The Reason Russian Attacks In Ukraine Have Declined Significantly

There are two reasons for the decline: the first is that the Russians can no longer sustain such assaults as they have effectively wasted all of the conscripts mobilized last fall. 

The second reason is that they are trying to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. But since the front line is 700 miles long, they are incapable of defending all of it. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Russia is no longer attempting a wide scale advance, but continues to conduct a level of small “reconnaissance-in-force” attacks to feel out Ukrainian positions. The high (attack) levels seen in March reflect levels also seen in February and represent most of the winter as Russia was seeking to conduct an offensive in the areas around Kupyansk, Kremmina, Donetsk, and Vuhledar in addition to the continuing fight at Bakhmut. The decline in attacks during the second half of March mark the end of Russia’s general offensive as well as a shifting of troops to concentrate on Bakhmut.

RUSSIAN ASSAULTS LEVELED OFF IN APRIL

Almost every morning, the Ukrainian general staff issues a situation update, either as text or video, in which some statistics are given about the intensity of Russian attacks over the previous 24 hours. Those statistics generally (though not always) include the number of missiles and drones launched at Ukrainian cities, the number of locations shelled by Russian forces, and the number of Russian assaults against Ukrainian military positions.

For the last couple of months, I’ve been tracking that last number in hopes of finding some way to take the “temperature” of the war. As the month of April ends, this is likely the last time I’ll update this chart—at least for awhile. 

Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions by day, March and April

The high levels seen in early March reflect the levels that were also seen in February and represent typical values through most of the winter as Russia was seeking to conduct an offensive in the areas around Kupyansk, Kremmina, Donetsk, and Vuhledar in addition to the continuing fight at Bakhmut. The decline in attacks during the second half of March can be thought of as marking the end of Russia’s general offensive as well as a shifting of troops to concentrate on Bakhmut (and to a lesser extent Avdiivka). On an average day in April, sixteen of the listed Russian assaults took place at Bakhmut alone.

At this point, it’s unclear that this number is measuring anything except that Russia is no longer attempting a wide scale advance, but continues to conduct a level of small “reconnaissance-in-force” attacks to feel out Ukrainian positions outside of Bakhmut. 

Over the next week, my intention is to move to another section of the data provided each day: the details of locations assaulted by Russia and shelled by Russia each day. Using that data, I’m going to walk the front line again, in hopes of getting a clearer view of the situation in advance of the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Unless, of course, Ukraine moves first. Monday is the first day of May.

Shortly before dawn, an attack on the Russian oil refinery and fuel storage field at Sevastopol in Crimea resulted in an enormous fire that sent a column of thick, black smoke above the nearby city. Russian sources claim that the fire is the result of a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukrainian government sources have not confirmed that Ukraine is responsible, but have stated that the fuel at this facility was intended for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. They also had one more message to pass along: “The explosions in Sevastopol are God's punishment for Uman!"

The attack—assuming it was an attack—appears to have struck a large collection of storage tanks at a Chornomornaftogaz facility carrying not just crude oil, but refined products like diesel fuel. By early Saturday morning, the fire appears to have completely consumed ten large tanks containing around 300,000 barrels. Even at the discount Russia is forced to give when selling oil on the international market, that’s over $19 million worth of product if this was all crude oil. Far more if much of it was refined products.

The fire has since spread to at least seven more tanks in the same storage field, likely raising the total amount consumed to around half a million barrels. Another set of tanks is nearby, but the fire has not ignited this second cluster. Yet. 

According to Russian sources, the fire was triggered by a wave of Chinese-made Mugin-5 drones, which cost $9,500 each and are capable of flying over 800 km. Those sources say that Ukraine launched three groups of these drones from an area near Odesa, with some being brought down by electronic warfare and one being shot down by air defense systems near a village deep inside Russia. However, there is no way to confirm the accuracy of any of the Russian reports and this information is definitely suspect (especially since the location of the drone reported shot down looks to be beyond even the longest cruising range of the Mugin-5).

If this was a Ukrainian drone attack, it followed closely on the heels of a Russian strike on an apartment building in the southwest Ukrainian city of Uman which resulted in at least 26 deaths, including the deaths of four children. 

One thing is sure, fuel storage facilities burn … enthusiastically.

In 2019, Iran successfully attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia using drones, triggering long lasting fires and significant damage. Oil products have not gotten less flammable since then.

Fuel depots are a legitimate target of war. An attack on a fuel depot on Belgorod by a pair of Ukrainian helicopters in April 2022 was one of the first significant attacks that Ukraine made across the Russian border. Systematically attacking such facilities helped complicate Russian logistics in advance of both the Kharkiv counteroffensive and the liberation of Kherson.

Over the fall, Ukraine conducted a program of hitting fuel depots in Russian occupied areas of Ukraine and in nearby areas of Russia. In November, Ukraine reportedly used drones to hit a fuel depot in the Orel oblast of Russia that was over 200 km from the Ukrainian border.

On social media this morning there are frequently expressed concerns about the environmental damage caused by the reported Ukrainian attack. While the towering column of black smoke does look apocalyptic, that's what happens when 300,000 barrels of petroleum products gets burned. This oil was always going to be burned. Russia’s plan was just to burn it a little at a time, powering their warships around the Black Sea. Ukraine changed that plan.

Google maps recently updated the satellite images in Crimea, so enjoy this high resolution image of the affected tank farm.

For now, just enjoy the scene, which is available from dozens of different vantage points around the city. Perhaps pull out a Deep Purple album while you watch. Seems appropriate.

The Ukrainian military sent out an additional warning to residents of Russian-occupied Crimea this morning, warning them to stay clear of potential military targets. Seems like good advice.

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RUSSIA EXPANDS ITS GENOCIDE PLANS

At this point, it’s not difficult to find Russian officials and pundits declaring that Ukraine is not a real country, Ukrainian culture is not real, and that all Ukrainians need to die. But in case anyone thought Russia’s plans for genocide ended at the Ukrainian border, here’s Vladimir Putin’s right hand man extending the calls for extermination to Poland.

Speaking of Poland, there are reports this morning that Poland has found remains of a missile that hit their territory in December and which is thought to be a stray Russian cruise missile of the same type used in Uman. That missile likely took a wrong turn over Belarus and landed deep inside Poland. Polish fighter jets reportedly tracked the incoming missile at the time, but evidence couldn’t be found until this week.

This is unlikely to affect Poland’s, and NATO’s, involvement in the invasion … but that’s not a sure thing.