Russian oil tanker.
Each drone costs only about $250,000 and can damage or destroy multimillion-dollar Russian ships. Because the drones are relatively new, they are now forcing Russia to develop sophisticated defenses against them. It may have to devote more resources to protecting ships, ports and bridges from attacks that threaten its economy and its ability to resupply troops.
“We’re now in a place where Ukraine can increasingly fight back at sea,” Marc said.
A shifting strategy
The sea drones are an example of how Ukraine has gotten creative to outsmart a more powerful, better-armed opponent.
Wars often inspire naval innovations. The American Civil War saw the first clash between ironclad warships. World War I introduced widespread submarine warfare. World War II showed the superiority of aircraft carriers over battleships.
Even if it fails to turn the tide of the war, Ukraine’s pioneering use of sea drones may have a similar effect. It is the first country to use sea drones at large scale in war, and both sides have deployed large numbers of aerial drones to target artillery, drop bombs and attack cities. Ukraine’s attack on Sevastopol was the first in history to use both sea and aerial drones. “Every military expert I’ve spoken to said that moment is going to be studied for years to come as a moment where naval warfare globally shifted,” Marc said.
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