Ukraine Launches "Massive Assault" South of Zaporizhzhia. Advances Reported

After weeks of slow but steady gains, reports from the Pentagon, NATO and Russia reveal that Ukrainian forces have launched a massive assault  south on Russian lines in the direction of Tokmak.

This offensive is apparently deploying many of the troops trained and equipment provided by NATO. Early reports suggest that the Ukrainians are making significant advances. JL 

James McKinley, Eric Schmitt and colleagues report in the New York Times:

The main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, officials said Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve. The Ukrainians mounted a “massive” assault with three battalions, reinforced with tanks, south of  Orikhiv, and then another a few miles farther south near Robotyne. Ukrainian forces sensed an opportunity with the sacking of the Russian commander, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, to exploit turmoil in leadership. “The Russians are stretched, still experiencing problems with logistics, supply, personnel and weapons. They’re feeling the pressure.”

Ukrainian forces trying to punch through Russian lines are facing perhaps their biggest test of the war as, according to two Pentagon officials, Kyiv begins the main thrust of its counteroffensive, pouring the bulk of their Western-trained reserves into the fight to sever Moscow’s hold on the south.

 

The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the campaign. Their comments dovetailed with reports from the battlefield on Wednesday, where artillery battles flared along the southern front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.

And Igor Konashenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry’s chief spokesman, reported a “massive” assault and fierce battles south of Orikhiv, a town that Ukraine holds about 60 miles north of the Sea of Azov. Vladimir Rogov, an official appointed by Moscow in southern Ukraine, said the assault involved Ukrainian troops who had been trained abroad and were equipped with about 100 armored vehicles, including German-made Leopards and American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

Another Russian occupation official in Zaporizhzhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that Ukraine had made 36 attempts to shell settlements in the region since Tuesday. Russian assertions that the Ukrainian attacks had been repelled could not be immediately verified.

The Ukrainians mounted a “massive” assault with three battalions, reinforced with tanks, south of the town of Orikhiv, and then another a few miles farther south near the village of Robotyne, said Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia’s defense ministry, according to Tass, a state news agency. Both were repelled, the ministry said. The area around Orikhiv is one of three main axes of assault.

Other American officials said that the most recent Ukrainian attack might be preparatory operations for the main thrust or reinforcements to replenish war-weary units.

One of Ukraine’s military objectives is to drive south from the current front line through the town of Tokmak to the city Melitopol near the coast. Both are highway and railroad hubs, and driving a wedge that deep would effectively split the Russian-held territory in two, making resupply and coordination more difficult for Moscow’s forces.

The United States and other allies have trained about 63,000 Ukrainian troops, according to the Pentagon, and have supplied more than 150 modern battle tanks, a much larger number of older tanks, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and thousands of other armored vehicles.

American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said on Wednesday that most of those reserves had been committed. All along the southern front on Wednesday, heavy artillery fire was heard as Ukrainian guns fired from hidden positions and the Russian guns responded, hitting positions their troops had recently abandoned.

Local occupation officials reported fierce battles raging south of Orikhiv, involving brigades of foreign-trained troops and armor donated by the United States and Germany.

U.S. officials said on Wednesday that Ukrainian officials had told them that their forces were now engaged in the main thrust of a counteroffensive in the southeast, throwing more troops and equipment at the westernmost of three main fronts, near Zaporizhzhia.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss Ukraine’s war plans, cited three reasons:

• Recent advances: For more than seven weeks, Ukrainian troops have fought along three main fronts across several hundred miles in the country’s east and southeast, pressing to find a weak spot in the heavily dug-in Russian defenses to burst through. They have been making plodding but steady progress clearing a path through dense Russian minefields and other fortifications.

• Russian turmoil: Ukrainian forces sensed an opportunity with the sacking of the regional Russian commander, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, to exploit turmoil in the local Russian leadership. Last month, General Popov addressed his troops in a four-minute recording, accusing his superiors of inflicting a blow on his forces by removing him from his post in retaliation for voicing the truth about battlefield problems to senior leadership behind closed doors.

• Potential Russian vulnerabilities: Ukrainian artillery barrages have been steadily attacking Russian artillery, ammunition depots and command posts in areas well behind the front lines, creating a vulnerability to exploit if advancing Ukrainian forces can punch through the Russian defenses, and cause havoc in the rear. “The Russians are stretched,” a Western official said on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details and intelligence assessments. “They are still experiencing problems with logistics, supply, personnel and weapons. They’re feeling the pressure.”

At the same time, Russia mounted a missile barrage on Wednesday at targets across Ukraine, launching about three dozen cruise missiles and four hypersonic ballistic missiles from aircraft.

“There were a few hits, and some missile fragments fell,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in his nightly address on Wednesday, without providing details.

Mr. Zelensky was vague about the counteroffensive. “Today our guys at the front had very good results,” he said. “More details later.” 

Ukrainian troops along the southern front said in interviews on Wednesday that they were steadily pushing Russian troops back, but their progress had been incremental with no major breakthroughs. They have been slowed by minefields, and some said the biggest obstacles were Russia’s withering artillery fire and airstrikes.

Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.

Their goal is to sever the so-called land bridge between Russian-occupied Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, or at least advance far enough to put the strategically important peninsula within range of Ukrainian artillery. Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and uses it as the base for its Black Sea fleet as well as to supply its forces in the south.

The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington.

“This is the big test,” said one senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.