How Ukraine Shows Democracy Inspires Greater Creativity and Innovation

18 months into the war, Ukraine is the combatant demonstrating more aggressive application of innovation to create military advantage. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

One of the reasons Ive been generally optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects in this war, is that the Ukrainian side, being more democratic and fighting for its freedom, has greater societal commitment and creativity on its side. This gives Ukraine a major advantage in adaptability and the ability to create new systems in a short period of time. This week, this adaptability and creativity really revealed itself in the Black Sea. 18 months after the Russian invasion and it is the Ukrainians that are being the more aggressive and adaptive at the war at sea (which no one though they could even compete in).

One of the reasons Ive been generally optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects in this war, is that the Ukrainian side, being more democratic and fighting for its freedom, has greater societal commitment and creativity on its side. This gives Ukraine a major advantage in adaptability and the ability to create new systems in a short period of time. This week, this adaptability and creativity really revealed itself in the Black Sea. There was first the extraordinary footage of the sea drone attack on this Russian vessel. Here is a link to it.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1687365817233461248?s=20

That video reveals so much. Here is a pretty slow sea drone, which has an above water profile, seemingly able to hit a major Russian naval vessel without encountering any major defensive fire (I didn’t see any) or any defensive systems protecting the ship. A few people tweeted out that it was far from Ukraine or at night—who cares. The Russian Navy should be at war footing in an operational zone. This looks far too lax of them.

 

The Ukrainians followed this up with another attack (not publicly confirmed, but we know who did this) against a Russian tanker (alternately described as an oil tanker or a chemical tanker).

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1687710262097240064?s=20

Not long after, pictures emerged of flooding in the tanker (see below).

What to make of these attacks. While here we are 18 months after the Russian full-scale invasion and it is the Ukrainians that are being the more aggressive and adaptive at the war at sea (which no one though they could even compete in). They are attacking Russian war and commercial vessels in quick succession and getting hits. This poses a great dilemma for the Russians. Do they now deploy more of their surface assets to protect tankers and the like while they transit the Black Sea—which will make those warships inviting targets? Do they try to attack the Ukrainian coast—which has already shown itself to be deadly to Russian forces?

All we know is that the Russian response to these attacks shows just how angry they are. People waking up this morning will have heard of one the largest Russian (expensive) missile attacks for a while, as the Russians launched Kinzhals, Kalibrs, etc, in large numbers at Ukraine last night.

Ukrainian air defenses are so relatively effective that even this large attack was mostly shot down. However the key thing is that this is how the Russian have to respond to set backs on the war at sea. Its the angry rage, strike back. What will be more important to see is whether the Russians will try to now enforce their blockade against civilian vessels sailing in and out of Ukrainian ports picking up grain. Remember last week, the Russians showed themselves too nervous to actually make that step. Now they might want to to try—and in doing so will expose more of their vessels to attack.

This kinds of thing matters to me in an understanding of war. That the war on the Black Sea is actually one that Ukraine is not only partaking in, but actually showing success in, is an excellent example of why the war is one that Ukraine has fought and will continue to fight so well.

The Saudi Summit

I still don’t know what to make of the summit in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible peace deal in Ukraine that just started a few hours ago. At first I was very skeptical and paid it little attention. Both sides in this war seem to want to fight it out this summer/fall and see what the campaign reveals about the military balance.

A May picture of Pres Zelensky meeting with Saudi Crown Prince MBS.

However, as the week went on, some interesting wrinkles showed up. These are not wrinkles large enough to make you think that a peace deal is in the making, but at least that Ukraine’s international support might be stronger (outside of the west) than people think.

First, the Ukrainian government spoke very positively about the possibilities for the upcoming talks. Zelensky Advisor M. Podolyak was maybe most outspoken on this (but there were others) saying:

“In Saudi Arabia, in fact, the foundations of a new global political architecture are being laid. This architecture will no longer have the "aggressive subjectivity of the Russian Federation", which has provoked key instabilities over the past 15-20 years, and a return to stable rules in the form of modernized "international law" is possible in its framework.”

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1687369282517082112?s=20

What Podolyak is referring to is the fact that all the great global forces in this war will be represented in Saudi Arabia—except Russia. Most importantly China has decided to partake, and the Saudis have been able to convince powers from the global south to be there as well.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seeks-global-support-peace-blueprint-saudi-talks-2023-08-03/

In other words, its not just a gathering of Ukraine’s friends, its actually a large and powerful international bloc. These meetings can either fizzle out, or they can go down suprizing routes. This one will try to start writing down principles for a possible peace deal for Ukraine. If China is there, and endorses principles that are acceptable to the Ukrainian state—that would be extremely worrying for Russia.

It probably wont get that far (being a pessimist) but the fact that Ukraine is being treated in this way and Russia is being excluded is worthy of note.

The Counteroffensive

The line moved only a little this week, though there were reports that the Ukrainian have reached the main Surovikin line. That being said, these advances are not the key thing. As has been the situation for the last few weeks, the Ukrainians are not committing their reserves to try for another major combined arms advance. They are continuing to use range fires on Russian artillery, logistics, C/C as they have for a while now. Actually, the Institute for the Study of War had a good update on all of this, this morning—and as I would say much of the same things, and I’m on holiday, will link to them.