How Bakhmut Combat Would Change If Wagner Replaced By Russian Army

Ukrainian forces believe that if Wagner actually withdraws from the Bakhmut fighting as its leader has threatened, the Russian assaults will be less effective. 

The Ukrainians have been anticipating this change for weeks now as their intelligence suggests Wagner recruitment has not kept up with its battlefield losses. They believe that Prigozhin's complaints about artillery shortages are untrue given the volume of fire they are still experiencing and that his statements are excuses for his troops' inability to take Bakhmut despite unimaginable losses. JL

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

The Wagner mercenary group, many of them prisoners recruited to fight in exchange for pardons, have been a blunt, effective instrument, suggesting that a full withdrawal could weaken or stall street fighting. (But) Ukraine had been expecting for some time Wagner’s unraveling because its losses have exceeded new recruitment, with about 200 Wagner soldiers killed or wounded per day (and) didn’t believe Prigozhin’s claim of ammunition shortages because Russian forces continue intensive artillery bombardments in Bakhmut. “It was a justification for failures on the battlefield.”

Combatants with the Wagner mercenary group, many of them prisoners recruited to fight in exchange for pardons, have been a blunt, effective instrument in Russia’s arsenal. Wagner has steadily advanced in urban combat, squeezing the Ukrainian army into a few dozen city blocks in the city’s western neighborhoods.

A full withdrawal of Wagner from Bakhmut — as the head of the mercenary group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, threatened on Friday — would reshape the battle, even if rotations of regular Russian soldiers replaced Wagner forces on the front lines.

Ukrainian soldiers have said a blend of Wagner mercenaries and other Russian forces have been fighting in the city for some time. The prisoner brigades, however, have been a signature tactic on the Russian side, used to wear down Ukrainian defenses for attacks by more skilled soldiers who follow the initial risky assaults.

The battle for Bakhmut has been fought in two related theaters: in street combat inside the city and in fields and villages to the northwest and southwest, where Russian forces are trying to encircle Ukrainian soldiers by cutting access roads.

Wagner has led the fighting in Bakhmut, while regular Russian army units have played a larger role in the fighting on the outskirts.

The exact makeup of the forces in both areas is unclear, although Ukrainian soldiers in the city last month said a majority of the Russian forces were mercenaries, suggesting that a full withdrawal could weaken or stall street fighting.

In his video threatening to pull out on Wednesday, Mr. Prigozhin said the Russian army was losing its battles outside Bakhmut and that his forces didn’t have sufficient artillery ammunition.

Ukrainian military analysts cautioned of deception, suggesting that Russian forces could be feigning infighting, weakness and a withdrawal to lure Ukraine into an ill-considered attack on well-defended positions.

The Ukrainian military might find that “no one has gone anywhere,” Col. Petro Chernyk, a commentator on the war for Ukrainian media, said at a news conference Friday in Kyiv.

But Serhiy Cherevaty, the spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern military command, said Ukraine had been expecting for some time Wagner’s unraveling because its losses have exceeded new recruitment, with about 200 Wagner soldiers killed or wounded per day.

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“Their destruction on such a scale continues, and they do not find a source of replacement,” he said. “Wagner will be destroyed in Bakhmut.”

Mr. Cherevaty said he didn’t believe Mr. Prigozhin’s claim of ammunition shortages because Russian forces continue intensive artillery bombardments in Bakhmut. “It was a justification for failures on the battlefield,” he said.