Is Russia's Bakhmut Advance Only Because Ukraine Is Now Purposely Withdrawing?

There have been reports that Russian troops around Bakhmut are suddenly advancing after eight months of stalemate. 

But rather than this being a sign of Russian success, it may be that Ukraine has finally determined that Bakhmut has served its purpose - having drawn virtually all Russian military attention - just as Ukraine wanted it to - prior to the counteroffensive. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

There are indications Ukraine is removing some of its forces from the cauldron at the center of Bakhmut. However, that pull back may not be in response to what Wagner Group is doing this week. It may be the other way around. Wagner may be advancing because Ukraine is pulling back. Right on schedule. Back in February soldiers inside the city wrote: “Our task from the beginning of the year: ‘Hold Bakhmut until mid-April." The Ukrainian army has gathered sufficient forces, about 200,000 trained fighters, who have undergone two to three months of training and coordination, are ready to carry out combat missions. With Russia focusing on only Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces could go anywhere.

This morning, as it has every morning for the last eight months, Bakhmut holds. The question now is: Has Bakhmut held long enough?

That’s a different questions from “Why is Ukraine fighting in Bakhmut?” or “Should Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut to save its forces?” Both of those were about the appropriateness of Bakhmut as a theater of combat, and whether Ukraine was causing sufficient damage to the Russian military by remaining in this place to justify its own considerable losses. Months ago, the Ukrainian leadership made it clear that, so far as they were concerned, the answers to these were “Because so long as we keep fighting there, another city is not being destroyed” and a very definite “Yes.”

The constant stream of obituaries that finish with “in fighting near Bakhmut” makes it clear that the cost of holding this city has been very, very high. And there are some indications that Ukraine is backing away from the city, removing some of its forces from the cauldron at the center—yes, for real this time. However, that pull back may not be directly in response to what Wagner Group is doing this week. In fact, it may be the other way around. Wagner may be advancing because Urkaine is pulling back. Right on schedule.

Back in February, one of the soldiers inside the city wrote this on a Telegram post: “Our task from the beginning of the year: ‘Hold Bakhmut until the beginning of April.” Similar messages targeted “mid-April.” Last month, Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed to be aware that something was coming around the same date, warning that April was the date for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

Now it’s mid-April, and Ukraine may be withdrawing from the streets of Bakhmut. But are they ready to conduct the counteroffensive that could make all the sacrifice in the city worth it?

Maybe Prigozhin’s letter last month was effective, because there are reports that much of the advances in Bakhmut over the last few weeks have come as Wagner Group is getting better support from regular Russian military. That combined firepower is reportedly giving Russian forces in the city a boost, perhaps explaining how they were able to move from the river to the railway station much more quickly than they captured blocks to the east and south. 

UK MOD update on Ukraine

Once again, Russian forces are occupying the railway station at the center of Bakhmut, and it doesn’t seem to be “managed to get a few troops near before withdrawing” this time. Reports are that Russia has solidified its position to the east of the station and that Ukrainian forces are no longer fighting in the area across the railroad line. To the north of the station, those tracks still look to be the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian forces, with fire being exchanged across the rails. To the south, Russian forces are again reportedly pressing in to the T0504 highway.

Russia now occupies over 80% of Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

All the old familiar places that Russia and Ukraine traded back and forth for so long—the winery, the drywall factory, etc.—are off the map to the east. This is just the last western nub of the city. However, don’t expect Ukraine to vanish from the rest of Bakhmut overnight. Reports continue to indicate that fighting is going on block by block, house by house.

Wagner and Russian Telegram are also filled with messages about Ukraine leaving behind traps and remote controlled explosives, so that when Russians seek shelter in buildings Ukrainian forces just abandoned, they get a nasty surprise. How many of these reports are true is hard to say, but the constant spread of these stories probably makes Russian forces very reluctant to step through any door in Bakhmut.

Russian forces are reportedly “flooding into” Bakhmut from the east and north. Additionally, as noted in the UK situational report, artillery fire in the city is intensifying. Earlier this week, there were reports that Ukraine had also sent more reserves to the area, however those reserves don’t seem to have entered the city proper—which appears to be a very good idea. Because Russian artillery is able to drop into that remaining area from three sides, making the what’s left or Ukrainian-controlled Bakhmut a very difficult place to be.

Right now, it appears that Ukraine is conducting, and will continue to conduct, a “fighting retreat” from Bakhmut. Unless Russian forces are somehow exhausted—and at this point, we’re passed what seems like a thousand different experts using some variant on the phrase “almost culminated”—it looks like Ukraine will withdraw from Bakhmut around the end of the month.

In a lengthy letter on Telegram, Prigozhin admits that the value of the city for Russia is extremely limited.

The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Siversk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinivka, Druzhkivka and Chasiv Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called "Donbas ring" and form a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a short-term victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbas.

Bakhmut the city, the citizens, the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have fought there, the thousands who have died, have held the attention of the Russian military for eight months. In that time, Ukraine has acquired new Western weapons and its forces have undergone extensive training. Most,of the images which the the Ukrainian military has published for the last few months is not of combat along the front lines, but large groups of Ukrainian forces drilling and training away from the lines.

This has not slipped Prigozhi’s attention.

The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200,000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have undergone two to three months of training and coordination, are ready to carry out combat missions. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 thousand to go on the offensive in various directions.

His worry is that right now, with Russia focusing on Bakhmut and only Bakhmut, those Ukrainian forces could go essentially anywhere. It’s taken months for Russia to assemble the bulk of its force in one place, and even longer for Russia to put together something that seems like a unified push in that single location. In Bakhmut, but nowhere else, Russia seems to be able to exert its will. The opinion of analysts in Ukraine, and the Pentagon, is that Russia’s logistical and command structure currently can support only one significant offensive push.

Will Ukraine be able to move in some other region before the last forces give up that remaining toehold in Bakhmut? If Russia is able to claim victory in Bakhmut, and forces of both Russian military and Wagner disperse to other locations, will it be much more difficult for Ukraine to stage an effective counteroffensive? Will Russia be able to keep the tentative cooperation it’s built in the center of Bakhmut and use it to conduct a successful operation elsewhere, maybe in less than eight grinding months, and possibly without shedding 1,000 men a day?

Yeah. Those are questions. That’s what those are. Unfortunately, they don’t come packaged with answers.

Prigozhin’s letter also claims that lengthy battles like Bakhmut are part of a U.S. plot to draw out the war, causing the Russian people to grow disillusioned with the government and turn to more liberal politicians who will end the war and move Russia into greater alignment with the West. I wish we were that smart.