Ukraine Continues To Advance On Multiple Fronts, Including Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia

Despite determined Russian resistance and an almost complete absence of air support, Ukrainian forces continue to press their advance on multiple fronts, including the key Zaporizhzhia area. 

That the Ukrainians are making headway - having gained more territory in one month than the Russians did in the past year - suggests that Russian defenses may be brittle and subject to breakthrough once a breach is established. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine moved into Bakhmut's hills over the weekend and now they’ve moved beyond, capturing the northern end of Klishchiivka. Control of those hills provides a good artillery position overlooking much of the area south of Bakhmut. Northwest of Bakhmut, Ukraine continues to expand its area of control, a good sign that Russia was having trouble supplying its guns. Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade is just 2.5 kilometers north of Soledar. On the southern front, Ukraine is close to flanking the Russians at Robotyne. Reports of lost Bradleys invariably end with “but the crew got out safely,” which is great, but Robotyne has been the most costly point on the map.

The U.S. has been preparing to send ATACMS to Ukraine, so it’s a good bet that Biden’s thinking it over will translate pretty quickly into missiles on the way.

BAKHMUT AREA

For the past two weeks, Ukrainian forces have been working their way toward the key town of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut. The town itself is important, but not nearly as important as the hills to the west. Control of those hills provides a good artillery position overlooking much of the area south of Bakhmut.

Ukraine had moved into those hills over the weekend and now they’ve moved beyond, capturing the northern end of Klishchiivka and sending more forces down a valley between the two hills. Russia tried to make a counteroffensive into the town on Tuesday but it appears to have been ineffective, with several pieces of Russian hardware lost.

At last reports, Russian forces were clinging to the eastern edge of Klishchiivka after failing to hold back Ukrainian forces moving through most of the town. The Ukrainians are setting up firing positions on the top of those western hills, but it’s unclear at this point if their forces are moving north toward Bakhmut or east to Opytne.

Additional Ukrainian assaults have been noted south of Klishchiivka at Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka. Fighting in this area has included the destruction of at least two Russian T-90 tanks.

Northwest of Bakhmut, Ukraine continues to expand its area of control in Berkhivka and has pressed further into Yahidne. There was at least one report that Ukraine has captured “all” the high ground west of Bakhmut, which would mean they’ve wrested away the hills around Dubovo-Vasylivka. If true, this section of Russian control could collapse quickly.

When Ukraine moved back into Berkhivka at the end of last week and began edging this way, it was a good sign that Russia was having trouble supplying its guns in this area, because those guns had a commanding position and had previously forced Ukraine to pull back from the Berkhivka area.

To the west, there are reports of an assault near Zaliznyanske. Ukraine was pushed out of this area by Wagner forces on March 28. Now they’re back. Fighting along this axis is said to be heavy, with Ukraine having the frustratingly vague “partial success.”

Further north, the village of Sakko i Vantsetti is living up to its anarchic name. It’s reportedly “under siege.” Both that village and Mykolaivka are said to be surrounded by Ukrainian forces while Russians continue to hold their positions inside. This appears to be part of a greater push from the north that has Ukrainian forces moving toward Soledar along three different lines. Russian forces in the area have reportedly moved to Krasnopolivka.

An unconfirmed report has Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade just 2.5 kilometers north of that salt mine in Soledar. Wagner forces took Soledar in the first days of the year. For Ukrainian forces to get back into that town would be a huge reversal of Russia’s assault in the Bakhmut region, and would position Ukraine to either attack Bakhmut from three directions or to surround the city and wait.

East of Bakhmut, Russia has prepared defensive positions similar to those in the south, so it’s unclear where the fight might go from here. But liberating the area in front of those defenses would be a tremendous boost.

RUSSIAN ACTIONS

Even while it’s losing ground around Bakhmut and in the south, Russia continues to deploy more forces into the northern end of the line, from Kreminna up to Kupyansk. One report claims Russia now has over 120,000 men in this area. There is reportedly fighting northeast of Kupyansk, with Russian forces attempting to take the town of Lyman Pershyi. Russia has also successfully moved past Dibrova west of Kreminna and come within a few kilometers of Torske. Reports that Russia reached Torske, or even took the town, are simply wrong.

That puts Russian troops within about 15 km of that other, larger Lyman. However, Russia’s advance looks to be a narrow salient along a single highway rather than any kind of broad movement, and it appears that, for now at least, they were thrown back in front of Torske.

Russia has already reportedly attempted an unsuccessful attack west of Svatove. Russian Telegram sources indicate that Russia’s goal is to “reach the river,” presumably the Oskil River, in three locations: Kupyansk, Borove, and west of Lyman. For now, none of that seems likely.

SOUTHERN FRONT

Russian sources, including Rybar, continue to claim that Ukraine left P’yatykhatky. Ukrainian sources say they don’t know what the hell the Russians are talking about. Russia has shown some videos, but since all of them seem to show fighting that took place between P’yatykhatky and Zherebyanky, none of it is very convincing. In fact, Ukraine appears to have made a slight advance toward Zherebyanky.

Like the “Ukraine is stalled at Bakhmut” message that Russian sources were repeating yesterday, this seems to be just a piece of Russian copium.

There are also reports that Ukraine is close to flanking the Russian locations at Robotyne, though it hasn’t happened without an additional cost, including a reported five to six Bradley fighting vehicles. Reports of those lost Bradleys have almost invariably ended with “but the crew got out safely,” which is great, but Robotyne has probably been the most costly point on the map.