Ukraine's New Southern Assault Making "Significant" Gains Against Russians

Ukrainian advances in the three sectors comprising the new phase of their counteroffensive are being described as 'significant.'

There is both geo-located and video proof of territorial gains in addition to an outpouring of hysterical commentary from Russian sources. The Ukrainians themselves are saying little, exercising operational security to mask movement and to confuse the Russians. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos, image Anatolii Stepanov AFP:

Russian war bloggers are in all-out panic mode as Ukraine appears to be notching significant gains. In the direction of Robotyne/Tokmak, Ukraine advanced 5 kilometers east of Robotyne and 2 kilometers west. The town is now under threat from three sides. Ukraine reached Russia’s first line, the “Toblerone” concrete fortifications. Russia may be forced to retreat from Robotyne before their garrison gets cut off. Toward Staromlynivka Mariupol, Ukrainian forces are now in Staromaiorske, and has moved past the town. If they punch through here, Ukraine can either drive toward Melitopol, severing the land bridge, or loop west and cut off Russian defenses from the rear.

Yesterday’s update examined what seemed to be the beginning of Ukraine’s main counteroffensive thrust. Pentagon officials certainly claim that it is. “Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast,” reported the New York Times. (Someone tell the Times that Melitopol is 50 kilometers from the nearest coast …)

The fog of war remains thick, with little information coming from the Ukrainian side. But Russian war bloggers are certainly in all-out panic mode as Ukraine appears to be notching significant gains.

Here is the map of the southern Zaporizhzhia front, with Ukraine’s main thrusts and main Russian defensive lines in yellow.

Russian sources claim a serious Ukrainian push on all three of those approaches, as Ukraine aims to sever the “land bridge” though southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that connect mainland Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. In particular, liberating Melitopol would crumble Russian defenses in this entire slice of territory. Furthermore, with Crimea’s water supply cut off and the Kerch Bridge in closer range of Ukrainian missile attacks, Russia’s hold on Crimea would be tenuous at best.

The latest updates from the front:

In the direction of Robotyne/Tokmak, Ukraine reportedly advanced 5 kilometers east of Robotyne and 2 kilometers west of the settlement. With continued pressure from the north, the town is now under threat from three sides. In fact, we now have video of Ukraine reaching Russia’s first line with the “Toblerone” concrete fortifications. It’s only a matter of time before Russia is forced to retreat from Robotyne, before their garrison there gets cut off.

We know Ukraine is there because of this video of them sending an unmanned vehicle to test the approach to that tank ditch.

The keen-eyed among you might notice two major things here: Nothing was fired at that vehicle as it approached the ditch, and it hit no mines. Is anyone manning this line? That would be something, huh? Never assume the best, but we can always hope for it.

To advance, Ukraine must bridge the tank ditch, get through the inevitable minefield between it and those white concrete pyramid barriers, and then hit the entrenched infantry presumably hidden in that tree line. Still weird that no anti-tank missiles were fired from that tree line. Either way, these are legit advances.

Still, this is the most heavily defended part of the front. Look at this hornet’s nest Ukraine must navigate to get to Tokmak.

Tokmak, again, is a key logistics hub for Russia. They know it, literally ringing it with defenses. Liberating Robotyne alone will put huge pressure on Russian supply lines in the town, as it will be in range of Ukrainian tube artillery. GMLRS rocket artillery can already hit it (and did so today), but those rounds are scarce and expensive. Extended-range shells cost around $8,000 and are far more plentiful compared to $100,000+ for GMLRS. Ukraine will be able to turn up the heat exponentially. Here’s a good explainer as to why Tokmak is so important.

Toward Staromlynivka/Mariupol, Ukrainian forces are now in Staromaiorske, and Russian sources claim Ukraine has moved past the town.

That means the towns of Zavitne Bazhannya, Urozhaine, and Staromlynivka are next. Ukraine is still around 8 kilometers from the first—and only—defensive line in this approach.

If they punch through here, Ukraine can either drive down toward Melitopol, fully severing the land bridge, or they can loop west and cut off Russian defenses from the rear. To be sure, that’s easier said than done, mostly because of the logistics of supporting such an operation. But it sure would be sweet.

Around Bakhmut, Ukraine continues to consolidate positions both north and south of the city. On its southern flank, Andriivka is likely liberated, while Ukraine holds the heights west of Klishchiivka and is pushing into the town.