Ukraine Risking New Weapons In Advance As Breakthrough Goal Becomes Clear

The Ukrainians are continuing to attack Russian defenses around Zaporizhzhia, perhaps the most heavily fortified position on the 600 mile front line. 

After losing some equipment at first, they attacked again and broke through. They are taking this risk because this if they can exploit this success, they can cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The most difficult axis for the Ukrainians—along the front line through Tokmak, 20 miles to the south—also could be the most rewarding. If the Ukrainians can break through the trenches around Tokmak and cross the Tokmak River, they might be able to race to Melitopol, a strategic city near the Sea of Azov, (which) would cut overland supply lines to Crimea. (Its) value explains why the Ukrainians have committed some of their heaviest brigades and best new equipment. They lost one tank and many fighting vehicles (but) suffered few casualties. The Ukrainians regrouped, attacked again and found a way through the Russians’ first defensive line.A week into their long-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive, the Ukrainian armed forces are advancing along four axes in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.

“In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defenses,” the U.K. defense ministry noted. “In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower.”

The most difficult axis for the Ukrainians—from Orihiv and Mala Tokmachka along the front line through Tokmak, 20 miles to the south—also could be the most rewarding.

If the Ukrainians can break through the trenches and earthworks around Tokmak and cross the Tokmak River, they might be able to race all the way to Melitopol, a strategic city near the Sea of Azov. Liberating Melitopol would cut the overland supply lines to Crimea, softening the peninsula in advance of a possible Ukrainian effort to eject its Russian occupiers.

Tokmak’s extreme value helps to explain why the Ukrainians have committed some of their heaviest brigades and best new equipment to the axis—and why the Russians are fighting hard to hold the line.

“Tokmak … is a super-important railway junction and logistics hub for the Russians,” explained Mike Martin, a fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College in London. Russian engineers have built extensive fortifications in and around Tokmak. South of the city, however, trenches and earthworks—and minefields, presumably—are much thinner.

A large, well-equipped Russian force garrisons those fortifications. From north to south: the 503rd, 291st, 70th and 429th Motor Rifle Regiments, some reserve formations and a quintet of mercenary battalions. Perhaps 10,000 or more front-line troops and hundreds of armored vehicles.

These troops wait behind dense minefields and pre-sighted artillery kill zones. Russian drones, attack helicopters and fighter-bombers patrol overhead. It should come as no surprise that, when a pair of Ukrainian army brigades—the 33rd Mechanized Brigade and the 47th Assault Brigade—rolled south along the Tokmak axis starting early last week, they got hit hard.

The 33rd Brigade and 47th Brigade—respectively armed with German-made Leopard 2 tanks and American-made M-2 fighting vehicles—got stuck in a minefield outside Mala Tokmachka, at the northern end of the Tokmak axis, on Thursday morning.

After a Leopard 2A6 tank, an IMR-2 mine-clearing vehicle and several M-2s struck mines, a rescue force riding in M-2s rushed in. A dramatic video from the ambush underscores the soundness of the Leopard 2 and M-2 designs. While the 33rd and 47th Brigades lost at least one tank and as many as a dozen fighting vehicles that morning, they seem to have suffered few casualties.

The Ukrainians regrouped and attacked again. On Friday, Russian drones harassed Ukrainian columns south of Mala Tokmacha, indicating the 33rd and 47th Brigades had found a way through or around the Russians’ first defensive line.

The Ukrainian army formed at least nine new 2,000-person brigades for the 2023 counteroffensive and armed them mostly with European and American weaponry. The 33rd and 47th are just two of those nine brigades. The Leopard 2s and M-2s they lost represent around 10 percent of their original strength, and a tiny percentage of the overall strength of the nine-brigade counteroffensive corps.

All that is to say, the Ukrainians still are holding back a lot of firepower. Perhaps waiting to exploit any gaps the 33rd and 47th Brigades force open at the northern end of the T0408 road to Tokmak. “This axis is the obvious main effort, but we haven’t yet seen the main force—so let’s see,” Martin commented.