The Crippling Cost of Russia's "Bakhmut Fixation"

An essential part of Ukraine's decision to stay and fight at Bakhmut is based on the evidence that - contrary to military logic - Russia has become fixated on Bakhmut to the point of obsession. 

Not only is that costing it tens of thousands of troops as well as tons of weaponry and equipment, all, so far, to no avail, but it is also preventing Russia forces from attacking elsewhere in Ukraine where they might have more success or disrupt Ukrainian offensive plans as well as better defending key Russian positions where Ukraine may attack. As is true in most fields of endeavor, the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos, image AFP via Getty Images:

On Friday, the Ukrainian military reported it had repelled 49 Russian attacks at various points along the line, primarily around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. A report published yesterday indicated that Russia is now incapable of sustaining multiple lines of attack. A lot of small offensives are all happening in proximity. Russia appears to be incapable of directing coordinated actions across a large force. (Due to) bad logistics, poor command, equipment shortages, they can put together an offensive at only one location at a time. It’s investing everything it has in Bakhmut and can’t mount a major effort elsewhere unless that fight is brought to a conclusion.

On Friday, the Ukrainian military reported that it had repelled 49 Russian attacks at various points along the line, primarily around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. 

At Kreminna, Russian forces were again reportedly turned back at Dibrova, indicating that Ukraine continues to hold this position just outside the city. Russian forces failed in an attack near Stelmakhivka, west of Svatove and in the perpetual effort to take Novoselivske. There were reports on Thursday that Russia had used aircraft to bomb at power station in the forest south of Kreminna, but that station primarily provides power to the area Russia currently occupies … I’m probably missing something to explain why Russia would risk aircraft on the frontline to destroy a target that benefited them. Or maybe I’m not.

Ukraine reports that they repelled Russian attacks in the Bohdanivka and Predtechyne areas of Bakhmut, Russia is reporting more success there. Right now, I don’t have the evidence to say. However, Ukraine seems to have been repelled by Russian attacks outside the city, including at Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske. One concerning name on the list this morning: Novomarkove. This town is southwest of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, which could represent Russia advancing across fields to attack in a new direction. Half of all the attacks reported on Friday appear to have been in the Bakhmut area.

Barely any actions were reported around Avdiivka, at least in the form of attempted advances by Russian forces. That’s also true of positions across the southern part of the line—though there are reports that Russia is gathering forces for an attack at, you guessed it, Vuhledar.

Much of what is in the morning update aligns with a report that was published yesterday indicating that, according to Ukraine at least, Russia is now incapable of sustaining multiple lines of attack. It’s investing everything it has in Bakhmut and can’t mount a major effort elsewhere unless that fight is brought to a conclusion.

Russia isn’t just hurting for equipment and ammunition; it’s seriously short on leadership at every level. Bad logistics, poor command, equipment shortages … add it all together, and it seems that no matter how many people Putin shovels into Ukraine, they can put together an offensive at only one location at a time. Even then, this is not actually a “large offensive.” It’s a lot of small offensives that are all happening in proximity. Russia appears to be incapable of directing coordinated actions across a large force. 

That doesn’t mean Russia can’t mount an effective defense. At locations west of Kherson city, Russian forces showed they could defend positions even when they had diminished equipment and were under withering fire. So no one should assume that Russia’s inability to conduct a coordinated offense means it will be hot-knife-meets-butter time when Ukraine goes on the offense.