But the new urgency - following Wagner's Prigozhin - is also a reflection of the growing Russian concern that Ukraine's coming offensive is likely to retake more occupied Ukrainian territory as well as further degrade the already depleted and embarrassed Russian military. JL
Uliana Pavlova and Tim Lister report in CNN:
Russia is "interested" in ending the conflict in Ukraine "as soon as possible," Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday. (Meanwhile) Russian ground forces in the country are approaching exhaustion and there are few reinforcements available. (They) are estimated to be at 63% of "combat sustainability." 527 out of 544 available Russian battalions are committed to the operation, and 474 are already inside Ukraine. In Donetsk, 19 out of 91 battalions were adjudged as “combat ineffective.” Russia has lost a staggering 2,048 during the conflict.Russia is "interested" in ending the conflict in Ukraine "as soon as possible," Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday during a news conference with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira in Brasilia.
Lavrov also thanked his Brazilian colleagues for the "excellent understanding" of the situation in Ukraine, and said Russia is grateful for Brazil's "desire to contribute" to the search for possible solutions.
The Russian foreign minister is also expected to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva today, according to the Brazilian Foreign Ministry’s schedule published online.
Ukraine has repeatedly said that peace in the conflict will only be achieved if Russia restores the country's borders and Kyiv takes back Crimea.
“Real peace means restoring the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. Real peace means a safe homeland for the targeted people in the Ukrainian Crimea,” Ukrainain Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an address last week to the Black Sea Security Conference in Bucharest.
“I reiterated Brazil’s stance in contributing to a peaceful solution to the conflict, reminding President Lula’s manifestations in seeking the formation of a group of friendly countries to mediate the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine,” Vieira said in a televised press conference.
Vieira also highlighted Brazil’s stance against unilateral sanctions.
“Such measures, in addition to having the approval of the security council of the United Nations, also have a negative impact on the economy all over the world, and in particular in underdeveloped countries, most of whom haven’t fully recovered from the pandemic,” Vieira said.
Russian ground forces in the country are approaching exhaustion and there are few reinforcements available. Ukrainian air defenses are depleted, making any counteroffensive vulnerable to Russian air superiority. And the United States does not expect the war to end this year.
The 53 documents reviewed by CNN provide a snapshot of capabilities and vulnerabilities as perceived by the US Defense Department in the first quarter of this year.
Snapshots are inherently risky: Circumstances change, as do resources and intentions. But the documents tend to confirm that Ukrainian forces are preparing for an offensive and that Russia is putting extensive effort into holding what it already has, while looking to aviation to blunt any Ukrainian attacks.
And if the Russians were unaware of the way the Ukrainian military would design its counteroffensive, the documents may have given them some useful indicators.
Russian brigades mauled
Several of the documents, which appear to date largely from February and March, tend to confirm that Russia has committed the vast majority of its army battalions to its war on in Ukraine. Despite the mobilization last autumn, which potentially added 300,000 soldiers to the Russian ranks, a significant minority of these battalions are described as “combat ineffective” – short of men and equipment.
One document says that a substantial number are deployed in the south of the country – with an 527 out of 544 available Russian battalions are committed to the operation, and 474 are already inside Ukraine. Estimated 23,000 personnel in Zaporizhzhia and another 15,000 in Kherson. That suggests the Russians expect any Ukrainian offensive to target that region.
But in Donetsk, for example, 19 out of 91 battalions were adjudged as “combat ineffective.”
Russia still has vast inventories of hardware, but the documents suggest that some of the best has already been lost, and older, less reliable armor is being dusted off. One says that Russia continued to fall behind stated goals for replenishing equipment and personnel, and was incorporating “older, less accurate munitions systems.”
The documents provide some startling estimates, suggesting that at one point early this year Russia had 419 tanks in theater, but had lost a staggering 2,048 during the conflict. They also suggest that at that time, Ukraine had more armored personnel carriers (APCs) and fighting vehicles in the field than did Russia.
This feeds into a broader estimate of what the Pentagon calls combat sustainability – the ability to continue fighting. While assessing both sides as having ‘moderate’ sustainability, Russian ground forces are at 63%; the Ukrainians at 83%.
According to documents obtained by the Washington Post, this degradation extends to Russian special forces, or Spetsnaz. One satellite image published by the Post showed the half-empty base of a Spetsnaz brigade in southern Russia in November 2022, with the comment that “all but one of five Russian Separate Spetsnaz Brigades that returned from combat operations in Ukraine in late summer 2022 suffered significant losses.”
CNN has not reviewed that document and cannot verify its contents. But throughout the conflict, Russian military bloggers and others have reported on the losses of special forces as they have been misused – often being thrown into battles where regular troops have failed.
Given that special forces require several years of training and play a critical offensive role, such losses are undoubtedly damaging.
1 comments:
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