Russia Evacuates Zaporizhzhia Civilians, As Bakhmut, Adviivka Hold

Russian forces are beginning to evacuate civilians from occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia - a potential locus of Ukrainian attack - in fear that they would help Ukrainian forces identify Russian positions and troop movements.  

Ukraine continues to hold in Bakhmut and Adviivka, as Russia reduces offensive operations due to fears of the counteroffensive and shortages of munitions. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Despite the repeated use incendiary weapons, heavy artillery fire into Ukrainian positions, and a reported three dozen attacks in the area, it’s not clear that Russia has taken a single block of Bakhmut in the last 24-48 hours. It’s starting to look like a disappointing Victory Day for Putin. In Adviivka, Ukrainian forces have expanded their area of control, overrunning a portion of Russia’s defensive lines. That means Ukraine now reportedly controls areas it hasn’t held since 2014. Russia has begun evacuating civilians from towns in Zaporizhzhia. This is apparently being done in anticipation of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, (as) Russia fears locals would help identify Russian positions. Despite the repeated use incendiary weapons, heavy artillery fire into Ukrainian positions, and a reported three dozen attacks in the area, it’s not clear that Russia has taken a single block of Bakhmut in the last 24-48 hours. It’s starting to look like a disappointing Victory Day for Putin.

The line between what is and what is not allowed when it comes to incendiary weapons and international law is almost completely arbitrary. Whether it's “closely regulated” white phosphorus, or the use-it-by-the-ton thermite, both burn at over 2,200° C, enough to set fire to even a slightly flammable structure and make even the smallest contact with flesh into a serious, long-term injury.

Throughout this conflict, Russia has bombarded cities across Ukraine with munitions that were clearly intended to spark fires, but most of them were barely on the acceptable side of that poorly-drawn line. But on Friday, multiple reports from Bakhmut indicated that Wagner Group forces, in the midst of Prigozhin’s complaints about an ammunition shortage, have broken out MLRS to bombard the city with incendiary bombs that may be way over the line, creating localized infernos.

According to the Ukrainian general staff, Russia launched around fifty attacks on Ukrainian positions on Friday, with the majority of those attacks happening in and around Bakhmut. That doesn’t seem like the actions of a force that is either exhausted or preparing to hand off control.

There remains the possibility that all of this is just theater designed to distract from the fact that Russia continues to engage in the same tactics on the ground that it has employed for nine grinding months. But probably not. None of these guys is that good an actor.

AVDIIVKA

The level of fighting at Avdiivka, just northwest of Donetsk, has been second only to Bakhmut over the last several months. However, unlike Bakhmut where it seems that Russia has made a slow but inexorable advance, Avdiivka has held out right on the border of occupied territory since the invasion began.

Avdiivka Area. Open image in another tab to enlarge. 

In the last week, Ukrainian forces have reportedly expanded their area of control, bringing them next to the H20 highway and actually overrunning a portion of Russia’s defensive lines. That means Ukraine now reportedly controls areas it hasn’t held since they were lost in 2014.This progress makes the idea that Ukraine might throw some or all of their counteroffensive in this direction seem a bit more possible. However, Russia has spent a lot of time in the last months worrying about that possibility, and some Ukrainian Telegraph sources claim Russia has rushed reinforcements into a previously undermanned Donetsk city. Even if Ukraine doesn’t direct their forces through Avdiivka, this would work exceedingly well as a feint—any troops sent to garrison Donetsk means the other potential avenues of counterattack have been thinned out. Russia may be finding itself in an unwinnable game of Whac-A-Mole.

RUSSIA REPORTEDLY EVACUATING “BORDER TOWNS” IN ZAPORIZHZHIA

Multiple sources on Telegram and Twitter are reporting that Russia has begun evacuating civilians from towns along the northern edge of their area of occupation in Zaporizhzhia. This is apparently being done in anticipation of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, with some sources indicating Russia fears that locals would help Ukrainian forces to identify Russian positions. 

Southern front in Ukraine showing the location of some towns reported evacuated. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

Included in the evacuations are larger towns such as Vasylivka and Polohy as well as a number of smaller towns and villages along the same stretch of the front line. However, this one in particular comes as a surprise.

Tokmak is located better than 20 km from the current front lines and Russia has been working for months to surround this strategic location with a network of defensive lines. Kos has talked about why a move on Tokmak might be one of the most decisive directions for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. So has community member RO37 in his post on why Tokmak could be key to breaking through Russian occupied territory in the south.

Tokmak’s importance, as is so often the case, lies in logistics, logistics, and logistics.

Tokmak represents both the best way to sever Russian lines of communication in the area, and to guard further Ukrainian advances from a potential attack in their rear. Right now, it seems like Russia is bracing for a blow in exactly this location.

Meanwhile, pro-Russian milbloggers are pointing to Tokmak as a sign that Russia is prepared and that any attempt by Ukraine to advance in the area will be a “debacle.” They’re preparing to celebrate “burning Bradleys and Leopards” as Russia turns the Ukrainian counteroffensive away.

Unfortunately, they don’t seem to be taking bets.