Dam Busting Consequences For Ukraine and Russia

Much of the 'horse race' analysis of the Nova Khakovka dam demolition - who benefits, who loses - has focused on implications for the counteroffensive. And it can cut both ways, though reports of drowning Russian soldiers, flooded defensive works and the probability that Ukraine had already factored this possibility into its calculations into its planning suggest they were not the culprit.

But evaluations in the last day reveal that the dam's destruction will reduce Crimea's water supply by as much as 85%, indicating that the decision to blow was an indication that the Russians dont highly rate their own chances of holding occupied Ukraine. JL   

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Prior to the war, the North Crimean Canal provided 85% of Crimea’s water. The need for gravity means that the canal’s water intake isn’t being pumped from the bottom of the reservoir, but skimmed off the top. The disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir is the end of the canal. By the end of the year, Ukraine could have the Crimean peninsula completely isolated. (And) if Mariupol is liberated, Ukraine would have complete fire control over Russian shipping in the Azov Sea, shutting down the key Russian logistical hub at Rostov-on-Don. Ukraine may not even need to invade Crimea to liberate it. It could pull another Kherson, making it logistically impossible for Russia to hold.

Prior to the war (the original start date, 2014), the North Crimean Canal provided 85% of Crimea’s water. After Russia’s invasion of the peninsula, Ukraine dammed the canal, forcing Russia to truck water in over the Kerch bridge, attempt expensive desalination, and unsuccessfully try to drill for groundwater. Russia even sued Ukraine at the European Court of Human Rights, where the effort went nowhere (there wasn’t any international conflict since the vast majority of countries still recognized Crimea as Ukraine).

During the early days of the February 2022 invasion, Russia prioritized restoring that water supply. Doing so is among Russia’s very short list of successes.

The problem is, the North Crimean Canal uses gravity to move the water from the canal’s mouth at Tavriisk to Dzhankoi around 200 kilometers away, where pumps there help keep things moving.

The need for gravity means that the canal’s water intake isn’t being pumped from the bottom of the reservoir, but skimmed off the top. The disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir is the end of the canal.

Russian state media agency TASS reported on a local government and its “What me, worry?” statement.

There is no threat of the North Crimean Canal which delivers water to Crimea from the Kherson Region draining after the collapse of the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), the local municipal administration [of Genichesk] said on its Telegram channel on Tuesday.
 

"There is no threat of the North Crimean Canal losing water (Crimea residents got worried)," its statement said, adding that the flooded residential areas have no power or water while local residents left on their own. It is specified that water will recede in a couple of days.

This isn’t exactly wrong. The canal traditionally worked seasonally, with water flowing from March to December. This allowed all of Crimea’s reservoirs to fill, with the canal itself holding extra water. Given that everything was topped off in February, Crimea is certainly okay for the time being.

Yet the Kremlin knows the deal. “A gaping hole punched in Ukraine's Nova Kakhovka dam that unleashed a wall of floodwater means that the canal which has traditionally met most of Crimea's water needs is receiving drastically less water, the Kremlin warned on Tuesday,” reported Reuters. The Russian government noted that the peninsula’s reservoirs were at 80%, plus the water in the canal itself added considerable supply, limiting the short-term pain. But that water won’t last forever.

And therein lies Russia’s existential problem. Check out this scenario:

• North Crimean Canal out of commission: check.

• Ukraine cuts Russia’s land bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea: In progress.

• Ukraine destroys the Kerch bridge: On the to-do list.

By the end of the year, Ukraine could very well have the Crimean peninsula completely isolated. Check out the map:

If Mariupol is liberated, Ukraine would have complete fire control over Russian shipping in the Azov Sea, shutting down the key Russian logistical hub at Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s 15th largest port in its vast country. Remember those Harpoon anti-ship missiles Ukraine got early in the war in order to thwart an amphibious landing on Odesa? Those would suddenly come in handy once again.

Russia has three other ports further south on the Black Sea which could presumably supply Crimea, but they would need to unload at Sevastopol, putting them in range of Ukrainian F-16s and F-18s (likely coming from Australia) with Harpoon and other anti-ship missiles prowling the skies just off their coast. And those anti-ship drones Ukraine has been launching at Russian warships would feast on defenseless civilian cargo ships.

The cost to supply Crimea with the most basic of basics—water and food—would prove prohibitively high, nevermind any other necessary supplies. And if Russia can’t provide, their hold on the peninsula comes to an end and they likely have to sue for peace.

Quite simply, Ukraine may not even need to invade Crimea to liberate it. It could pull another Kherson, making it logistically impossible for Russia to hold.

Given all that, does anyone really think Russia blew the dam on purpose? We know they are f’n stupid, but they can’t possibly be that stupid, can they?

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Today, Ukraine claimed the following Russian losses:

• 880 men

• 13 tanks

• 17 APVs

• 37 (!) artillery pieces

• 4 MLRS

Those are insanely high numbers, and support the growing consensus that yup, the counteroffensive is on the way. Ukraine is being appropriately tight-lipped, but American administration officials are already expressing delight at Ukrainian advances. “Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front,” wrote David Ignatius in The Washington Post. “That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.”

Five to 10 kilometers in a couple of days is stunning progress against Russian defenses, particularly since we haven’t yet seen the emergence of Ukrainian’s new “storm brigades” kitted out with Western gear. If (and I stress, if) Ukraine is notching these kinds of gains from their probing attacks, then Russia is in even more trouble than expected.

Strelkov is war criminal Igor Girkin’s war alias. If he’s right that Ukraine is advancing on Optyne, well then, holy shit.

Opytne and neighboring Vodyane are Russian-occupied suburbs of the regional capital city of Donetsk, just south of Avdiivka, which has been under siege by Russia since 2014. The invaders made a big show of pushing hard on Avdiivka when it launched its winter offensive, but somehow its Ukrainian defenders held fast. It’s certainly one of the under-told stories of this war.

I’ve written about Donetsk being an attractive counteroffensive direction, and breaking defensive lines to the city’s west could certainly be part of any such effort. Girking specifically mentions Opytne, so why am I also pointing to Vodyane? Ukraine’s July 7 morning update lists it as a location of Russian shelling. And Russia generally doesn’t shell itself.