How Ongoing Ukrainian/Russian Insurgent Cross-Border Attacks Cause Chaos, Weaken Defenses

The cross-border attacks by Ukraine-supported Russian insurgents are creating significant strategic opportunities for Ukraine.

Russia is now facing the reality that its border is undefended. As a result it is having to shuffle forces preparing for the Ukrainian counteroffensive back to fight the insurgents. This means that there are fewer troops along the occupied line of defense, and, given the need to move troops and equipment through a few logistical hubs, why long range rocket strikes are targeting those centers behind Russian lines, damaging both counteroffensive defensive preparations as well as additional troops in transit. This is both opportunistic, adaptive - and strategic genius. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Russian Volunteer Corps/Freedom of Russia Legion operation on Russian territory (is) drawing more Russian forces to the Belgorod region (as) it continues. Belgorod (is) becoming a grey zone – people have abandoned houses, regional administration and police are no longer functioning, thieves are looting. Russian police and border guards turned out to be incapable of protecting the border, which is why Russians are resorting to shelling, wiping out their own towns because they are unable to push insurgents out of Russian territory. Russia conducted air and artillery strikes and deployed a motorized rifle battalion. This means Russian defense in Ukraine is becoming weaker, but also that logistical hubs are now full of military personnel and equipment that Ukrainians can destroy while they are still in transit.

On 3 June, the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps stated they continue conducting a special operation on the Russian territory, successfully drawing even more Russian forces to the Belgorod region. Judging by the latest geolocated footage, the fighting in and around Tavolzhanka and Shebekino continues.

The headquarters commander of the insurgent forces claimed that Russian forces no longer had full control over these towns. He said that the Belgorod People’s Republic gradually becomes a grey zone – people have abandoned their houses, regional administration and police are no longer functioning, while thieves and raiders are busy looting their neighbors.

Interestingly, Shebekino, Tavolzhanka, and other settlements in the region together had approximately the same population as Bakhmut, and several reinforced companies had already managed to develop a significant presence. The Commander of the Freedom of Russia Legion reported that irregular Russian forces, such as police and border guards, turned out to be completely incapable of protecting the border, which is why Russians are primarily resorting to shelling. Given that the insurgent forces maintain a presence in Russian settlements, Russian forces are wiping out their own towns and villages because they are unable to push insurgents behind the border and keep them out of Russian territory.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that they relocated additional elements of the regular Russian army and conducted heavy air, artillery, and flamethrower strikes. The Ministry also mentioned the deployment of a whole motorized rifle battalion. Local residents confirmed these claims and posted footage of various reinforcements entering the region. As we can see, Russian forces continue relocating thousands of troops and heavy equipment to the Belgorod region.

And this is extremely good news for Ukrainians. Not only does it mean that Russian defense in Ukraine is becoming weaker, but it also means that logistical hubs are now full of military personnel and equipment that Ukrainians can destroy while they are still in transit.

And this is exactly what Ukrainians are doing. During these three days of special operations in the Belgorod region, Ukrainians conducted more than 100 precision strikes, specifically on the areas of forces concentrations.

One of the biggest June 3 strikes happened in Berdiansk. The footage shows the aftermath of the Russian air defense work and indicates that Ukrainians used up to 10 missiles. Other footage confirms that some Ukrainian missiles managed to reach their targets.

On 2 June, Ukrainians struck Berdiansk with around six missiles. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian used Strom Shadow missiles. Satellite footage clearly shows the complete annihilation of two huge warehouses in the harbor and also the significant destruction of the Azovkabel factory. Several sections of the factory were completely demolished.

On 3 June, local residents also reported hearing at least five huge explosions near Melitopol. Later, it was reported that Ukrainians targeted Russian logistics and destroyed some facilities near the railway.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted the eastern outskirts of Alchevsk with four HIMARS rockets. Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike on unspecified factories in Donetsk.

Overall, the activity of the Ukrainian Air Force and precision artillery reaches all-time heights. And this is not surprising because Russians decided to make a great migration, which turned out to be a huge mistake. First of all, Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, DNR forces are being relocated from Marinka to Bakhmut to substitute Wagner. In contrast, Akhmat forces are being deployed to Marinka to substitute DPR units. Secondly, in anticipation of the counteroffensive operation, Russians are replacing old and worn tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and air defense in the Zaporizhzhia region. And thirdly, Russians are reinforcing the Belgorod region with Motorized Rifle elements. This means the railways are working at full capacity, and logistical hubs are full of targets.

That is why Ukrainians conduct hundreds of strikes along the whole contact line.