Why Russia's Defense of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Appears Herculean

To hold an 800 km front against an Ukrainian offensive led by armored forces - according to NATO and Russian doctrine - Russia will need about 1.44 million troops armed with hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, etc spread across the front. But Ukraine will concentrate its attack at just one point.

Russia may currently have around 20% of the troops and equipment that analysis suggests it needs. JL 

Thomas Theiner reports in Twitter:

How many troops and how much equipment is needed to hold a defensive line: estimates from NATO about holding 30km against mechanized & tank divisions: A first trench line to slow down the attack: around 300 troops per km or 9,000 in total. Behind this: 600 main battle tanks, 900 infantry fighting vehicles, and 22,000 troops in two lines for a mobile defense. The Russians are holding about 800km of front in Ukraine. And Ukraine is about to commit 6-8 mechanized divisions to strike at just one point. To be able to defeat the Ukrainian offensive before a breakthrough the Russians would need 54,000 troops per 30km of front. For the entire 800 km of front in Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.How many troops and how much equipment is needed to hold a defensive line in a peer-level conflict: estimates from a NATO member's handbook about holding 30km of front against mechanized & tank divisions: A first trench line to slow down the attack: around 300 troops per km or 9,000 troops in total. Behind this trench: 600 main battle tanks, 900 infantry fighting vehicles, and 22,000 troops in two lines for a mobile defense. Those 31,000 troops have: • 180 Spike ATGM launchers • 900 Panzerfaust 3 launchers • 240+ 81/120mm mortars.

 

At least 240+ 155m howitzers, and 2x medium range and 3x short range air defense battalions to back these troops up. In total 54,000 troops should be deployed to hold 30km of front, with an additional 36,000 troops as maneuver reserve if the enemy should be able to break out. That maneuver reserve needs to have 400 main battle tanks, 600 infantry fighting vehicles, 180 155mm howitzers. In total 90,000 troops are needed to defend a front of 30km against a peer level enemy, which commits 8 to 10 tank and motor rifle divisions for a major offensive.

 

The russians are holding about 800km of front in Ukraine. And Ukraine is about to commit the equivalent of 6-8 mechanized divisions to strike at just one point of that line and the russians don't know where. To be able to defeat the Ukrainian offensive before a breakthrough the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops. But let us just focus on the frontline from the Dnipro river to Donetsk city, as Ukraine is most likely to attack in this sector: a roughly estimated 300km of front... which would require russia to deploy 540,000 troops to defend it. And this does not include a maneuver reserve. How many troops does russia actually have in the South? An estimated 90,000 or about 300 men per km of front, which equals what the NATO country's military assumes is needed to just man a first trench line. Supposedly russia has something between 300,000 to 360,000 troops in Ukraine (I believe it's less than that) & even if the russians commit most of their units to likely attack points they don't have enough forces to stop a Ukrainian attack: neither in men, nor in materiel. The key for Ukraine is to keep its point of attack secret until the last moment. Once committed Ukrainian forces will break through the thinly manned russian lines and whatever maneuver reserve the russians can muster in that area will find itself under incessant artillery and GMLRS fire while trying to move into position for a counterattack. The same will happen to whatever forces russia will pull out of the front elsewhere and try to move towards the Ukrainian spearheads. russia doesn't have the forces to defend the front it is trying to hold; and russia doesn't have the transport capabilities nor the air defense assets to move its few reserve forces to meet a Ukrainian breakthrough. Furthemore Ukrainian deception, feints, and diversionary attacks will make sure that russia will have its reserve forces far away from the actual point of attack. putin will throw everything he has at the Ukrainian offensive and it will be a bloody and brutal battle, but also a battle, which russia can't win. They burned away the men and materiel to withstand a Ukrainian offensive in their futile attempts to take Bakhmut. Last but not least: right now russia has an estimated 10,000 troops in Northern Crimea: 5 per km front.