Michael Gordon and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. officials say they have bought more time by delivering older American-made systems, scrounging up Soviet-era missiles and coaching the Ukrainians on how to fire their missiles more selectively. The U.S. is working with seven countries, including Sweden and Spain, to provide the U.S.-made I-HAWK air defense system to Ukraine. Some of the air defenses have been “MacGyvered” with parts from a variety of systems. The U.S. has also improvised by providing Sea Sparrow antiship missiles for Ukraine’s Soviet-era Buk launchers, a contrivance that U.S. officials have dubbed the “FrankenSAM.”The U.S. and allied nations are scrambling to buttress Ukraine’s air defenses for its upcoming counteroffensive after waves of Russian missile attacks whittled down Kyiv’s stockpile of antiaircraft missiles.
Neither side has been able to take firm control of the skies over Ukraine throughout the brutal war, now in its second year, and the success of Ukraine’s forthcoming counteroffensive depends on its ability to keep Russia’s warplanes from pummeling its troops and infrastructure.
“Denying Russian aircraft the freedom to operate over Ukraine has been a precondition for every Ukrainian success throughout the entire war,” said Ian Williams, the author of a new report on Russia’s missile attacks to be issued Friday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. “That’s as true as ever.”
Pentagon documents prepared in February and leaked on social media last month warned that Russian warplanes could penetrate Ukraine’s airspace as Kyiv this spring ran out of SA-10 and SA-11 surface-to-air missiles, which can engage targets above 20,000 feet.
U.S. officials say they have bought more time by delivering older American-made systems, scrounging up Soviet-era missiles and coaching the Ukrainians on how to fire their missiles more selectively.
The U.S. is working with seven countries, including Sweden and Spain, to provide the U.S.-made I-HAWK air defense system to Ukraine.
The U.S. has also improvised by providing Sea Sparrow antiship missiles for Ukraine’s Soviet-era Buk launchers, a contrivance that U.S. officials have dubbed the “FrankenSAM.”
Some of the air defenses have been “MacGyvered” with parts from a variety of systems, William LaPlante, the Pentagon’s acquisitions chief, told the Council on Foreign Relations Wednesday, referring to the process of improvisation. “That’s the word of the year.”
The U.S., Norway and Denmark are also sending AMRAAM air-to-air missiles for use in Ukraine’s NASAMs air defense launchers, according to the leaked documents.
The Patriot air defense battery that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine is being held back from combat, along with other military equipment, while Kyiv prepares for the counteroffensive, a U.S. official said.
Ukraine's Air Defenses
Soviet-era weapons, donations from NATO countries help Ukraine fend off Russian bombers, rockets
S-300/SA-10
Prewar starting
inventory: 250
Losses: 50
Available: 200
Supply: Extremely
limited
Weight: 50 tons
Firing range: 15.5 to
93.2 miles
(depending on warhead)
In service: 1978
Origin: Soviet Union
Four surface-to-air-missiles
16.4 ft.
13.1 ft.
39.4 ft.
GEPARD
Systems provided:
37 (Germany)
Supply: Plentiful
Weight: 47.3 tons
Firing range: 7.5 miles
In service: 1973
Origin: West Germany
Two Oerlikon GDF 35 mm guns
10.8 ft.
12.2 ft.
25.2 ft.
Note: Dimensions shown for S300V
Sources: Center for Strategic & International Studies (S-300, Gepard systems provided and supply); Military Factory (S-300 crew); Military Today (S-300 dimensions, Gepard specs)
Jemal R. Brinson/THE WALL STREET JOURNALDespite the efforts to ensure a supply of air-defense missiles, Ukraine faces a formidable challenge. Kyiv must defend civilian and military infrastructure against missile strikes while also protecting its troops. Should Ukraine’s stock of missiles not be fully replenished, “this balancing act becomes harder,” the CSIS report says.
Among its many advantages over Ukraine, Russia can launch missiles from sites out of range of Ukrainian firepower, from its own territory or ships on the Black Sea.
While Moscow has lost more than 70 planes in the conflict, most of its air force is intact, and Russia holds a large stockpile of unguided bombs that it could drop on Ukraine if Kyiv’s air defenses falter.
Ukraine began the war with one of the world’s most robust networks of surface-to-air missiles, a legacy from the Soviet Union. That included more than 30 battalions of S-300 long-range systems, according to Vasily Kashin, the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, in addition to BUK M1 and Tor shorter-range batteries and aging systems such as the Osa and S-125.
U.S. officials urged the Ukrainian military to keep its launchers on the move to keep them hidden from Russian surveillance, according to Sam Charap, a specialist in Russia and Ukraine at the RAND Corporation.
As the battle unfolded, satellites and surveillance aircraft controlled by Western militaries and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization supplied Ukraine with early warning of Russian flights and missile launches. This enabled Kyiv’s air-defense batteries to switch their radar systems on and off as needed, further frustrating Russian attempts to detect and eliminate them, Mr. Charap said.
The Ukrainians also benefited from the Russian Air Force’s poor tactics and training.
“Russia has much newer aircraft and a much bigger fleet,” said retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who served as NATO’s commander from 2013 to 2016. The first thing Russia’s Air Force needed to do was suppress their adversary’s air defenses, “and this is where I think the greatest Russian failure has been.”
Having failed to dominate the skies over Ukraine in the early months of the war, Russian planes relied heavily on firing standoff missiles from outside Ukrainian airspace.
At first, the Russians fired some of their most advanced air- and sea-launched cruise missiles from Tu-160 strategic bombers and ships at sea. As those supplies dwindled, the Russians began aiming at Ukrainian targets with less sophisticated types of weapons, including variants of the S-300 surface-to-air system that aren’t generally accurate in a land attack role.
As the war continued, the targets on which Russia focused shifted. Initially, the Russians sought to strike airfields and then transportation links. By October, Russia mounted a furious effort to take down Ukraine’s electrical grid, firing more than 600 air- and sea-launched cruise missiles between Oct. 10 and the end of 2022.
It also began to use Iranian-made drones to search for gaps in Ukraine’s antiaircraft network and to try to overwhelm the nation’s defenses. The waves of Russian attacks led the Ukrainians to use many of their air-defense missiles.
“The Ukrainian armed forces are very close to the limit of surface-to-air missiles for the S-300 system and for BUK,” said Andrii Ryzhenko, a former Ukrainian Navy captain now with the Center for Defense Strategies, a Kyiv think tank with close ties to the military. “This is why there was this request for Western-produced, ground-based air-defense systems.”
The Russians appear to have used much of their missile inventory, too. Over a period of nearly two months early this year, Russia didn’t carry out any major cruise missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, though drone attacks continued, according to data provided by Ukraine’s Air Force Command.Despite the risks, the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fly about 10 missions a day, focusing principally on the country’s east and south, according to Ukrainian pilots and officials.
In groups of up to four aircraft, Ukrainian fighters have launched U.S.-made anti-radar missiles at Russian antiaircraft systems, freeing up other planes to strike Russian ground troops.
“It’s a very dangerous game,” said a Ukrainian fighter pilot who uses the call sign Juice. “We are not able to fight equally. Fortunately, we are still able to resist them, to hold the line. We use very old stuff, old rockets, old bombs. We fight with the means we have, as we can, based on the realities that exist.”
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