Why Russia's Kremlin Attack Claims Reflect Fear Of Ukraine Offensive

Russia's claim that Ukraine attacked the Kremlin with a drone comes as reports grow of Ukraine's military build-up. 

Russia is trying to rally support at home, raise concerns in Europe - and distract from its repeated failures. But this effort may reinforce perceptions of Russian weakness rather than counter them. JL 

Marc Santora reports in the New York Times:

The Russian claim that Ukraine targeted the Kremlin with attack drones comes with Ukraine readying tens of thousands of soldiers and stepping up strikes aimed at weakening Russian forces before an expected counteroffensive. Moscow has used misinformation and lies to justify its invasion, rally support at home and cover up its shortcomings during the conflict. Now, Moscow is also trying to undermine Western support for Kyiv by raising the specter of escalation - something Russia has previously done when suffering military failures. “Russia is fearful of Ukraine's offensive and is trying to seize the initiative.”

The Russian claim that Ukraine targeted the Kremlin with attack drones comes at a pivotal moment in the war, with Ukraine readying tens of thousands of soldiers and stepping up strikes aimed at weakening Russian forces before an expected counteroffensive.

Ukrainian officials denied Russia’s claim, with one senior official warning that it was an attempt by the Kremlin to set the stage for “a large-scale terrorist provocation in the coming days.”

“Russia is extremely fearful of Ukraine launching an offensive and is trying to seize the initiative,” said the official, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukrainian officials emphasize that Moscow has often used misinformation and lies to justify its invasion, rally support at home and cover up its shortcomings during the 14-month-old conflict — which it launched based on the false claim that the Ukrainian government was run by Nazis.

As another example, when Russian forces were forced to withdraw from parts of the southern Kherson region in the fall, Moscow sought to frame its military failure as a “gesture of good will.”

While Moscow’s monthslong effort to advance in eastern Ukraine has gained little ground, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian targets in recent days. It has claimed responsibility for attacks on Russian supply lines, oil depots, ammunition dumps, command centers and concentrations of soldiers across occupied parts of Ukraine, including in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

It was too soon to assess the impact of the recent strikes on Russia’s combat capabilities, which have been severely degraded after more than a year of combat and heavy losses. But a similar campaign last year helped pave the way for successful Ukrainian counterattacks.

Ahead of the looming counteroffensive, there has also been an uptick in explosions at military-related sites inside Russia itself, with local Russian officials quick to blame Ukraine. Kyiv has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity on attacks in Russia, often celebrating them while not taking direct responsibility.

Now, Ukrainian officials say, Moscow is also trying to undermine Western support for Kyiv by raising the specter of escalation — something Russia has previously done when suffering military failures.

Even though Ukraine denied involvement in any attack on the Kremlin, some inside Russia were already calling for an intensification of violence. In a social media post, Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, said on Wednesday: “We will demand the use of weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime.”