Russia's Ukraine Units Are Under Strength, Exhausted And Not Being Reinforced

Russian military bloggers fear that Ukrainian forces may be on the verge of a breakthrough, because Russian units are under strength, exhausted with no prospect of being reinforced.

This view is consistent with that of Ukrainian officers who believe that wearing down the Russian defenders is beginning to bear fruit.JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Kyiv's forces could break through in their counteroffensive on the southern front (because) Russian defensive lines would not stop Ukrainian troops if there are not enough trained and properly equipped Russian soldiers. "These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy." Russian troop levels were only at 70% of what they ought to be, while in other areas of the most fierce battles "it is significantly less." Russian losses are not being replenished by reinforcements and reservists from the rear.

Military blogger Igor Girkin has delivered another scathing assessment of Russia's battlefield chances in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv's forces could break through in their counteroffensive on the southern front.

The former commander, also known as Strelkov, played a key role in the war in Ukraine's Donbas region from 2014. He has repeatedly condemned Russia's military high command during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which he supports.

In a video post on his Telegram channel tweeted by War Translated, Girkin lamented how in some directions, Russian troop levels were only at 70 percent of what they ought to be, while in other areas of the most fierce battles "it is significantly less."

While he said this was better than troop levels at the end of last summer "when 20 percent staffing of units was considered normal," Russian losses were not being replenished by reinforcements and reservists from the rear.

"If urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia and it will be then very difficult to stop them," Girkin said.

Ukraine has admitted that its progress in the counteroffensive which started on June 6 has been slow. The deep defenses Russia has dug along the 600-mile front line are making it difficult for Kyiv's forces.

However, Girkin believes that even this line would not stop Ukrainian troops if there were not enough trained and properly equipped Russian soldiers.

"If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy," he said, adding that the main question is whether Ukraine's forces can get through Russian defenses within two to three weeks, all the while, "exchanging their soldiers for ours."

Girkin then went on to accuse the head of Russia's command in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, of not adequately preparing and equipping reserves and that transferring troops to the front posed the danger of leaving other areas exposed.

"These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy."

It comes as southern Ukraine faced overnight attacks from Iranian-made Shahed drones and shelling from Russian forces, local authorities said on Saturday.

The attacks took place in the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts overnight. The outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city were attacked by Russian troops, according to the regional governor.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its counteroffensive on at least three sectors of the frontline on Friday, in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. The Ukrainian General Staff said its troops had achieved partial success southwest of Bakhmut in the Donetsk oblast, where fighting has been going on for months.