So the Russians have belatedly started to reinforce Wagner with Russian soldiers and from another private military company (PMC) - this one - dont laugh - controlled by Gazprom, the Russian energy company. But their first appearance together on the battlefield led to a wholesale slaughter, followed by a rout, all of which added up to the largest Ukrainian gains in that sector in months. Not a good look for what's left of the Russian military. JL
Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:
In Bakhmut, the Russian army, Wagner Group mercenaries, and another private army were all reportedly in retreat. Wagner had already left positions that it held in the city, turning them over to the 72nd brigade of the Russian army and to Gazprom’s mercenary force. According to Prigozhin, both groups immediately turned and ran, surrendering “three square kilometers” of Bakhmut. Prigozhin went on to threaten to abandon more positions after claiming Wagner received only 10% of the artillery that was promised earlier this week. Both Putin’s underperforming parade and Prigozhin’s see-saw rants all point to the same thing: Russia is running low on equipment and material to carry on the conflict.In Bakhmut, the Russian army, Wagner Group mercenaries, and another private army were all reportedly in retreat from areas of the city thousands of Russians had died to capture.
Putin’s brief speech in front of this diminished military included the statement that “A real war has again been unleashed against our homeland,” as well as claims that Ukraine was being held hostage to "Western globalist elites" spreading Russophobia. Even so, Putin declared that Russia would win out because of “greatness.”
While Putin was giving a largely downbeat speech in front of his shrunken military, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was giving a speech that absolutely was not about “victory.”
As with anything Prigozhin says, this speech should be taken with whole buckets of salt. However, what he’s saying here is that Wagner has already left positions that it held in the city, turning them over to the 72nd brigade of the Russian army and to Gazprom’s mercenary force. According to Prigozhin, both of these groups immediately turned and ran, surrendering “three square kilometers” of Bakhmut. Prigozhin went on to threaten to abandon more positions after claiming that Wagner received only 10% of the artillery that was promised earlier this week (which is a reversal of Prigozhin’s last statement).
From other sources:
On Monday, Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out a counteroffensive in the area around Bakhmut, liberating a square kilometer of area, possibly around the O0506 road through Khromove.
On Tuesday, Russian sources report that Ukrainian artillery hit Russian supply lines on the M03 highway from multiple directions, forcing Russia to reroute materiel coming into Bakhmut.
Members of the Azov brigade are claiming that they have retaken large areas in the city within hours.” (Note: this advance, assuming it is separate from the other reported advance on Monday, is not confirmed through the Ukrainian military)
As for what’s really happening with Wagner … who knows? Within 24 hours, Prigozhin first announced the withdrawal of his Wagner militia from Bakhmut, then reversed course after saying he had received ammunition, then claimed he had not received ammunition and claimed that Russian army units and Gazprom fighters were running, and most recently said he has started to receive artillery after all.
Is Wagner staying? Is Wagner going? Is there any reason the Russian military allows Prigozhin to stay near the battlefield while making such derogatory statements about Russian forces? Who knows?
Tankie accounts in social media have now moved to “Bakhmut served its purposes of grinding down the Ukrainian army,” and have gone from praising Wagner to dismissing it as a “ragtag group of prisoners” that was never part of the Russian military in the first place. So there. Russia didn’t lose anyone at Bakhmut, because Wagner doesn’t count. There have also been a lot of restatements of Russia’s losses in World War II with the suggestion that what’s happening in Ukraine is just a flesh wound.
COUNTEROFFENSIVE WATCH
We don’t know when. We don’t know where. But we know that Ukraine intends to launch a significant counteroffensive against Russian positions with the aim of liberating significant areas of Ukraine.
As kos wrote on Monday, several military and political leaders have offered the same advice to Ukraine: Don’t rush. With more and more Western assistance pouring into Ukraine, nine to twelve brigades of Ukrainian troops still in training away from the battlefield, and a massive chain of logistics to work out in order to incorporate dozens of new weapons and vehicles, the longer Ukraine can wait in moving, the better.
Yes, Russia has used the time since the Kharkiv counteroffensive ended last fall to create a network of defensive lines in many areas of Ukraine, but it’s not clear that any more time will make these defenses more formidable. What is clear is that the Russian military is imploding. Both Putin’s underperforming parade and Prigozhin’s see-saw rants all point to the same thing: Russia is running low on equipment and material to carry on the conflict.
As those shortages become more dire, the fault lines that already existed in the Russian military become more obvious. The deliberately weakened command structure, the logistics operations that haven’t been updated since that single parade T-34 was new, the willingness to hand important aspects of the military off to private forces fighting for various oligarchs … the Russian military begins to look more like the army that brought down the Soviet Union. Like the Mujahideen. Like a collection of loosely-bonded warlords roughly coordinating toward similar goals, while always keeping their own personal endgames in mind.
Only a few weeks ago, it seemed that Bakhmut’s loss was inevitable. So much so that on April 15 I wrote an entire article fretting over how Russia’s occupation of the city was proceeding rapidly and worrying that it would put Ukraine in a position of defending the area around Kramatorsk before their new equipment and newly-trained forces were prepared. A fast moment through Bakhmut, even then, might have put Russia in a position to drain much of the force out of any coming counteroffensive by forcing Ukraine to move much of its new force to block a Russian advance.
Now the possibility of a big Russia push at any point on the line seems almost ridiculous. Russian forces may not have culminated in the traditional sense, but they seem to have reached chaos levels of infighting and cross-purposes.
Every day that they can afford to wait positions Ukraine for a better, more effective punch when it comes. The number of repaired vehicles coming to Russian forces is a relative trickle. Ukraine has well over a hundred Western tanks still on the way, and that’s just a portion of what is yet to arrive. Every day, Ukrainian forces are becoming more familiar with modern, combined-arms tactics. Russian forces are not.
If Ukraine sees an unmatched opportunity, they should move. But if they can wait … wait.
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