Ukrainians Reported "To Break Through Prepared Russian Positions South of Orikhiv"

In what may be the most important news from the new counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian troops are reported by independent sources to have broken through the first line of prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. 

If this is confirmed, it may suggest a deeper thrust than earlier reports intimated. JL 

David Stern and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

Ukrainian forces “launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation” in Zaporizhzhia and appeared “to have broken through pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.” There were signs that Russian troops in Orikhiv had been worn down after weeks of fighting. One of the most experienced Russian units there, the 58th Combined Arms Army, recently lost its commander after he criticized Moscow’s military strategy. “If the Ukrainians are putting new fresh troops and if they can break through, then they can use their advantage in armored vehicles to gain a lot of territory,”

Ukraine has reported gains in the southeast after launching a new counteroffensive push. Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk region said they had recaptured a village, which would be the first that Kyiv reclaimed from Russia in weeks. The Washington Post could not independently verify the claim.

 

In its daily report on the conflict, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington said Ukrainian forces had “launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation” in Zaporizhzhia and appeared “to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.”

 

Ukrainian troops made slow but steady gains in their ongoing counteroffensive to drive a wedge through the Russian-occupied south.

Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corp., said she was concerned that Ukraine could be deploying troops it had held in reserve before breaking through Russia’s first line of defense.

“The reserves were intended to exploit an opening, not be a battering ram to create one,” Massicot said, cautioning that Ukraine had not achieved a “major breakthrough” anywhere along the front line since the counteroffensive began in early June.

Massicot added, however, that there were signs that Russian troops in Orikhiv had been worn down after weeks of fighting. One of the most experienced Russian units there, the 58th Combined Arms Army, recently lost its commander after he criticized Moscow’s military strategy, according to an account by the commander posted to Telegram.

“If the Ukrainians are putting new fresh troops and if they can break through, then they can use their advantage in armored vehicles to gain a lot of territory,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and defense expert with CSIS, referring to the more advanced vehicles that Ukraine has received from its Western allies.

To the south of the eastern city of Bakhmut — which fell to Russia in May after months of vicious fighting — Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said Kyiv’s forces were “gradually moving forward.” North of the city, Ukrainian troops were “repelling enemy attacks,” she said.

“Battles are quite tough,” Maliar wrote in a post on social media. “The enemy is firing intensively.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video on his official Telegram channel late Thursday that showed soldiers from Ukraine’s 35th Brigade claiming to have liberated the village of Staromaiorske, in the Donetsk region.

 

If confirmed, it would be the first village retaken by Ukrainian forces in weeks — a much-needed victory for Kyiv and a grim reminder of how much hard fighting lies ahead.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that fighting had “substantially intensified” in recent days, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, echoing extravagant, and unconfirmed, Ministry of Defense claims about Ukrainian losses.

Ukrainian officials said their forces made advances south of Orikhiv in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, in a drive to reach the Sea of Azov, which would sever Moscow’s land bridge to occupied Crimea and limit Moscow’s ability to move troops and equipment.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukrainian forces “are gradually moving forward” south of the eastern city of Bakhmut but that “battles are quite tough.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, in St. Petersburg for the Kremlin’s Russia-Africa Summit, said the fighting in southeastern Ukraine had intensified.

 

Ukraine aims to reach the Sea of Azov, severing Moscow’s land bridge to Crimea in the process, although Ukrainian forces remain far from the sea. Ukraine has in recent weeks launched attacks on Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

 

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Ukrainian forces mounted offensive actions in Zaporizhzhia on Friday. Putin said earlier that “most of the armed clashes” have taken place in the southern Ukrainian region. A U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity in line with ground rules had said that it was unclear what the moves may be but that a boost in Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia could be the result of fresh troops probing Russian lines or replacing fatigued units.