Why Russia Continues To Commit Its Best Troops To Bakhmut Fighting

There is no logical military reason why Russian continues to commit airborne, special forces and motorized rifle units to Bakhmut at this point. 

The purpose seems to be both to deny Ukraine a clearcut victory and, due to internal political competition, the army wanting to demonstrate that it can do what Wagner could not. That these troops are being sacrificed now rather than kept as a mobile reserve to defend against the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive suggests that Russia's military leadership continues to regard itself as invulnerable - which is good news for Ukraine. JL

Francis Farrell and colleagues report in the Kyiv Independent:

The neverending battle for Bakhmut can now be understood almost as two separate battles, those on the flanks and that inside the city. In addition to Wagner Group mercenaries, Russia is sending airborne and motorized rifle units to Bakhmut. Capturing Bakhmut remains a top priority for Russia’s military, (as) Moscow wants “some kind of trophy” for its efforts. Over the past 24 hours, Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 17 skirmishes near Bakhmut, during which 92 Russian troops were killed and 156 were wounded. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian defensive positions 414 times.

The neverending battle for Bakhmut can now be understood almost as two separate battles, those on the flanks and that inside the city.

Ukraine’s counterattacks have pushed Russian forces back from the two main “Roads of Life” into Bakhmut, which, in theory, makes Ukraine’s famed “fortress” city easier and safer to reinforce and resupply.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, over five months since Wagner fighters first entered Bakhmut’s urban area, there is barely anything left of the fortress.

As of May 18, Russia controls over 95% of Bakhmut, with the latest open-source maps showing Ukrainian forces holding on only to a handful of streets and apartment buildings on the western outskirts of the city.

In almost daily updates, Prigozhin has begun to measure Wagner’s daily advances in streets and square meters, testifying to the slow progress made by the much-depleted mercenary force.

On May 17, Russian sources claimed that Wagner had taken the entirety of a neighborhood dubbed the “Nest,” where Ukraine had allegedly concentrated a large number of defending units.

In addition to Wagner Group mercenaries, Russia is sending airborne and motorized rifle units to Bakhmut, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Operational Command, reported on May 20.

According to Cherevatyi, capturing Bakhmut remains a top priority for Russia’s military, noting that Moscow wants “some kind of trophy” for its efforts.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly engaged in 17 skirmishes near Bakhmut, during which 92 Russian troops were killed and 156 were wounded.

Cherevatyi added that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian defensive positions 414 times.

 

Earlier on May 20, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported that the Russian military has likely redeployed several battalions to the Bakhmut sector.

Following Ukrainian successes at Bakhmut’s flanks and growing concerns about the Wagner mercenary group’s reliability, Russia probably seeks to claim at least some level of success in the war, the ministry said.

This move reportedly represents a serious commitment since Russia retains only a few uncommitted units in Ukraine.

The battle of Bakhmut has been ongoing since August 2022 and has been described as one of the largest and heaviest engagements in the war.

The Battle of Bakhmut, by now likely the bloodiest single military engagement of the 21st century, looks to have finally entered its twilight.

As costly as the defense has been, with Ukraine reportedly suffering high casualties, the initially controversial choice of the Ukrainian command to hold the city for as long as possible seems to have paid off.

According to U.S. estimates as of early May, Russia is believed to have suffered at least 100,000 casualties over five months since its assault on Bakhmut gained intensity in late autumn. This rough figure amounts to half of Ukraine’s own estimates of Russia’s total personnel losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Though the roads into the city were for months under constant fire from Russian forces less than a kilometer away in some areas, Ukraine did manage to keep its defense of the city stable, and the fear of a disastrous encirclement proved unfounded.

In tense urban fighting where almost every street and building was contested, Ukraine successfully carried out a holding operation that will likely be remembered as one of the most decisive engagements of the war.

 

In a battle like that for Bakhmut, for part of the attacking force to continue its relentless urban assault while, just a few kilometers away, other units chaotically flee their positions is an unusual phenomenon.

In this case though, latest developments are likely to be closely connected to the boiling feud between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry.

While reporting Wagner’s gains inside Bakhmut, Prigozhin consistently goes out of his way in his daily updates to mention Russian retreats on the flanks, which Wagner “handed over” to the ministry back in mid-April.

In competition with the regular army for favor and resources from the Kremlin, Prigozhin has become increasingly desperate to portray the ministry as incompetent and even traitorous.

Prigozhin’s main asset is his fighting force, which has been severely attrited over months of heavy fighting, often in human wave-style front-on attacks.

Things came to a head on May 5, when Prigozhin recorded an expletive-laden video blaming Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff Head Valerii Gerasimov for the death of his fighters due to a lack of munitions supply.

In another video message the next day, Prigozhin threatened to pull Wagner forces out of Bakhmut if his demands weren’t met, a threat the mercenary boss later backed down on.