Strategic Implications of US-NATO Providing Ukraine F-16 Pilot Training

If they're providing the training, they're going to provide the planes. 

And the F-16 is not just a fighter jet, it's a 'weapons platform' capable of accurately delivering a variety of missiles and rockets at very specific targets, in addition to its ability to evade enemy anti-air defenses. Strategically, this means Russia is unlikely to be able to regain air superiority in Ukraine. Maybe ever. JL 

Ken Thomas and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

President Biden told his G-7 counterparts Friday that the U.S. would support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Western jet fighters, including American F-16s. Biden’s pledge signaled that Ukraine would receive the jet fighters. deployment of F-16s would enable Ukraine to launch new types of Western air-to-ground and antiship missiles at Russian targets in occupied Ukraine. More sophisticated jets could also improve Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian cruise missiles and drones.The training will take place outside of Ukraine in Europe, and is to begin within the next few weeks. 30 nations have the U.S.-made F-16s.

President Biden told his G-7 counterparts Friday that the U.S. would support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Western jet fighters, including American F-16s, while Kyiv’s allies weigh whether to provide the planes, the White House said.

Biden’s pledge of support at the Group of Seven Summit in Japan signaled that Ukraine would eventually receive the jet fighters, and comes as Russia continues its recent effort to deplete Ukraine’s air defenses ahead of the country’s planned offensive against Russia’s occupation forces. It is unclear which countries would provide Ukraine with the jet fighters. Roughly 30 nations have the U.S.-made F-16s.

The training will take place outside of Ukraine in Europe, and is to begin within the next few weeks. “As the training unfolds in the coming months, we will work with our allies to determine when planes will be delivered, who will be delivering them and how many,” said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

 

In Japan, Biden and U.S. allies said they would further wall off Russia from global trade and offered support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who is set to join them Sunday for a show of solidarity.

Meeting here for their annual summit, leaders of the G-7 nations said they would clamp down on Russian sources of revenue including limiting the country’s diamond industry.

“We salute the Ukrainian people for their brave resistance,” said a joint statement from the leaders of the U.S., Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom, Italy, France and Germany. “Our support for Ukraine will not waver.”

As the leaders met Friday, the summit’s first full day, news broke that Zelensky planned to travel to Hiroshima for Sunday’s session, to push for more weapons ahead of the expected offensive. Using missiles, artillery, armored vehicles, armed drones, and more, Ukraine hopes to push Russian forces out of territory captured in the east and south of the country.

The Ukrainian president’s expected appearance in Hiroshima, the site of the first U.S. atomic bombing in 1945, would be steeped in symbolism after Russian President Vladimir Putin last year raised the threat of a nuclear response in the conflict in Ukraine.

Zelensky recently toured European capitals and secured further pledges of support. The U.K. said it would give hundreds of long-range attack drones, among other weapons. Germany committed a further $3 billion in military aid, and France pledged to deliver more armored vehicles and light tanks.

But Ukraine has said it would need even more than those promised weapons if its expected counteroffensive this year is to succeed. Russian forces have built deep fortifications along the 900-mile front line in Ukraine’s east and south.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked Western allies to provide jet fighters, including F-16s, to help it repel Russian forces, and the U.S. has repeatedly played down that prospect. A debate over whether to send battle tanks to Ukraine lasted months before the U.S. and Germany approved their plans earlier this year to send them. Until now, the U.S. has said that providing Ukraine with F-16s would be too costly and require extensive training.

Ukraine has argued that it needs F-16s to deter Russian aircraft from operating in Ukraine’s skies. Ukraine’s air defenses, which rely mostly on Soviet-era S-300 batteries, are running out of missiles, a gap that could soon allow Russia’s air force to achieve air superiority in much of Ukraine, according to leaked classified U.S. military assessments.

Ukraine’s own fleet of Soviet-vintage aircraft such as Mig-29s is no match for the more sophisticated Russian jet fighters and bombers. Ukrainian jets usually are unable to fly at high altitudes because of their vulnerability to Russian air-defense missiles.

The deployment of F-16s would also enable Ukraine to launch new types of Western air-to-ground and antiship missiles at Russian targets in occupied Ukraine. More sophisticated jets could also improve Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian cruise missiles and drones. The new curbs on Russia’s economy agreed upon Friday by the G-7 leaders seek to crimp industries critical to the Kremlin’s military. After implementing waves of sanctions on Russia, allies are now turning to plugging gaps in those restrictions.