How the Damage To the Kerch Bridge May Aid Ukraine's Advance

As the counteroffensive continues to grind down the Russian defenders, damage to the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to the rest of occupied Ukraine makes it more difficult for the Russians to supply their troops on the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia fronts. 

This is another part of the concerted effort to reduce Russian troops' ability to defend their lines, which affects both their morale and their ability to fight. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The attack on the bridge comes as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive in the south. Over the weekend, moved into parts of the villages of Staromaiorske and Pryyutne. In addition, Ukraine reportedly moved to the edge of Robotyne. The bridge damage will have a severe effect on Russia’s ability to maintain its forces in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Kherson Oblast. The damage to the bridge will affect Russia’s ability to supply and maintain its forces on the southern front. Most if not all supplies to the areas come in along the coast via the M14 highway and rail lines in that area.

The attack on the bridge comes as Ukraine continues to press its counteroffensive in the south. Over the weekend, Ukraine reportedly moved into parts of the villages of Staromaiorske and Pryyutne. In addition, Ukraine reportedly moved to the edge of Robotyne, with continued heavy fighting in that area.

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At Pryyutne, Ukrainian forces are reportedly moving down the western edge of the town and pressing to the south. At Staromaiorske, Ukrainian forces are in the streets at the northern end of the settlement but have not yet secured the whole town. (Note that on the map, areas east of Urozhaine may not be actively under dispute. It’s just that control over this area, particularly the open fields, is unclear.)

There are reports that some Russian forces have fallen back to Staromlynivka, but take all such reports with a large grain of salt. So far Russian forces have fought to maintain every meter of ground in the south and there’s no evidence of a significant shift in that strategy.

It’s not clear how the damage to the bridge will affect Russia’s ability to supply and maintain its forces on the southern front. It’s likely that most if not all supplies to the areas now being contested come in along the coast via the M14 highway and rail lines in that area. These will not be disrupted by the bridge damage, though they will need to deal with increased traffic.

Russia is instructing civilians heading in and out of Crimea to use the land bridge, rerouting them hundreds of kilometers through the active front lines. For context, the distance of the green line in the image below between Rostov on Don to Djankoi is 635 kilometers.

Land route to Crimea.

The bridge damage will have a more severe effect on Russia’s ability to maintain its forces in Crimea and in the eastern portions of Kherson Oblast. However, right now the only threat to those forces is Ukraine’s small position on the east side of the Dnipro River across from Kherson. Despite an extended effort involving everything from artillery to missiles, Russia has not been able to dislodge this Ukrainian force. However, without bridges across the Dnipro to support movement of heavy equipment, Ukraine has been unable to extend this area more than a short distance from the river.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues in several areas around Bakhmut. To the south of the city, Ukraine is continuing to expand its area of control around Klishchiivka. That includes a push toward Andriivka, which is the next town to the south.

A lot of what’s going on in the area right now appears to be capturing or eliminating isolated groups of Russian soldiers who continue to occupy positions in trenches or buildings. At the same time, Russian artillery continues to hit Ukrainian forces and there are numerous mines and boobytraps, making Ukraine’s advance into these positions a lot more difficult than just driving forward.

However, there are reported advances all along the area south of Bakhmut down to Kurdyumivka where Ukrainian forces have entered the town and are fighting with Russian forces. To the northwest of Bakhmut, fighting continues around the forest and reservoir west of Berkhivka, but the bigger advance might be that moving down on Soledar from the north. Right now details are sketchy and, as with most reports in this area, videos and images are several days old. But Ukraine appears to have made good progress in this area over the weekend.