Why Evidence Is Growing Ukraine's Counteroffensive Might Have Started

There are lots of reports out of Ukraine today of...something...though there is considerable disagreement about what that means. Russia is claiming it repulsed the first counteroffensive attack - though as one source pointed out, anyone who believes that is likely to believe them when they say that Elvis and JFK are still alive. 

Ukraine, as the picture suggests, is urging everyone to keep silent. And there are reports of heightened fighting in numerous places along the 600 mile front line - including inside Russia's Belgorod region. But Ukraine is unlikely to provide more illumination of the situation until the results are clearer. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Something is happening. Neither action in the north in the direction of Novaya Tavolzhanka, nor action in the south is in itself the promised counter-offensive, but in the event of a breakthrough, more significant forces could be transferred to the site. This could be like the localized counteroffensive in Bakhmut’s flanks—territory regained on the initiative of local commanders. Or this could be probing actions, testing out Russia’s defenses and searching for weak spots along the lines. Or it could be a diversion. Which is it? No one knows outside a small group of people in Ukraine.

Everyone is waiting for Ukraine’s spring summer counteroffensive to begin, but none more so than the Russians, who are so jumpy that they claimed a small probing action in Zaporizhzhia oblast was the beginning (and end) of the expected Ukrainian action. Let’s take a look at where things stand. 

First of all, Ukraine is telling people to … shush.

We’ll contrast that quiet confidence with shit-show that is Russia in a moment, but first a word about what silence means in operational security (OpSec). 

It doesn’t mean that people don’t repost video clips, or geolocate them. 

If Russia posts a video, they know that 1) whatever is depicted took place, and 2) where it took place. 

If Ukraine posts a video, it is okay with that video being released. The soldiers and airmen with access to those videos know what the OpSec rules are. And as you’ll often see, if they don’t want the video geolocated, they will blur any background identifying features. They’re quite aware of the game. 

You will see people complain on Twitter, Telegram, or right here at Daily Kos when such videos are posted, misunderstanding the situation. Ukraine doesn’t want the locals posting videos of their troop movements, or pretty much any battlefield information that could endanger the troops. But if it’s on Twitter, where most of us see this stuff, it’s already been seen by millions on Telegram, where the Russians actually hang out. 

---

Getting back to Ukraine’s quiet confidence, let’s contrast that with the chaos of the Russian side. There was so much chaos this weekend. 

Wagner Group mercenaries actually got in a firefight with a Russian army unit, captured its commander, a lieutenant colonel, broke his nose in signs of torture, then filmed him admitting to targeting Wagner out of “personal animosity.”

Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin must be feeling pretty untouchable to not just kidnap and beat a Russian army officer, but to post it online. You can get more on the Wagner-Russian Ministry of Defense feud in this thread by a Ukrainian intelligence officer. As several people joked today (so not my joke), we may be getting to a place where Russia isn’t even the second best Army in Ukraine!

Similarly, Wagner’s feud with pro-Moscow Chechen Kadyrovites is escalating, with a not-so-veiled threat posted on Wagner Telegram accounts. The meme features a picture of bombed out Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, with the caption: “Grozny, Chechnya 2000. We can repeat.”

 

Meanwhile, pro-Ukrainian Russian forces and some Polish foreign legionaries have actually occupied a couple of border settlement on the Russian side of the border in Belgorod. No, they’re not marching on Moscow, and they might’ve retreated back to Ukraine by the time you read this, but they’re certainly making Russian dictator Vladimir Putin look impotent. Russia must either peels troops away from the Ukrainian front lines to stop these border excursions, or the Russian government keeps looking the fool as these marauders romp through the Russian countryside, playing whack-a-mole up and down that long border. This time, they even grabbed a couple of Russian POWs. Kadyrovite leader Ramzan Kadyrov, fresh off promising to send troops to Bakhmut that never arrived, is now offering to secure Russia’s northern border.

To be clear, Kadyrov doesn’t have 70,000 troops. Most estimates are around 10-12,000, of which only around 10% ever deployed to Ukraine. (When deployed, they mostly posted TikTok videos of themselves shooting at traffic lights and random empty buildings.) They certainly aren’t Spetsnaz—Russian special forces. Russia only has 17,000 of those, minus whatever they’ve lost in Ukraine. 

If Kadyrov had 70,000 Spetsnaz, he’d be able to declare independence and there’d be nothing Moscow could do about it. Mostly likely, he saw Prigozhin’s offer to secure the Belgorod border, and he decided he couldn’t be upstaged by his fierce nemesis.

I wish they’d just settle it all on the battlefield—it would be the ultimate expression of Russian toxic masculinity. 

Russia claimed the Ukrainian counteroffensive began today in southern Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia oblast, and they crushed it! It’s over! 

On the morning of June 4, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction by introducing into battle 23 and 31 mechanized brigades from the strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of other military units and subunits.

In total, six mechanized and two tank battalions of the enemy were involved [...]

As a result of the skillful and competent actions of the Eastern Group of Forces, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 250 personnel, 16 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 21 armored fighting vehicles.

Actually, something is happening. Russia even released blurry video of what seems to be 9-10 stalled armored vehicles, including several on fire. It certainly doesn’t show 37 vehicles on fire. The video was geolocated in the direction of Mariupol, 1.2 kms inside the last assumed front lines. just west of Velika Novosilka. Ukraine released its own video claiming to show Ukrainian tanks destroying a Russian one. But honestly, I can’t tell what’s going on in that video. 

Still, Russian Telegram sources admit that Ukraine did manage to liberate settlements in that area, both at Novodarivka, and perhaps even at Neskuchne:

For context, here is where we are on the map, pulled back: 

A Russian commander of the pro-Russian Donetsk militia, Alexander Khodakovsky, claims Ukraine took territory, took losses (as the video linked above would suggest), and—importantly—that this isn’t actually the big counteroffensive.  

On the Velikonovoselkovsky direction, the enemy is making an attempt to break through. Having grouped his shock fist, in the first half of the day he was able to achieve tactical success - he took one position from us, but suffered tangible losses. Now the enemy is building up his presence in the breakthrough sector - obviously, he is striving to increase his achievements.

Neither action in the north in the direction of Novaya Tavolzhanka, nor action in the south is in itself the promised counter-offensive, but in the event of a breakthrough, more significant forces could be transferred to the site.

This could be like the localized counteroffensive in Bakhmut’s flanks—territory regained on the initiative of local commanders. Or this could be probing actions, testing out Russia’s defenses and searching for weak spots along the lines. Or it could be a diversion, the way Ukraine signaled a Kherson offensive last September, when the real target was Kharkiv’s liberation.

Which is it? No one knows outside a small group of people in Ukraine. All we can do is wait. Personally, I won’t believe the counteroffensive has started until we see Leopard main battle tanks on the prowl.